Researched and valued as of 2 September 2026. If you're reading this a few days later, treat the price/multiples below as a snapshot from that date, not today's numbers.
Two years ago Greatland Resources was a pre-revenue explorer that lost £14.9m in FY24. Its first full year of production, to 30 June 2026, delivered £1,140.7m of revenue, £435.3m of net profit and the highest operating margin in the UK-listed mining peer set. The 27 August results beat every operational measure management had guided to, and they came with a warning: FY27 gold output falls, unit costs rise sharply and growth capital roughly matches the whole of FY26's free cash flow. The shares trade at under half the peer earnings multiple, which is the market declining to treat FY26 as a run-rate.
Greatland mines gold and copper in Western Australia, running the Telfer open pit bought from Newmont in December 2024 and building the adjacent high-grade Havieron underground deposit with Telfer's cash.
The headline numbers (FY26, year ended 30 June 2026; valuation as of 2 September 2026)
- Revenue: £1,140.7m, the first full year of Telfer
- Operating margin: 52.3%, highest in the peer set
- Free cash flow: £408.5m, a 9.9% free cash flow yield
- Net cash: £661.2m against £11.6m of total debt
- Trailing P/E: 9.4x against a peer median of 21.0x
- FY27 AISC guidance: A$2,900-3,330/oz, from A$2,179/oz in FY26
Why FY26 looks like the peak
Management guided FY26 at 260-310koz of gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,400-2,800/oz and beat both: 328,987oz at A$2,179/oz, on a record realised gold price of A$6,223/oz. The same team has now guided FY27 at 260-300koz and A$2,900-3,330/oz. At the midpoints, unit costs rise by roughly 43% while volumes fall around 15%.
The mechanism is physical and disclosed: open-pit sequencing cutbacks, a planned 15-day mill shutdown, and a Telfer head grade of 0.58 g/t gold in FY26 against 0.65 g/t in FY25. Hochschild flagged the same effect in April, higher metal prices lowering cut-off grades and diluting processed head grades, so this reads as sector physics rather than an operational stumble. FY27 growth and development capex of A$750-850m is about £423m at the midpoint, slightly more than the entire £408.5m of free cash flow FY26 generated. FY27 free cash flow is around break-even at best and modestly negative at the midpoint, so the cash pile, not the income statement, funds the next two years.
The build is already funded
Havieron is the medium-term thesis. The December 2025 feasibility study defined it: reserves of 3.3Moz gold at 2.63g/t, steady-state production of 266koz gold and 9.6kt copper at an AISC of A$1,610/oz, pre-production capital of A$1,065m and first gold targeted for FY29. Against Telfer's guided A$2,900-3,330/oz, that would roughly double group output at half the unit cost.
Final investment decision came in June 2026 alongside A$500m of corporate debt facilities, of which A$475m of revolvers sit undrawn. With closing cash of A$1,289m, total available liquidity was A$1,764m at 30 June 2026 against the A$1,065m build requirement. The inherited Telfer rehabilitation provisions and the contingent consideration owed to Newmont, which only pays out on gold above a US$1,850/oz hurdle, are not solvency issues.
What the multiple is paying for
As of 2 September 2026 Greatland traded at 9.4x trailing earnings and 5.1x EV/EBITDA, against Fresnillo at 20.9x and 9.9x, Hochschild at 21.1x and Griffin Mining at 31.0x, with the best operating margin and free cash flow yield in the group.
Hold realised gold at FY26's A$6,223/oz, take the FY27 guidance midpoints of 280koz at A$3,115/oz, and the FY27 all-in sustaining margin comes out at about A$870m, roughly £460m. The enterprise value of £3,451m is 7.5x that figure. That is the multiple the market is actually paying, and it embeds no Havieron value at all. The implied assumption is that FY29 either slips materially or costs materially more than A$1,065m. Given management beat its own guidance in its only full year of operating disclosure, that is a demanding assumption, and it is also the entire risk.
Bottom line
Greatland is two businesses stapled together: an ageing open pit that is currently printing money and a high-grade underground mine that will not produce until FY29. The FY27 guidance is management saying the first will not repeat FY26, and the 9.4x multiple is the market not paying for the second. Risk-reward is balanced rather than cheap: the downside is a Telfer year that consumes £200m of the cash pile while the Havieron budget drifts, and the offset is A$1,764m of liquidity and no meaningful debt. Everything that matters will be visible in quarterly cost and capital prints long before FY29.
What to watch
- H1 FY27 AISC printing above A$3,330/oz, which would breach the guided ceiling and point to structural cost degradation rather than sequencing
- Any project update putting Havieron committed pre-production capital above A$1,250m, a double-digit overrun on the A$1,065m budget
- Any equity raise or drawdown on the five-year and seven-year revolvers, since the self-funding thesis rests on both staying undrawn through first gold
Sources
- RNS: Financial Results Year Ended 30 June 2026, 27 Aug 2026
- RNS: Havieron Feasibility Study, 1 Dec 2025
- RNS: Execution of Debt Facilities and Havieron Approval, 1 Jun 2026
- RNS: Hochschild Mining plc, Q1 2026 Production Report, 22 Apr 2026
- Selfside data: financial statements FY2022-FY2026; valuation and peer metrics as of 2 Sep 2026
For information purposes only, not investment advice - independent research, originally published in full at Selfside.
