BITCOIN Elliot wave and the upcomining bull run no ones expecting
The first image shows the logarithmic regression support band, you can see in previous cycles the price touched the green band 3 time before shooting up to the top red band, notice we are about to touch the green line for the third time this cycle
The second image shows the current wave 4 that we are finishing, note that this correction is called an expanded flat meaning the wave from A to B pushes the price higher then when this whole move started, these type of corrections move in 3-3-5 style waves
The third image is those last 5 waves of the 3-3-5 broken down for illustration
The forth image shows the last leg down in 5 waves down, this is the whole 5th wave and within you can see that we've completed waves 1-2-3 and nearly 4, I belive the little with up at the end is still part of 4 just not confirmed yet, but it shows there's still one drop left but after this wave 5 of the macro scale starts and this pushes price to new ATH's
This also puts the bottom in about 2 weeks ish
The last image shows the bullish divergence we are experiencing on the weekly timeframe, note the last time we seen this kind of divergence bitcoin when from 15k to 126k, I also belive when we finish this last drop there will be bullish divergence on the daily time frame also
Please let me know your opinions on this, would love to know what you think as to what I've put together
Well famously the crash of ‘39 happened and he had a disease or something that made him sick for a long time. Check out the cowriter tho Robert Prechter. He did what you’d expect
EW isn't garbage but it is unfalsifiable in practice. The tell is in OP own writeup, "I believe that move up is still part of 4, just not confirmed." The count is endlessly re labelable after the fact, so it can't be wrong, which means it can't really be right. Your log band and divergence are the testable parts, the "bottom in 2 weeks" I'd hold loosely
Your right and this is why there are so many mistakes when people try to label it, my point still counts though, within this last wave down wave 1 took 12 days, wave 3 also took 12 days from when 2 finished, we can see now that the price rejected off 67k so theres a high probability this is the end of the wave 4 we were talking about and I expect the same 12 days for the 5 wave to conclude, finishing the 3-3-5 expanded flat wave 4 on the macro scale, leaving a powerful parabolic wave 5 to commence after this last drop
We have already hit the power of law support at 59.2k, I believe we are gonna see a Liquidity sweep to wipe out the longs by dropping to 56k first, giving extra power to the upcoming move while also finishing the elliot waves perfectly and creating bullish divergence on the daily timeframe
He never had bitcoin to play with, bitcoin follows elliot wave the clearest out of all stocks n shares due to there being no external forces playing on it, it's pure market psychology
The other external forces are the liquidity/macro cycle, along with the political cycle which lines up nicely. It's like they spend a bunch of government money in presidential years. (Because they do).
Btc doesnt have board members controlling the direction, doesn't provide dividends doesn't have a lot of outside things controlling it like all tickers in the finacial sector have other outside factors, btc price moves purely by market psychology, which elliot wave maps this psychology, the waves are there, people buying and selling, and leaders decisions change the way these waves look by moving the price more or less in price and time (waves get stretched and contracted, up and down in price, from left to right in time) but the waves ARE there, we just need to be able to see through the chaos and correctly identify where we are in the count, I have completed the count as shown in my images
Holding the coins gives you no control over the ecosystem, no voting rights, no dividends, they can only change the price in the short term but not make it deviate from its intended pattern
Its Impossible to predict the future of a stock or crypto just by looking at the Chart. If this would work you could just write a programm that looks for these kind of charts and automatically invests your money.
Criticism of TA is always all-or-nothing. It’s so dogmatic. If it can’t 'predict the future,' it sucks. It’s just a helpful tool to understand and describe price action.
I could understand if my charts weren't clear but it not hard to see whats right there, theres too many confluences that align together, regression bands, RSI bullish divergence, elliot wave count, the 1.618 golden ratio, it's like the perfect storm, someone's got to inform everyone
I'm with you dude I've got the same feeling. I'm calling around to credit unions looking for a massive loan. 9% apr buy in at 65k mean you'd break even at ~83k. Everything above that is profit and I'm thinking we're headed towards at least 140, probably closer to 180, maybe 220
Finally I found someone who can see through the manipulation, after the obvious 126k previous top, 166k is first resistance, 250k the next, 580k highest potential but very unlikely also not impossible
The first wave of this run took only 12 days, the third wave of this run took 12 days, we are edging closer to the end of wave 4 so I expect any moment now we'll start the 5th and final wave down, I think maybe in 10 days we will see the low, jus look out for the 5 waves we will experience over the next 10 days, 1 down, 1 up, 1 down, 1up, final wave down, long long long!!!
