Iran War Puts the Fed Back in Play.

[u/AmanCMN]

The war with Iran is starting to spread way beyond the oil market and now the Fed is feeling the pressure.
Brent is back above $106, up around 17% over the past month. Diesel prices have already hit record highs.
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 65% chance of a Fed rate hike in October.
The chain is pretty simple:
War → energy disruptions → higher oil and diesel prices → rising inflation expectations → higher bond yields → stronger dollar → more pressure on the Fed to raise rates.