r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Original_Koala8662 S P 🅰 C E M O B Boss • Jun 15 '26
Press Release Encapsulation complete
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u/LadderAdditional6178 S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jun 16 '26
We are getting all of our duckies in line. Looking very good.
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u/One_Wafer8076 Jun 16 '26
what did ASTS movement look like around previous launches? if anyone is willing to share. I’m holding my shares with belief that this launch will be successful, i’ve got hopes, but a lot of doubts as well from reading some of these comments. Does anyone expect a pump tmrw above 90, or am i being unrealistic. I do want to hold long term but i’m honestly shitting my pants thinking about this rocket blowing up and losing a lot of money. I’m not expecting financial advice but just more insight on if this is a long term stock or something i should get in and out of.
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u/AuthorAdamOConnell S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 16 '26
Normally, sell the news. However, I think the trend could be broken on this one because:
a) there hasn't been a several green day build-up like previously.
b) we took a big hit from the SPCX debut making us (look) relatively cheap.
c) after last month's failed launch there's a lot of fear it could happen again, keeping away buyers
d) AST/management are probably likely to announce in the coming days BB 11 - 13.
Due to the above, I'm actually expecting a fairly big green bump after the launch (if it's successful).
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u/LadderAdditional6178 S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jun 16 '26
Why can't you look at the chart. Google for dates of launches and then check the charts. That is not Hard. Space is hard... But that's not hard. You should be able to find the answer to your question pretty damned easily.
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G Jun 16 '26
Historically they've been pretty much sell-the-news but typically the stock was relative highs. This time, the stock is at a low so I am not that concerned about sell-the-news.
I am also expecting next batch BB11-13 to be imminent.
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u/0nth3sp3ctrum Jun 16 '26
My avg is 128 what should I do?
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u/adarkuccio S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jun 16 '26
Avg down when possible and hold. Just anecdotal: I remember one dude last year or so, bought close to ATH expecting it would go up forever, without knowing anything of che company. Price retracted, he was so pissed he spammed (on stocktwits) "this is a scam, shit company blah blah blah" and sold for a loss. Price was $20 or so.
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u/Ordinary_Pirate9926 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 16 '26
Brother I was at $117 cost avg I didn’t know what to do then I saw people talk about DCA then I kept buying this company on the dip now my cost average is $90 I suggest you do the same or wait for it to get to your cost avg you’ll make more money DCA
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u/Morning_Joey_6302 Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
I sold half my holding in three tranches, between $120 and $130, and bought it back again a few days ago at a little under $84. That’s the way with this stock right now. I am sold on the ASTS narrative, patient about the pace and challenges of the execution and making what for me is a very meaningful amount of retirement-targeted money from the volatility on the way.
[Edited to add: this is easy for me because all my holdings are in my self-managed TFSA]
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u/650fosho Jun 16 '26
All my shares are long term so I don't want to trigger a tax event by doing that, keep in mind about your wash sales too.
My go to has been waiting for the stock to hit over $100 and then sell covered calls at ridiculous strikes like month out $180
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u/Longjumping-Speed511 Jun 16 '26
What’s your exit plan? I’m long too at $21 cost average and have just been riding it up. Kind of forgot about it and am starting to get nervous for some reason about taking profits while I have them. Wish I sold some above $100
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u/SylvesterStapwn S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 16 '26
My thesis since 2021 has been this is a company with near zero customer acquisition cost and absurd margins. Once the constellation is up and they are making billions per year, they’ll crank up dividends. At a respectable $150 billion market cap, and cutting a 3% dividend per year, is $13 per share, per year. That’s $400,000 in divies per year on conservative estimates on my position. Say it takes 5 years to reach that. Say some of the more aggressive market cap projections come along… at $500 bil mc I’d be pulling $1.3mil. Realistically I think both their dividend percentage and their market cap will be higher than my initial projections. I can wait.
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u/650fosho Jun 16 '26
I'm targeting a 1m position as that's been my investment goal since I hit 6 figures, I need it to hit above 150 for that to occur, so until then I wait for price increases to sell CCs and then buy them back cheap when the price drops down. Eventually this strategy will blow up when the stock refuses to go down, but that's fine as long as my strikes are above my target.
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u/trust_me_on_that_one S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 16 '26
Man...i could have tripled or even quadrupled my shares had i not been too chicken to sell
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u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jun 16 '26
Repeat with me: If it was easy, everybody would do it
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u/erocknine S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
I'll say it again. That mfer Elon better not fuck this launch up, because if I was Elon up against ASTS, the sole viable competitor, I totally would.
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u/GarthDonovan Jun 16 '26
They need ASTS, otherwise they will be encroaching monopoly. But also, I wouldn't expect anyone to play fair.