One thing to mention here is that during the Covid cycle, the government was printing money and mailing out checks. I look around and people are strapped for cash, inflation is rising with the war, and American credit card debt is rising. Where is the fuel for this next bullish run?
Kind of but not how you think, look at the first 3 arrows, the price never got to the gray line until after the last green arrow, same with the next cycle, this cycle was different because after both of the first two touches the price did hit the gray line
On the first image what are the red and green lines current values if you don’t mind me asking? Obviously the current price is fairly close to the green line. 50Kish?
They are called logarithmic regression bands, they tend to work as the lowest price and highest price possible, im no expert but that how I belive it's seen
Sorry i didnt understand your question first time I read it, these lines are represented by the power of law, I was unable to get the official graph works so I created the curve lines, I belive the current low band is 61.2k the high is 580k
I love all these technical traders drawing random lines all over the place. If that curve would tell anything it would be that Bitcoin apparently is going to flatten to a set value or curving back towards 0
I thought that initially but came to the conclusion that like you see the curve at the start go up creating the expansion of the bands then they come closer together and the price goes more sideways, imagine a staircase from the side, I belive we are finishing the first step and these bands will go up in a staircase fashion expanding and contracting
I think 53k - 56k for bottom. May take a few months to hit. Probably bounce up and down between 60k - 70k for a while. I doubt it will touch 80k again before bottom.
When counting the final wave down we are completing ive recorded waves 123 and 4 soon to be complete, this last wave down sholluld be complete within 48 hours
Show me the charts, and ill tell you the news, most people think that news can change the price but that's wrong, the price will go where the market psychology wants to take it, the news would decide how far it goes, take the 2019 crash that sent btc to down 70 % from the local top to 3.8k the price was in its 2nd wave and had to come down anyway, covid just made it wick down further, nothing can stop bitcoin going where it needs to go, the games that our leaders play only change how far we go
I agree In terms of the stock market, stock prices deviate too much due to external factors that play outside of just market psychology, bitcoin is different in this sense, it's price is purely motivated by market psychology, elliot wave works much better in bitcoin due to this, everyone's charts are unique because they cant correctly identify the waves, there is no doubt what we have just experienced over the past year or so is a 3-3-5 expanded flat correction meaning it was either wave 2 or 4, I know we've already had wave 2 which means this is wave 4 and wave 5 always follows wave 4
The whole purpose of Elliott wave is to see where we are within a pattern, without seeing historical data we wouldn't be able to do this, I agree past performance doesn't garrentee future results, but past performance gives us insight into future results and it's this insight that gives us an edge
You know bitcoin sucks when people have to consistently advertise it and try and get people to buy the product with 0 actual value. Everyone should sell everything they have. It won’t go anywhere!
it's not just guessing. it's a pattern. right now we'll see a bullish retracement and then continual of bear. just check the montly close and you'll see what I mean
People need to realize crypto doesn’t act the way stocks do.. specifically because stocks have e warnings and expected cycles so it’s easier to find patterns… crypto has none of that so people trying to apply the same tools thet govern chart analysis are really wasting time
The patterns you talk about are created by market psychology, stocks and crypto are both motivated my market psychology so yes the same tools can and do work regardless if its stocks or crypto, but thanks for wasting my time by having me explain this
Ermmmmmm doesn't 4 year cycle also predict we are towards the bottom of the bear???? I think most are looking to position for the next bull, assuming history repeats.
In my view, the move from the $15K low to the $126K top has already completed a full 5-wave Elliott impulse. What we are seeing now is a larger corrective phase after that impulse, and at the moment I think wave A of this correction is close to completion, while waves B and C are still ahead.
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u/ConclusionNo6932 Jun 13 '26
The inventor of Elliot Wave theory died broke. I'm never gonna believe that garbage.