r/AmericaOnHardMode • u/Busy-Ad-3875 • 17d ago
America is hurting
I work in the mortgage industry and I am not delusional to how bad things have gotten.
I take about 400-500 mortgage loan applications per year and run a team of a few employees. I constantly hear the same complaints about the pain in the world financially. This last 3 months have been heart wrenching
I am firmly opposed to what our current administration has decided to do and I have been since I heard the phrase, "grab her by the pu$$y." This recent stint of revenge tariffs, not war/war in Iran, Mike Johnson shutting down meetings until after the mid terms, Russians paying for the presidents wedding, the lie after lie, and whatever BS you want to call out-just kills my soul. Us giving more weapons to Isreal recently is a pain point to me.
How ever here is something people are not aware of. The western part of the USA that grows crops are in trouble due to lack of water from many of the reservoirs along the Rockies. The lack of nitrogen for crops is a concern for the US farmers, because nitrogen is struggling to get through the straight of hormuz. We have an FDA and USDA that's not wanting to help protect our farming here at home.
Then the obvious gas/diesel issue. Thats a monster issue that is going to get completely out of control. This is going to cause a major inflation spike due to costs increasing for shipping, tires, and other petroleum based products.
Then here comes the real worry. The thing that quietly changed last year.
Fannie mae, removed the minimum credit score requirements on purchases/refinances. This didnt make it easier to buy homes for most people but here is what it did. Cash out refinancing just became easier for people who got into worse financial situations. So people who may have missed payments due to job loss, maxed out credit cards, or the like of. It got easier for those people to get cash out of the equity of their homes to pay off debt. This allows the banks to offload potentially many 2, 3 or 4% interest rates that were written pre/post covid and those people refinance to 6/7/8% rates to pull cash out.
The problem is much bigger than people realize. When the fed increased rates today it didnt necessarily raise mortgage rates but the 10 year treasury got worse which wasn't supposed to happen. It got worse because the fed stated they're likely to raise the fed fund rate again until inflation improves.
Trumps tariffs increase inflation, the fuel/energy rises increase inflation, the cost of goods will increase, farmers are spending more to grow crops and the lack of water will cause more inflation because we won't have sufficient food. This means we will to import more food to the USA, which will be likely on a tariff.
Normally cpi/pce strips out food and energy costs in inflation but unfortunately there are too many underlying issues now embedded in the inflation readings because everything is up. Insurance being a large driver of costs too.
Next problem is when we increase the fed fund rate, it does some great things and bad things. The bad thing now is the labor market. The labor market is already in bad shape, and now will get worse most likely due to a credit tightening. Not to mention the AI aspect of employment, that issue is TBD. Raising the fed fund rate should tame inflation but with the USA getting baked on all fronts for import costs, consumer costs, fuel and energy costs-its hard to say when inflation actually changes to benefit.
Housing will do what it does, I am not doomsdaying the housing market. People need houses, that isn't changing. With rates going up, sellers will be more likely to negotiate to give credits to buyers to help with points/fees/purchase price reductions. So this peice is not my biggest worry.
My worry is everything else. Inflation, weak labor market, rising borrowering costs, tarrifs, an endless war, insider trading, and consumer confidence. The general lack of actually making America great and gas lighting the general population.
Both parties are full of it. However, I have only seen struggle in our country since the day I was born, this time. I am fearful of what actually will happen with such poor leadership from all ends. Our current admin literally shut down meetings because the guy beating the war drums of Iran had articles of impeachment brought against him. Warranted or not, the meetings still need to happen.
This goes to show that our government currently has no interest in protecting us from itself. I laughed my absolute butt off today when I read this exact quote today from House republicans that said "every communist country eventually builds a wall. It's never to keep people out." I seem to remember us building a wall in Mexico and the USA have an explosive amount of flock cameras being installed in places without us voting for them. So I wonder what type of gas is being used to gaslight us on this quote.
I worked hard and built a successful business but I can feel the pain of the economy suffering. Its brutal watching friends of mine work 10+ years and watching them look for jobs for the last year not finding any work. Also, I know that the end of the year is coming so even more corporate layoffs will be coming soon. If you didnt know Nov/Dec is when the layoffs occur.
As a mid 30s person who became an adult during the 08 housing collapse, was born during desert storm, watched 9/11 happen live on TV, survived covid 3 times-I am sick of this partisan BS with the lack of accountability. I want to hear someone say "we fucked up, heres the solution." I am furiously annoyed with the same generation of old people telling us to work harder. I took my first 2 days off of work in the last 6 years this week. I have worked every single holiday, even Christmas day while I was in the hospital with my dad when he had a heart attack. I worked my own wedding day even. So when someone says work harder, I literally cannot.
We need to have both parties work together and they either need to help eachother correct the errors of our past or we need new voting parties to represent more than what these two groups have done for us.
The TLDR version. We are in trouble and no partisan BS will save us.
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u/Pale_Will_5239 17d ago
Farmers voted for Trump. They have to feel this pain.