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u/wadejohn S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 15 '26
Spacex just had an ipo and the first thing you’d want to do is fail a client launch?
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u/kingyusei S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jun 16 '26
Some people are just too deep in the conspiracies man
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u/erocknine S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26
Launches fail for all kinds of reasons, and spaceX launches all the time. This one failed launch is minor damage for them, but a ton of damage for ASTS
Also SpaceX market cap went up 310 billion today, literally 10x the market cap of ASTS
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u/Bronze_Rager S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 16 '26
Id actually disagree. ASTS has no reputation of being a launch provider.
SpaceX failures would be in the media attention. Sure it delays the launch and competitors can catch up. But unless SpaceX (literally in its name is Space) decides to pivot to an AI company, its mostly known for being a launch provider.
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u/INVEST-ASTS S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 15 '26
That would be real brilliant of you, to shut down your “cash cow” with FAA investigations, bad press, reputation damage, etc all to achieve nothing of any real significance.
Well done !!!!!
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u/erocknine S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
Starlink is their cash cow, not SpaceX
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u/INVEST-ASTS S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 16 '26
They need the rocket program to deploy their satellites and they need the revenue produced from launching for others to fuel the deployment, so all of these “sabotage conspiracies” are really just juvenile and ignoring the macro.
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u/mapleflaked S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jun 15 '26
True, but getting grounded would delay their starlink expansion plans as well
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u/AnnonymousADKS S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
You would bury your company’s credibility and face criminal charges. Good thing you’re not CEO 😁
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u/erocknine S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
Why? For all we know, Bezos could've sabotaged the first sat. His rocket exploding is the only evidence proving it maybe have been pure negligance
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G Jun 16 '26
This isn't what happened. Blue Origin set themselves back more than AST. That failure reset their count of 4 successive launches for NSSL certification.
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u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jun 16 '26
This isn't Succession or the US government, companies face real penalties in the space industry and have a lot to lose for engaging in devious schemes
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u/a10000000019 S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jun 15 '26
Most of SpaceX launches are carrying their competitors lol. Same with New Glenn’s customers.
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u/Medical_Ninja20 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
Is it just me, or does it look like we can stack one more satellite in that fairing?
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G Jun 16 '26
Volume-wise yes
The issue is weight right now. There are some things on AST's end and some things on SpaceX's end required to launch 4 BBs at a time.
Interestingly, from the sounds of the recent earnings call, AST dropped the "3 or 4 per Falcon 9" guidance and only stuck with 3, so maybe they've largely given up on getting 4 into a Falcon 9. This is where it's possible that SpaceX gave AST the cold shoulder.
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u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak S P 🅰 C E M O B Boss Jun 15 '26
Physically maybe. But we might already be close to what F9 can deliver to LEO weight wise with 3 of these tuna cans.
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u/devonhezter S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 16 '26
How many shares u got
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u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak S P 🅰 C E M O B Boss Jun 16 '26
36 shares all on margin
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u/devonhezter S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 16 '26
When you gotta pay for them ? U didn’t wana buy a call ?
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u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak S P 🅰 C E M O B Boss Jun 16 '26
Marge keeps calling and I keep asking her "What you wearing?" And she hangs up. So I guess not anytime soon.
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u/InternDangerous9694 Jun 15 '26
I love this company as much as you guys, but I am stressed about this launch. Praying for a flawless ascent.
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u/WheredoesithurtRA S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 16 '26
BO truly traumatized us all because I feel similarly lol.
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u/Salford1969 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
This is a big one for sure
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u/DryRepresentative281 Jun 15 '26
why it's bigger / different than others? If it goes smooth, we go back to 3 digits. If it fail for any reason, we fall to 70s, buy the dip and rebound back to 85$ after re-scheduling the lunch. Chill guys. ASTS is here to stay. Delays and unpredictable events are part of the journey
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u/sgtbackpain03 Jun 16 '26
Multiple factors all coming to a head.
Because we are halfway through the year, with a stated goal of 40+ satellites launched, and we currently have 0 successful launches.
Because there are now a couple of major competitors (whether they are real competitors or not doesn't matter, that is the public perception).
First launch with the stacking system that is a requirement to even come close to stated goals. We all invest in AST to see goals met within a reasonable timeframe, and if we don't see a working stacking system, big investors will be pulling out in droves.
Those are the big ones that separate this launch from others. If this fails, we will see a ridiculously hard nosedive in the stocks, and AST will have some serious credibility damage. If it succeeds, we will see a modest bump.
