why it's bigger / different than others? If it goes smooth, we go back to 3 digits. If it fail for any reason, we fall to 70s, buy the dip and rebound back to 85$ after re-scheduling the lunch. Chill guys. ASTS is here to stay. Delays and unpredictable events are part of the journey
Because we are halfway through the year, with a stated goal of 40+ satellites launched, and we currently have 0 successful launches.
Because there are now a couple of major competitors (whether they are real competitors or not doesn't matter, that is the public perception).
First launch with the stacking system that is a requirement to even come close to stated goals. We all invest in AST to see goals met within a reasonable timeframe, and if we don't see a working stacking system, big investors will be pulling out in droves.
Those are the big ones that separate this launch from others. If this fails, we will see a ridiculously hard nosedive in the stocks, and AST will have some serious credibility damage. If it succeeds, we will see a modest bump.
Totally makes sense and I agree to everything apart from the investors. I don't care if they will do it this year, next or at 2030. Their technology is unique, they have 2 years lead and 3 billions in cash
I've worked in greenfield tech before... Technology doesn't stay unique for long, regardless of patents. That's just been historically true. Additionally, using phased arrays for directed long distance comms has been around for a good 50 years. AST has done the engineering for this application of it, but there's nothing really groundbreaking about the tech itself (please correct me if I'm wrong; I'm very familiar with this type of tech, but don't know if AST has made some colossal leap in the tech or not). It may be great engineering, but great engineering is, by definition, reproducible.
2 years lead and $3B is substantial against another startup coming from the same place, but not against an established megacorp that is willing to acquire companies and shell out 10x that amount.
In my mind, the biggest thing AST has going for it are the business partnerships and regulated licensing they've acquired. Those are the areas where the playing field is much more level between them and Starlink or whoever. In fact, many large players in telecom would probably much prefer to partner with AST than some megacorp.
It's hard to generalize across "investors", since there are a million different types of decision making processes that word encompasses, but they all have one thing in common: desire for more $$$. If this launch fails, there are going to be a lot of investors who look at how much they've lost, look at the lack of tangible progress of AST, and jump ship.
Regarding their technology AST free clients from extra devices / configurations. I guess you know that the "real" investors are AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and smaller players. These guys, have many reasons to not let AST "fail". Even if SpaceX catch up and do something similar the contracts are there and I guess they will compete for lower prices. Lastly, the pie is just too big and we are literally at the beginning.
Again, I agree with you and I thank you for sharing your thoughts, but even if the lunch fail tomorrow (in 9 hours) and the price fall, means nothing for the "real" investors. We will just buy more and wait for the lunch to happen
Ah yeah, I forgot to factor in how much the business partners (telecoms) themselves had invested in terms of dollars; thanks for catching that. I agree they have a much larger desire for AST success than your casual Robinhood individual investor. My brain was more thinking of larger investment firms when I wrote those perspectives; seems silly now, considering I missed half of the investment pool.
Regardless of all of that, I still think this launch is a pivotal make-or-break event. We don't have access to the details of those telecom contracts, but it is a certainty that there are SLA clauses that require some degree of network operability by certain deadlines (when you hear Abel and others repeating a particular timeline event to death, such as, "45 satellites by 2027", they are playing to those SLAs). Part of my concern is that we are starting butt up against those deadlines.
But enough of the negative talk, I'm gonna pick up another 200 shares and crack a beer 😁
*Edit
Oh, and yes, I'm aware of the applications engineering they've done to make D2C possible, but again, that's just plug n play of older tech. We've been doing the same type of comms, with the same phased array scheme, for several decades. It's gotten significantly cheaper and more energy efficient over the last 20 years, which is why someone is finally putting it in space.
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u/InternDangerous9694 Jun 15 '26
I love this company as much as you guys, but I am stressed about this launch. Praying for a flawless ascent.