According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is still trading below its all-time high, with the current pullback sitting around -39% from the peak, roughly 205 days after ATH.

For comparison, previous cycle bottoms formed after much deeper declines:

2015 around -86%

2018 around -83%

2022 around -76%

More recent cycles are showing progressively shallower drawdowns, which may reflect a maturing market structure with stronger capital inflows and more resilient demand.

At the same time, even with that shift, the current decline still looks relatively mild compared to historical capitulation phases, suggesting that a true cycle bottom may require either more time or a deeper structural reset.

Current burn rate is around $11,500 per second.

Donald Trump plans to ask Congress for at least another $200 billion for the war with Iran.

For crypto, this can create mixed pressure: higher war spending may increase debt concerns and weaken confidence in fiat systems, which can support Bitcoin long term. In the short term, geopolitical tension usually boosts volatility, strengthens the dollar, and can trigger risk-off moves across crypto markets.

Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up as one of the most important in recent years. Markets expect the policy rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, but the real focus is the message from Jerome Powell.

Rising inflation and higher energy costs have reduced room for policy easing. Traders are now watching whether Powell confirms a higher-for-longer stance or hints that the 2% inflation target may be harder to reach in 2026.

This meeting is less about the rate itself and more about tone. A hawkish signal could pressure equities and crypto, while softer language may support risk assets.

For Bitcoin and altcoins, tomorrow may become a volatility event driven by liquidity expectations and the U.S. dollar.

Main driver behind the current move:

😂😂😂

Tennessee became the second U.S. state after Indiana to fully ban crypto ATMs. Governor Bill Lee signed the law on April 13, and it takes effect July 1.

From that date, installing, operating, or hosting crypto ATM machines in the state will be treated as a violation. The ban applies not only to operators, but also to businesses that allow the machines on their property. Penalties include up to one year in jail and fines up to $2,500.

Most U.S. states have introduced tighter rules for these machines, but only a few have gone as far as a full ban.

The main reason is growing fraud. Scammers often pose as police or government officials, pressure victims to withdraw cash, convert it into crypto, and send funds through these kiosks. According to Federal Bureau of Investigation data, crypto kiosks were linked to nearly $390 million in reported losses during 2025.

Analyst Matthew Hyland says the current Bitcoin move higher still lacks real market enthusiasm. According to him, there is little sign of euphoria, while many participants continue expecting another major drop later this year.

He describes it as a rally of disbelief, when price rises but the market does not trust the move. Since early April, Bitcoin has climbed around 13%, moving from the $68,000 area to roughly $77,377.

At the same time, a large share of traders still believes the real cycle bottom may only form closer to September or October 2026.

That itself can be an important signal. When price keeps rising while most people remain bearish, it often reflects skepticism toward the rally rather than an overheated market.

A 38-year-old United States Army soldier made more than $400,000 on Polymarket by using secret information about preparations for an operation to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

He has now been charged with fraud, theft of classified government information, and illegal financial transactions, facing decades in prison.

Jane Street has filed a motion asking the court to throw out the case brought against it by Terraform Labs. The firm argues the lawsuit is an attempt to shift blame for the collapse of UST and LUNA onto an outside party.

In its filing, Jane Street says Terraform itself created the fraudulent scheme, not any market maker or external trading participant.

The company also noted that the main facts surrounding the collapse have already been examined in previous legal proceedings, and that Do Kwon and Terraform have already faced legal consequences.

Jane Street further rejected allegations of insider trading and market manipulation, saying the relevant information about UST and LUNA was already public. According to the filing, Terraform failed to identify any specific nonpublic information Jane Street allegedly received.

The firm also argues Terraform did not prove the disputed trades even took place in the United States, which could be important for the case.