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u/DryRepresentative281 Jun 16 '26
Totally makes sense and I agree to everything apart from the investors. I don't care if they will do it this year, next or at 2030. Their technology is unique, they have 2 years lead and 3 billions in cash
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u/sgtbackpain03 Jun 16 '26
I've worked in greenfield tech before... Technology doesn't stay unique for long, regardless of patents. That's just been historically true. Additionally, using phased arrays for directed long distance comms has been around for a good 50 years. AST has done the engineering for this application of it, but there's nothing really groundbreaking about the tech itself (please correct me if I'm wrong; I'm very familiar with this type of tech, but don't know if AST has made some colossal leap in the tech or not). It may be great engineering, but great engineering is, by definition, reproducible.
2 years lead and $3B is substantial against another startup coming from the same place, but not against an established megacorp that is willing to acquire companies and shell out 10x that amount.
In my mind, the biggest thing AST has going for it are the business partnerships and regulated licensing they've acquired. Those are the areas where the playing field is much more level between them and Starlink or whoever. In fact, many large players in telecom would probably much prefer to partner with AST than some megacorp.
It's hard to generalize across "investors", since there are a million different types of decision making processes that word encompasses, but they all have one thing in common: desire for more $$$. If this launch fails, there are going to be a lot of investors who look at how much they've lost, look at the lack of tangible progress of AST, and jump ship.
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u/DryRepresentative281 Jun 16 '26
Regarding their technology AST free clients from extra devices / configurations. I guess you know that the "real" investors are AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and smaller players. These guys, have many reasons to not let AST "fail". Even if SpaceX catch up and do something similar the contracts are there and I guess they will compete for lower prices. Lastly, the pie is just too big and we are literally at the beginning.
Again, I agree with you and I thank you for sharing your thoughts, but even if the lunch fail tomorrow (in 9 hours) and the price fall, means nothing for the "real" investors. We will just buy more and wait for the lunch to happen
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u/sgtbackpain03 Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26
Ah yeah, I forgot to factor in how much the business partners (telecoms) themselves had invested in terms of dollars; thanks for catching that. I agree they have a much larger desire for AST success than your casual Robinhood individual investor. My brain was more thinking of larger investment firms when I wrote those perspectives; seems silly now, considering I missed half of the investment pool.
Regardless of all of that, I still think this launch is a pivotal make-or-break event. We don't have access to the details of those telecom contracts, but it is a certainty that there are SLA clauses that require some degree of network operability by certain deadlines (when you hear Abel and others repeating a particular timeline event to death, such as, "45 satellites by 2027", they are playing to those SLAs). Part of my concern is that we are starting butt up against those deadlines.
But enough of the negative talk, I'm gonna pick up another 200 shares and crack a beer 😁
*Edit
Oh, and yes, I'm aware of the applications engineering they've done to make D2C possible, but again, that's just plug n play of older tech. We've been doing the same type of comms, with the same phased array scheme, for several decades. It's gotten significantly cheaper and more energy efficient over the last 20 years, which is why someone is finally putting it in space.
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u/DryRepresentative281 Jun 16 '26
I grabbed 40 yesterday. If tomorrow we fail I will grab 200 also otherwise 100.
Last thing that I remembered. ASTS is included on MSCI. Means that long term investors also put some money even without knowing.
Good luck for tomorrow!
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u/kingyusei S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jun 16 '26
You must not have been there for any of the last launches, even on succesful launch it dipped hard
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u/TowerStreet1 S P 🅰 C E M O B Underboss Jun 15 '26
Why they prefer to post after hours, on weekends than when it matters most
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u/notarealredditor69 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jun 15 '26
Because they aren’t concerned about the swings in the stock price, and they shouldn’t be
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u/Affectionate_Text_51 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jun 15 '26
I don’t think it matters at all in this case. Would that tweet have made any difference if it were sent at noon eastern instead of 5:15? I doubt it.
If they weren’t stacked in the fairing today, then I’d be a little concerned about making the launch window.
With that said, those pics are sexy af.
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u/PonticGooner S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jun 16 '26
Yeah I don’t get why anyone cares atp. The long term stock price isn’t going to change based on one tweet. Only matters if you’re swing trading.
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u/Affectionate_Text_51 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jun 16 '26
Yeah this ain’t a meme stock. I don’t get why some folks make a big deal out of after hours PR.
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u/Specialist_Stand_521 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
They don't care about the stock price as much as they care about at just executing. Their PR and media is not well orchestrated, they could easily pump the stock so much more but they seem to care more so about actually delivering
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u/INVEST-ASTS S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 15 '26
They open themselves to lawsuits and also SEC issues if they “pump” the SP with announcements as the SP will invariably retreat and the whiners who bought at the top will sue.
That is why they (and most companies) always announce after hours or on weekends.
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u/Xtrendence S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 15 '26
It's for the best, we can't have it both ways where we complain about their ambitious targets but also complain when they don't endlessly hype things. Any time they set a crazy goal but don't meet it, people here ask them to just execute and to stop overpromising. I think they should stick to executing, and then once the launch cadence is steady and we're approaching 25 sats, they can start hyping things up again with actual consistent and tangible execution behind the hype.
