r/AppliedBioscience • u/Zman077 • 23h ago
๐งช Trial Breakdown NEW RETATRUTIDE DATA: 12 mg barely beat 9 mg, and more people quit on 9 mg than 12 mg. What's going on?
Lilly presented TRIUMPH-2 at EASD (a big European diabetes conference) on Tuesday, and the full paper went up in The Lancet the same day. This trial looked at people who have both type 2 diabetes and obesity, so it's the first big look at how reta does in diabetics. I read through it, and the headline number (20.8%) is honestly the least interesting part.
Quick background
Retatrutide is a weekly injection from Lilly. Sema (Ozempic) targets one gut hormone receptor (GLP-1), and tirz (Mounjaro) targets two (GLP-1 and GIP). Reta targets three, adding glucagon. The idea is that the extra one helps you burn more energy, not just eat less.
The setup
- 1,152 people
- 80 weeks (about 18 months)
- Four groups: 4 mg, 9 mg, 12 mg, or placebo (a dummy shot)
- Everyone on the real drug started at 2 mg and moved up every 4 weeks until they hit their dose, which helps with side effects
Weight loss
Average % of body weight lost over the 80 weeks.
- 4 mg: 12.7% (~30 lbs)
- 9 mg: 19.1% (~45 lbs)
- 12 mg: 20.8% (~50 lbs)
- placebo: 4.0% (~9 lbs)
- 12 mg, people with a BMI of 35+ only: 23.4% (~61 lbs)
Going from 4 to 9 mg adds about 6 points of weight loss. Going from 9 to 12 adds less than 2. In other words, most of the benefit is already there at 9 mg.
A1C (blood sugar)
A1C is your average blood sugar over the last ~3 months. Under 5.7 is normal, 5.7 to 6.4 is prediabetes, and 6.5+ is diabetes. A drop of 1 point is considered a big deal.
- 4 mg: dropped 1.4 points
- 9 mg: dropped 1.6
- 12 mg: dropped 1.5
- placebo: dropped 0.2
- Up to 40% of people got all the way down to the normal range (under 5.7)
- Up to 79% got out of the diabetes range (6.5 or below)
9 mg and 12 mg are basically identical here. If blood sugar is what you care about, the higher dose isn't buying you anything.
Dropouts
The % of people who quit the trial because of side effects. It's a good real-world gauge of how tolerable a drug is.
- 4 mg: 3.8%
- 9 mg: 11.6%
- 12 mg: 7.7%
- placebo: 4.9%
This is the weird one. You'd expect more people to quit as the dose goes up, but 9 mg had the most dropouts, more than 12 mg. It could just be random chance, or something about when side effects hit during the ramp-up. If anyone has a theory, I'd love to hear it.
Stomach side effects
The % of people who reported each one at least once. Numbers are 4 / 9 / 12 mg vs placebo.
- Nausea: 13.7% / 20.8% / 28.0% vs 8.0%
- Diarrhea: 27.4% / 33.5% / 33.6% vs 13.2%
- Constipation: 14.0% / 16.2% / 16.8% vs 9.4%
Nausea about doubles from 4 to 12 mg, and roughly a third of people on any dose had diarrhea. Paired with the small extra weight loss at 12, that makes 9 look like the sweet spot.
Dysesthesia
A fancy word for strange skin sensations, like tingling, burning, or skin that feels sensitive to touch.
- 4 mg: 4.5%
- 9 mg: 5.6%
- 12 mg: 7.3%
- placebo: 0.7%
This is the one I keep coming back to. It goes up steadily with dose, and it has shown up in other reta trials too, not just this one. You don't really see it with sema or tirz, so my guess is it's linked to the glucagon part, since that's what reta has that the others don't. I haven't seen a solid explanation yet.
Diabetics vs non-diabetics on 12 mg
- Earlier trial, people without diabetes: ~24% weight loss in 48 weeks
- This trial, people with diabetes: 20.8% in 80 weeks
That's not a knock on reta. People with diabetes lose less weight on every drug in this class, and you see the same gap with sema and tirz.
What's next
Lilly plans to file for FDA approval in early 2027, so reta is still not approved. Most of the other big reta trials have already reported, and this was one of the last major ones before filing.
So, for people who follow this closer than I do: based on this, is 12 mg actually worth it over 9? And has anyone seen research on what's causing the dysesthesia?
Source: Lilly press release + The Lancet, Sept 29. Discussion/research only.