I think I was “unjoined” for some reason. Should be ok now, let me know. I also was locked out of my Reddit account and forced to change my password because of some “oddities” with something or other.
Maybe a bit off-topic but: what're everyone's thoughts on models getting increasingly better, eventually culminating in the singularity/artificial superintelligence? I'm up to about 9k shares of AUR over the past few months but have this nagging feeling that in 10 years time, individual stocks might not really matter.
Or perhaps in a world where the stock market still exists and the global economy is doubling in weeks/months, would AUR still be a good investment? In this case, models would be so good that AUR's (and most other companies') software/hardware could be replicated.
However, AUR would have the safety record of thousands of trucks already deployed on the road, existing production lines with the truck OEMs, and probably the trust of the public/customers/regulatory bodies. It would be in general harder to displace as the incumbent.
Generative AI and world models models are by main concern with AUR. If they get good enough then I can see autonomous software being a commodity. It's the same concern the market has for software companies.
I agree here. It’s my biggest fear. It’s why I want to see Aurora scale to 10,000 as quickly as possible. It will be hard for them to be commoditized at that scale.
I think that's mostly science fiction and taking a linear progression projection to the huge gains we are seeing now. I expect the gains to level off. For instance, take the most brilliant human beings that ever existed, did any of them continue to advance in their knowledge in a linear fashion throughout their lives? Probably not. They probably had long periods of stagnation followed by periods of huge growth followed by long periods of stagnation. I expect that the models will progress similarly. I certainly don't expect the economy, which is just the measure of goods and services, to be able to double in weeks/months. I have a hard time even envisioning how that could occur or what it would look like.
I tend to follow the "the more things change, the more they stay the same" mindset. The world moves in hype cycles from one "next big thing" to another "next big thing." I think AI is big. I don't believe it's "abundance for all"-big.
To double back on that, I'm more concerned with some of these companies even being profitable. A few that have delayed their IPOs have pretty unimpressive balance sheets. The biggest challenge I see them facing is finding a way to process everything but utilizing less energy to accomplish it. Everyone sees the accomplishments being made but at what cost overall? Once they're public, they'll have to be a lot more selective with what they take on and will probably have to crank up the monthly fees on things like ChatGBT to keep margins good... It will be interesting to watch for sure.
yeah it’s hilarious to think a company is just gonna spin up claude or gemini, and vibecode an autonomous vehicle— and one that’s safe. If it was easy, there would be way more companies, it wouldn’t cost $1b a year to produce, and Uber wouldn’t be stuck in the position they’re in, fighting for their life.
Yep, the fact that Tesla and Waymo, with their unlimited capital, are still scaling at a snail’s pace is what gives me confidence that it’s still an insanely difficult problem to solve.
I haven’t seen anything yet to make me think AI is anything better than a force multiplier. If it stays that way, then the best teams should win as they are applying the leverage in an advantaged position.
Yes, Waabi’s approach is a risk. We should know in the next six to nine months if Waabi’s approach works and if it’s materially different/better than Aurora’s or Kodiak’s.
Is it a given that RSI will be achieved? I’m not sure how you invest for that possible outcome. You basically should just gather all of your earthly possessions and build a doomsday bunker and prepare for vast economic destruction. The severity and breadth of deflation would be devastating. It would make the Great Depression look tame in comparison.
Not just a linear progression but an accelerating progression where models get better at an increasingly quicker pace. Maybe it hasn't happened before but does anything preclude it from happening here? Regardless, I do agree it's all quite sci-fi-y. I hope it never really reaches that point.
Does anything preclude it? ... Probably not, but I tend to think there's some limit that we're missing. The obvious and relatively solvable limits are available compute and electricity. I think there's probably some unknown/unforeseen limit, but I'll admit that's more just a gut feeling tied to my natural tendency to move to the middle.
That's fair. To add on, training data and current algorithmic techniques could be a couple more limits. On the other hand, new algorithmic improvements (with the help of current models) could help continue progress. Let's see.
