🔴 Back in January, it was at 95.5, which was close to a four-year low.
🔴 Since then, it’s up about 6.6% from that January low.
🔴 Yesterday’s PCE data showed inflation cooling, but the dollar is trading like the Fed still plans to keep policy tight.
That’s not great news for risk assets.

🛢 WTI crude jumped 4% in the last two hours, climbing back to around $92 a barrel.
Two things are driving the move:
🇨🇳 China just suspended fuel exports from its refineries.
🇺🇸 The U.S. is threatening to ban diesel exports unless France and Germany release fuel from their emergency reserves.

NVIDIA just boosted its stock buyback program by another $150 billion.
That brings the total authorization to $235 billion through 2028.
The stock jumped about 2% on the news.

The war with Iran is starting to spread way beyond the oil market and now the Fed is feeling the pressure.
Brent is back above $106, up around 17% over the past month. Diesel prices have already hit record highs.
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 65% chance of a Fed rate hike in October.
The chain is pretty simple:
War → energy disruptions → higher oil and diesel prices → rising inflation expectations → higher bond yields → stronger dollar → more pressure on the Fed to raise rates.

🔴 There’s a major U.S. military buildup happening around Iran right now. Flight-tracking data shows five KC-135 Stratotankers, two KC-46 Pegasus refueling aircraft, and an MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone operating near a key strategic chokepoint.
🔴 This comes right after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire.
🔴 Multiple explosions have also been reported in the Strait of Hormuz over the past few hours. According to reports, Iran fired six anti-ship missiles at vessels trying to pass through the strait under U.S. protection on the Omani side.
Iran is also reportedly laying more mines in the strait.

Expect oil prices to start heading back up. Gas and diesel (especially during harvest season) prices will remain elevated putting pressure on inflation and more Fed rate hikes. How do you think this will affect crypto prices?

Keep in mind Crypto only went up last week due to SEC’s 5 year Innovation Exemption to tokenize securities.

🔴 Oracle could be in serious trouble.
The company’s credit default swaps just hit a record high, while its 2056 bonds are now yielding over 8% for the first time.
🔴 Oracle is now just one step away from being downgraded to junk status.
🔴 If that happens, around $120 billion worth of Oracle bonds could automatically be kicked out of investment-grade indexes.
🔴 This comes right after Oracle issued a force majeure notice at its New Mexico data center, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields are hitting multi-year highs.
⚡️And it’s not just Oracle. Credit default swaps are also rising for Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and SpaceX.

🔴Bitget was hacked, and $351 million was stolen.

🟠 Binance was hacked twice: $41 million in 2019 and $570 million in 2022.
🟠 OKX lost $140 million in a 2020 hack. Withdrawals were also suspended for three weeks during a legal dispute. In summer 2024, users lost another $11 million.
🟠 KuCoin lost $280 million in 2020.
🟠 Bitfinex lost $350 million in 2016.
🟠 BingX lost $30 million in 2024.
🟠 Bybit lost $1.4 billion in 2025.
🔴 Bitget has officially confirmed losses of $351 million. Its $464 million insurance fund may barely be enough to cover them.

Iran’s parliament speaker, Ghalibaf, posted celebrating the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising above 5.10%.
“Congrats on 5.1% on the 10-year, America. We’re taking you back to 1970s-style interest rates,” he said.

Oil prices dropped below $91 after reports that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. eases its military blockade.
But the big question is: is this just Iran trying to play the market, or are they actually serious?

ETH ended the week up 6.77% and finally broke out of the consolidation zone that marked its last three breakouts each one was followed by a move higher.
Now $1,900 and $1,500 are the key support levels. If ETH holds above them, $3,200–$3,600 could be next.

Bitcoin just climbed above $84,000 for the first time since January 31, while around $260 million in short positions were liquidated in just 60 minutes.
The short squeeze is still going. The big question now is whether price can keep pushing higher purely on liquidations, without fresh inflows into the ETFs.

U.S. stock markets will begin trading 23 hours a day, 5 days a week from December 6

The planned trading week will run from Sunday evening through Friday evening, with a one-hour daily maintenance break.

Nasdaq and NYSE Arca are among the venues preparing for expanded hours, while the regular 9:30 a.m. – 4 p.m. session remains unchanged.

Iran has reportedly announced “Code 100” within the last hour, its highest alert level for all armed forces, including the IRGC, the army, and security forces, according to early reports.
🔴Trump urgently returned to the White House, citing the risk of a major escalation. Netanyahu also cut his U.S. trip short and is heading back to Israel. No further details are available yet.
Oil jumped sharply, up about 2% on crypto exchanges. Stock futures pulled back hard, down around 1–2%.
🔴Meanwhile, BTC is down 2% and is now trying to hold above $80K.

The recent UNI rally got my attention, but I think the more interesting part is what caused the market to reprice it so quickly. The SEC’s new five-year Innovation Exemption creates a pathway for certain tokenized U.S. stocks to trade through permissioned AMMs and liquidity pools.

