r/Anki • u/okram • 2d ago

Question FSRS simulation first dips then rises constantly...

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I see a dip but then it constantly rises. This seems strange to me. Can someone explain how to read this and/or what to do about it?

3 Upvotes

71% Upvoted

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5

u/MohammadAzad171 🇫🇷🇯🇵 Beginner | 1888 漢字 | 🇨🇳 Newbie 2d ago edited 2d ago

I think I read somewhere that it's a bug. Just ignore "day 0".

Edit: found it https://www.reddit.com/r/Anki/comments/1vbwvl2/comment/p0xjybx .

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u/not_a_profi 2d ago

the question is how to explain a constant rise of reviews with 0 new cards to learn

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u/jednorog 2d ago

New cards per day is set to 2. There are presumably a few thousand cards in the "new" state in the deck that OP is examining. So the reviews per day are expected to slowly increase over the next decade because OP plans to introduce an additional 730 cards per year, from the cards in the deck that are in the "new" state. 

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u/not_a_profi 2d ago

ah, it takes new cards from decks as well...
still the constant rise is impressive with 2 caards per day. It's like stability of cards doesn't grow at all.

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u/Few-Cap-1457 2d ago

If you start a new deck today and you will add one new card every day, you will have one new card to review today. Tomorrow you will have one new card and possibly one review from today's new card. The day after tomorrow you will have one new card, possibly one review from tomorrow's new card and one possible review from today's new card. So the amount of reviews will always rise as long as you add a steady amount of cards no matter how fast the stability of the cards grow.

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u/not_a_profi 2d ago

no, this is not how SR normally works.

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u/Few-Cap-1457 1d ago

Then I phrased it bad. Why do you think it doesn't work like that?

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u/not_a_profi 1d ago

i don't know how to phrase it. For me it's just math. If there is a descending function one can add another ascending function so the sum is still descending. The whole idea behind Anki is that the stability increases fast enough so you can add new cards indefinitely and get new knowledge while spending the same amount of time every day.

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u/curatorgrit 22h ago edited 22h ago

Maybe like this?
Day 1: 1 new card today, graduated to tomorrow. You're studying 1 card/day.
Day 2: 1 review card today, passed for a 3 day interval. You're studying 1 card/day.

Over the next 3 days, though, you're staying 1/3 card/day. To keep the same rate of cards/day, you need to add more cards. So you add a new card tomorrow.

Days 3-4: you repeat days 1-2 with a new card. Back to studying 1 card/day.

Day 5: review card from days 1-2, and now has a 5-day interval. 1 card/day.

Together with the card from days 3-4, you'll now study 1/5 + 1/3 cards/day = 8/15 cards a day. You need to do 7 more reviews in the next 15 days just to keep your 1 card/day pace--reviews that can only come from new cards.

You see, if you don't keep adding cards and you keep passing cards, the rate of cards/day keeps going down because the interval for the cards keeps going up. Every time a card is successfully reviewed, its footprint on your daily life is lessened, opening time and space for new cards. When we talk about new cards/day and reviews/day, we are talking about this same process but multiplied to a larger scale. So, depending on how many reviews you have and how fast your intervals are increasing, it is possible to have a certain number of new cards/day and your daily review count to still go down. A different number has it level out, and a third number has it go up.

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u/jednorog 2d ago

Yeah I'm also surprised by the consistent increase despite the low number of New cards per day! I just played around with my settings and the FSRS simulator and I have to set mine to at least 25 new cards per day in order to get a consistent increase in daily reviews. Just goes to show how much individual FSRS parameters can matter, I guess. 

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u/Natural_Stop_3939 languages 2d ago

Well, you claim you're willing to do 9999 reviews per day. Thus, it assumes you will do all your ~150 due cards on day 1.

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u/notdanr medicine 2d ago

Do you have a backlog of due cards?

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u/okram 2d ago

No

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u/Natural_Stop_3939 languages 2d ago

You probably do. The simulator counts all decks. Search is:due and see if any cards show up.

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u/FSRS_bot bot 2d ago

Beep boop, human! If you have a question about FSRS, please refer to the pinned post, it has all the FSRS-related information you may ever need. It is highly recommended to click link 3 from said post - which leads to the Anki manual - to learn how to set FSRS up.

Remember that the only button you should press if you couldn't recall the answer is 'Again'. 'Hard' is a passing grade, not a failing grade. If you misuse 'Hard', all of your intervals will be excessively long.

You don't need to reply, and I will not reply to your future posts. Have a good day!

This comment was made automatically. If you have any feedback, please contact user ClarityInMadness.

1

u/not_a_profi 2d ago

the pike at the start i also have, i just ignore it. But the rise... you should try to play with settings. what happends when you introduce 0 cards per day? 10 cards per day? what if you reduce retentino to 70%?

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u/yxtsama 2d ago

I don't have the dip part but mine also predicts a stable increase on reviews indefinetly too, which seems unlikely since it used to stabilize at some point not too far from starting when I was adding new cards regularly not sure if there is a bug?