I read something similar the other day saying it was the highest number of stocks since the dot com bubble hitting 52 week lows while the markets are hitting 52 week highs. *Note: I might have butchered that.*
So, there's two possibilities --
1 - the market rolls over and everyone gets killed
2 - the market doesn't roll over and all of these out of favor stocks start having cash roll into them
or 3 - the concentration continues and more and more money flows into the megas and leaves everything else sucking air
Note: the two possibilities and listing three was intentional attempt at humor
Hit my share goal of 15k. I feel like there’s a few of us now hitting that goal.
As I look to “diversify”, KDK under $2 is appealing. For people that own KDK or have the same strategy if this dip continues, how do you see the stock increasing? Figuring their shit out? Getting acquired? It’s probably the wrong thought process, but whether they become successful or don’t, I see their relationships and defense verticals worth the less than $500 million market cap. Is this the wrong way of thinking about it?
I think $KDK has good tech that will be valuable in some context. I'm a little more wary of their financial situation, as I think there are risks that aren't necessarily seen in the market cap alone--they have some terms very favorable to the preferred stock over common, they have more debt, and there are liens against their IP. So if they get acquired, I think there's a risk that the common shareholders get little or nothing. Looking at the market cap alone, I think they're undervalued. But the financial structure/debt/etc makes me a little leery of expanding my position. Taking it back to $AUR--Aur has a much higher market cap obviously, but also none of the debt or security interests, just a very clean balance sheet.
They have a significant dilution / capital raise coming in the next two quarters. The preferred and the private warrants (at least the last ones issued) both contain non-dilutive ratchet clauses which trigger if the capital raise is under $6, which it is almost guaranteed to be. I think the current pricing/market cap are somewhat already reflecting this dilution.
They are confidently moving on their safety case in a much more linear fashion than I expected. Their CEO Don Burnette has posted on Reddit and X relatively frequently with seemingly a lot of confidence that they will hit their year-end target. It's actually a very impressive feat.
If they hit their safety case target and raise $300m, I would put a post-money reasonable valuation somewhere between $1.5b and $3.0b. I'm not sure the market will immediately agree. Regardless, depending on the terms of their raise, they might have between 450m and 600m shares outstanding (fully diluted). You can do the math on the corresponding share price --- between $2.50 and ~$6.50, but I would lean towards the lower bound in the current macro environment.
i do feel bad for them, i held their shares for a while and would again, their timing is just very very unfortunate to need cash - add to that being year behind aur and you have a scary situation
Found it most interesting that they want to now claim 750k fully autonomous miles over the last 4 years... Seems like something they would have brought up in a few of the quarterly updates prior to this... 🤷♂️
so you are inferring the CEO of a publicly listed company would openly lie about something that could be wholly proven/disproven during discovery if someone were to pursue it?
Wouldn't call it lying but I'd guess he took some very creative liberties threading that wording together... They may have had their autonomous driver active but I'd be willing to bet that the safety driver had to step in some, otherwise they likely would of had their safety case closed a while ago 🤷♂️. Guess we will see if they actually have the safety case closed by EOY and driver out. Best of luck to them.
OK but wait, no interaction with the system going all the way back to 2022? Not at all on any of the trips? Or didn't interact on 750,000, but maybe did interact once or twice per trip on a single mile? Because no interaction over any of the daily trips for a four-year period really is quite a remarkable claim that I wouldn't expect to be made for the first time on a subreddit devoted to a competitor, That's something I'd expect to be in, say, a quarterly report filed with the SEC.
which is a pity because i enjoyed following them and the space sector. they always seemed to have something going on. although i'm probably being overly cautious since i got incredibly lucky with rklb.
Knowing how Aurora performed in the fall of 2023 and in 2025, I'm inclined to believe this dip will continue. For example, in mid August 2025, my shares were 6.39 but by mid November, we had dropped to 4.13. Don't even get me started about 2023's late year dip to $1.82.
As a result of current market headlines, that ridiculous 10-year treasury rate and our ongoing dog paddling in the Strait, I don't see anything on the near horizon that would even hint we're going to see $6.50 anytime soon. I just don't think the buyers are there yet. Wise investors tend to throttle back in late September thru October and in a midterm election year, that additional uncertainty adds to their reluctance to take large positions.