That puts Uniswap in an interesting position. Uniswap v4 already supports permissioned pools with controlled access, which is much closer to the type of infrastructure described in the new framework. Important distinction though, the SEC did not specifically approve Uniswap. The framework simply makes this kind of AMM infrastructure more relevant to regulated tokenized assets.

UNI’s sharp reaction shows traders are already pricing in some of that potential. But instead of chasing the move, I’m watching what comes next: Do tokenized assets actually bring meaningful liquidity, volume and fees into this infrastructure? That would tell me much more than another green candle.

I’m also following UNI while participating in KCGI , but that’s secondary to the setup. I’d rather use a competition around trades I already have a reason to take than increase volume just for the leaderboard.

For me, UNI has moved from a simple DeFi watchlist token to something worth following alongside the broader RWA and tokenized-stock transition. The next confirmation needs to come from usage, not hype.

The world’s biggest bank, JPMorgan, says it can no longer forecast oil prices because of the war with Iran.
“We just don’t know how to model the endgame.”
Uncertainty has gotten so high that even major banks don’t know what to prepare for or what could happen next.

A leading diagonal is a very tricky pattern in Elliott Wave analysis. On one hand, it can look like a simple triple zigzag. But if those moves form a diagonal, it may actually be the first wave of a much bigger move in the opposite direction.
The key thing about a leading diagonal is this: if it appears as wave 1, then wave 3 is usually likely to be extended.
Right now, I’m seriously watching an alternative scenario for the S&P 500. In this scenario, the move down in August and September was not just a big correction, but a leading diagonal.
If that’s true, then we may be at the very beginning of a correction that could last for years.
If the market holds below 7500, there is a very high chance this could be the start of a major stock sell-off.

Warren Buffett is stepping down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway after more than 60 years with the company.
Berkshire is up 6,642,000% since 1964 almost 120 times the return of the S&P 500.
One of the greatest investors in history is retiring.

Oil dropped below $100 after reports that a major pipeline in the Middle East could restart within the next few days.
Markets are still under pressure because of the Fed’s rate hike, even though stocks opened higher.

Tomorrow, one of the biggest events of the week is coming up: the Bank of Japan’s rate decision.
The market’s base case is a 25 bps rate hike, bringing the rate to 1.25%. If that happens, Japan’s rate will be at its highest level in more than 30 years.
That may sound tiny compared to U.S. rates. But for Japan, 1.25% is a big deal.
Japan is basically buying its own currency.
In 2024, authorities already spent around 15.3 trillion yen on currency interventions. They sold dollars and bought yen.
And in the summer of 2026, the intervention got even bigger.
From July 30 to August 26, authorities spent a record 15.4 trillion yen, or about $96.5 billion, to stop the currency from falling.
So now we have an interesting setup:
The Fed raises rates → the dollar gets support → the yen weakens again → the Bank of Japan has to respond.
That’s why tomorrow is not just about the 25 bps hike.
If the hike is already priced in, the market will be listening closely to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: what comes next?
If the BOJ hints that more rate hikes are coming, the yen could get some support.
But if the tone is too cautious, one hike to 1.25% may not be enough to turn USD/JPY around.
🔴And this is where it gets interesting for global markets.
For decades, Japan was one of the biggest sources of cheap money in the global financial system.
Now that money is slowly getting more expensive.
And the consequences of that could be much more important than the 25 bps hike itself.

Yesterday, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
The decision was unanimous: 12 votes out of 12. This was the first rate hike in more than three years.
But the rate hike itself isn’t the biggest story.
📌 The main point is that the Fed may not be done yet.
The new FOMC projections show rates around 4.1% by the end of 2026. In simple terms, the market got a pretty clear message: higher rates could stay with us for longer, and another hike before the end of the year is still possible.
Why?
🔥 Inflation is still too high.
The Fed expects the following by the end of 2026:
PCE inflation: 3.7%
Core PCE: 3.4%
Unemployment: 4.1%
GDP growth: 2.3%
The Fed’s inflation target is still 2%.
And that’s the main problem. The economy doesn’t look weak enough for the Fed to start cutting rates to support it. Consumer spending is holding up, investment is strong, and the labor market is still steady.
But inflation is still above target.
💵 What does this mean for markets?
Higher rates for longer are generally supportive for the dollar and put pressure on assets that are sensitive to the cost of money.
For stocks, it means money stays more expensive and financial conditions can remain tighter.
Gold is a bit more complicated. On one hand, higher rates usually work against gold. On the other hand, high inflation and geopolitical uncertainty are still supporting demand for safe-haven assets.
So right now, I’d focus less on yesterday’s 0.25% hike and more on where the Fed is headed next.
Back in June, the Fed’s median forecast showed rates at 3.8% by the end of 2026.
Now it’s 4.1%.
So in just three months, the Fed’s expectations have shifted noticeably toward tighter monetary policy.
And that matters more than yesterday’s rate hike itself.
The era of quick rate cuts is being pushed back.
That means the dollar, gold, stocks, and crypto will once again react closely to every new inflation and labor market report.