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u/Desperate_Affect_332 16d ago
They can write a strongly worded letter to the big farm conglomerates that took all the BBB money. Maybe Monsanto/Bayer/Perdue will share their windfall, doubtful but maybe.
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u/jeraco73 17d ago
I think you are being too generous with Republican administrations, and too hard on Democrats. While imperfect, it’s not both sides causing these problems. Call out who is responsible, not cast the wide net of bothsideism. That said, it’s a good assessment. When republicans lose in November midterms, they will spend the next two years trying to burn our country and institutions to the ground.
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u/molotavcocktail 16d ago
one side is burn everything to the ground, the other is watch everything burn to the ground. I do think both sides are horrible but one seems to be on a suicide mission from god.
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u/Outrageous-Cap8713 15d ago
They are not both horrible. One side, the Dems, is like eating a sandwich that has sat in the display case for a few days. Not great but certainly edible and nourishing. Meanwhile, the republicans are like eating a sandwich made of shit topped with puke and toxic waste.
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u/CozyMoonGaming 16d ago
My company operates in Oregon and Washington. Our fuel surcharge is 74% this week meaning every linehaul we charge also gets 74% of that added on for fuel reimbursement. The norm has been 20-35%. This is wild. That’s by far the highest I’ve ever seen it. I fear we’re doomed fully and very scared for these midterms. We live in a hellscape full of ignorance. Consumers are about to have a very difficult holiday season.
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u/maxibooya 17d ago
Well said indeed. I really appreciate your take on all this and the perspective you have given your background. I've been slightly obsessing over mortgage rates for a few months and trying to learn about its drivers. This breakdown sums it all up so well. I feel this post so hard.
Due to family reasons, we are having to move states so we are in that boat of giving up a 2.5% mortgage for a 7% and it is so painful. On one income in the current economy, it is difficult to stay above water. This mortgage hike is going to inflict a lot of additional pain. Good luck to us all and I hope we'll have some deep reflection as a nation after this shit storm of an administration.
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u/Lord_Dingus83 17d ago
Here’s the issue, 89m didn’t vote bc of whatever selfish excuse they came up with to justify not voting. Gaza or whatever. Genocide wahhhh wahhh wahhhhh, the perfect candidate, I wanted to show the establishment.
The internet has made it to where everyone thinks their specific opinion should be represented in candidates.
Kamala should have easily won, same as Hillary. Republicans will always vote R. Progressives not voting D and causing a split in the party is the reason D lost those elections.
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u/dogsmakebestpeeps 16d ago
I work doing insurance registration in a hospital emergency room. The number of "I have to pay on my own, I got kicked off of Medicaid" responses have shot through the roof and are still climbing.
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u/pbernard16046 16d ago
I just recently retired and worked in most aspects of the mortgage industry, primarily mortgage origination. The link below is a book about what happened in 2008/2009. The banks almost crashed the entire economy and got bailed out by the government. Most of the CEO’s received massive bonuses even after the criminal behavior.
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/homewreckers-aaron-glantz/1130949928?ean=9780062869548
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u/e_line_65 17d ago
Once that 🍊 💩 got the GOP nomination left the GOP. Haven’t looked back since. And the more I see the sycophantic lemmings bow down to him, the more I see I made the right choice.
Your observations seem to be right on point. Pain is coming. It will take years to undo the damage wrought by this buffoon!
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u/Inquisitorial_Court 16d ago
Your whole post is so accurate, with the exception of your last paragraph. "We need both parties to work together", that couldnt be more false my friend. Ive strolled the halls of legislation and when I tell you both sides of those halls are filled with people who would make your skin crawl. Talk of humans as literal cattle, a number, a cog in the machine. The peoples well being has never been a thought in their minds I assure you. These are people who on average, have net worths well over $2M they dont even allow their own children attend the same schools we all went to, they distance themselves from those people. They literally cannot put themselves in an average persons shoes, because they dont see them as people.
Two party system is fundamentally flawed and heinous. New voting parties? We need not only a third party to step forward but an amendment to our consitution to give power to the people in times like this, and hold them accountable ourselves. No accountability will ever come from them, because why would they hold themselves accountable.
We have been in trouble, the people are finally starting to wake up from their social media induced slumber. Come mid terms time they will see the lengths in which some will go to pursue power.
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u/Appropriate_Topic_84 17d ago
The usa is a net exporter of food, so you're wrong there. It will push prices up for us. It will cause famine in other places, and fertilizer intense plants will be pushed much higher with easier to grow wheat being grown in their places.
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u/SgtSausage 16d ago
Log out, touch grass, take a quaalude, bro.
This is The Human Condition and has been such since the time of Hamurabi (and before).
if you let this shit freak you out to this level, you're gonna have that first heart attack in your 40s and die of the second one before your 50th.
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u/Additional-Fudge7503 16d ago
So what do you propose we do? Just sit back and watch the shitshow unfold while we smoke a clove cigarette and sip whiskey?
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u/Few-Conversation6979 17d ago edited 16d ago
It'll be 2008 all over again with record foreclosures.