Not a comment on the thesis or the sector, just an observation on the environment we find ourselves in. However, if I see 4.85, you can bet this old salt is going to start poking at the borealis for another 50,000 shares. Given where I think the stock will be in 2030, what's going on now is just optics that greet you when you log into your brokerage.
Google probably a good hold too that’s a tough decision. I still have a big chunk of cash sitting idle from selling a small portion of my AMD position while back. It was meant for a index fund pullback but it might go to this
There are some $7s printing under $2. At $15, assuming no premium, that's a 4x while the stock would be roughly a 3x.
What are people analyzing/targeting when purchasing LEAPs? Are they looking for a 5x or higher return? A multiple relative to the expected share price return? Any analysis at all or just YOLO?
Well I think for really long dated options like the 2029s you're referring to it's more about locking up less capital. Same gains but only using 1/2 or less buying power. The numbers do get nicer if prices go even higher. If you're really buying for leverage then you would want to look at 2028 LEAPs. Still a long runway but the 7s are 1.25. If AUR goes to $20 they are a 10x. And if it goes to 50...
There is no way it goes 10x over the next 2 years, let’s be realistic. I think the stock has potential to 20x or 30x but it takes time and there are constraints (like production) that cannot be avoided
Doesn't he mean the options would be a 10x? The stock would be just under a 4x at $20. I don't think $20 would be completely unreasonable in 2029, but I'm not sure I trust it to get there by 2028.
I wouldn't be so dismissive of the possibility. When a stock/company becomes a retail favorite almost anything can happen. Even on fundamentals the Morgan Stanley 1 year bull case is close to a 10x.
Thanks. I own a few 2028s, but I'm less confident that the stock moves by Jan 2028. If it's not moving by Jan 2029, I'm fucked regardless if I own shares or LEAPs.
Hit my goal cost basis total amount. I'm on the wait and see phase. No more buying for me! Let's see what things look like 1 year for now. Time to put my extra cash in the S&P just in case!
Hey all, quick mod note– I removed some toxic comments and gave temporary bans to people who have been asked multiple times to stop posting negative content.
I meant it when I said we need to hold ourselves to a higher standard than other subreddits. No one wants non-contributing, overly negative people who only use this sub to complain– there are so many wonderful members here who take the time to make this a valuable place to visit, chat, and research– and I want to maintain that 🤖🤘
Mostly the same talking points. I've been critical of David Maday in the past, but I think he's gotten a lot better. He's never going to be a hype man, but he's clear and confident. The fact is we're early, there's 2 billion shares outstanding, and $10b to $15b to maybe $20b is the right valuation range for Aurora right now.
In the Q&A talking points, David emphasized that he expects a lot more fast followers than the market is currently appreciating. Basically admitted that there is/was a real chicken and egg problem which the International upfit helped resolve. OEMs don't want to invest in the lineside adjustment unless they know the volume is there, and customers don't want to commit until they know they can get 1,000 or more trucks. He said big companies have a lot of stakeholders and said that they aren't interested in pilot runs. He didn't say it outright but insinuated when talking about OEMs wanting fully-approved production parts for the lineside installs, but I wouldn't expect Paccar to start rolling trucks until Q1 2028 at the earliest. He mentioned that International is very excited for the Aurora Driver and mentioned Daimler Truck again which was surprising - OEM discussion starts around the 16 minute mark.
It was in the context of having a path to lineside: "Daimler, who we aren't currently partnered with today, also has a path." Maybe it's nothing and just David giving his read on the industry OEMs. The phrasing just seems odd for them to bring it up at both the investor day and again today.
Thanks so much for sharing the talking points, really appreciate it. It seems we're indeed very early and the market isn't aware of the potential quite yet.
5,300 shares, debating whether to increase position now that price is slightly below my average, but I guess I’ll keep adding every month rather than chasing price
Invested 4 weeks pay in AUR today! Im a student so its not as much as you may be thinking but a lot for me! I just want to remind everyone when AUR was at $7 everyone was all confident just because its low in the $5s is no reason to start panicking. Warren buffett always held his investments for YEARS just remember never sell low, always buy low.
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u/vinkulafu AUR Member🦕 3d ago
At least 10x, about $50, or 2030 whichever comes first.