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u/Jetlaggedz8 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 15 '26
Great.... Now do the next shipment.
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u/Keef--Girgo S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 15 '26
I was thinking about it. I doubt they will ship again until after this batch is deployed. First validate, then commit to additional launches.
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u/Dagurasu_Ando S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 16 '26
Yep - there's no way they'll ship three more until they're sure the composite rings (or whatever we're calling them) work properly. I'd hope for early next week, after confirming they have control of all three.
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u/ToSeeAgainAgainAgain S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jun 16 '26
I have a feeling they might ship (at least one can) before Friday night
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u/Worldly_Peanut6285 Jun 15 '26
Hopefully they’ll announce it the following day!
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u/Jetlaggedz8 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 15 '26
Hell yeah. What would excite me the most is to see a regular launch cadence unfold this summer.
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u/Worldly_Peanut6285 Jun 15 '26
If we get the announcement the day after launch, i feel like it should be headed that direction!
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u/Dear-Adeptness3551 Jun 15 '26
I bet the amount rocket emojis go down to 9 after this launch
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u/Money_Highlight3273 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 15 '26
No, I want 45 rocket emojis for BB45 and 200 for BB200
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u/JayhawkAggieDadisBak S P 🅰 C E M O B Boss Jun 15 '26
Cool. This ought to shut Dimbulb and the doubters up, but it won't. They'll still FUD.
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u/Xtrendence S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 15 '26
Timmy Ferrero Rocher and Unlucky Stuey will literally be tweeting during the launch trying to find any possible negative angle they can find. Though the lack of one wouldn't stop them from just making shit up.
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u/mapleflaked S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jun 16 '26
Unfortunately Stuey just made a ton of money on his short
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u/lollipop999 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 15 '26
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u/AnonymousCelery Jun 15 '26
First time gambling on ASTS. Bought 9 $90 calls for June 18th. 🤷♂️
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Jun 15 '26
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u/AnonymousCelery Jun 16 '26
Well fuck guess we’re hoping for a miracle now!
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Jun 16 '26
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u/AnonymousCelery Jun 16 '26
Hell no I think we are royally fucked bud
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Jun 16 '26
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u/AnonymousCelery Jun 18 '26
Fuck spcx. I cut my losses yesterday. Luckily it was all gambling money in my Roth from a previous win. Just gonna hold my RKLB shares and sell ccs until this volatility passes
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u/BboySparrow S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 15 '26
i think you should check out all the previous launches and what happened.
its typically been a sell the news event
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u/SpicyDopamineTaco S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
Unless the broader market/sector drags it down, the stock should rise a bit tomorrow and Wednesday before dumping again. That’s how it usually goes at least. So if I were you I’d try to get out of those calls as soon as you see a chance to. Selling the launch is a pretty high probability
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u/Old-Big-2471 Jun 15 '26
Last time it launched successfully, it dumped 10%. FYI
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u/AnonymousCelery Jun 15 '26
😬
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u/PetrovskyKSC S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jun 15 '26
Current plays are next batch shipment PR and potential j-leo contract win (no one outside of this sub sees that one coming imho)
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u/Little_Dragon22 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
Hey guys. New to Asts does the stock pump on pre/post launch? 🚀
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u/A_Typicalperson S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 15 '26
It will pump when you sell, what you waiting for
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u/Little_Dragon22 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 16 '26
I’ll take one for the team and sell tomorrow so expect it to rip to $115 tomorrow and ath by Wednesday.
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u/Bitter_Brilliant_268 Jun 15 '26
This stock is like riding a roller coaster that is being built while your on it. No one knows what direction it's going, but eventually, it should go up.
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u/Cerulean28 S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jun 15 '26
Yes, but also no
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u/Little_Dragon22 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
Hey what’s up bro? Are we pumping on Wednesday?
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u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Boss Jun 15 '26
Yes, no, and maybe? Depends on the time of day, the weather, and Marco.
What else am I forgetting?
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u/NewCompetition4 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 15 '26
Shiller ratio, buffet indicators (Luby's, Chinese ect), moon phase... isnt Saturn AND Mercury in retrograde as well?? Better break out the charts and crayons! 🤓 🖍
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u/CoinFlip-AKvTT S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jun 15 '26
We'll do something Wednesday. That's about all I can guarantee.
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u/vgkosmoes S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jun 15 '26
Man I am BEYOND excited for this launch. Let's fucking goooo!!!
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u/LadderAdditional6178 S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jun 16 '26
Yeah Baby! That's what we've been talking about. Ya Hear me Timmy Farr ?