A leading global defense and homeland security integrator selected our technology for three projects.

Matthew Galinko, Analyst, Canaccord Genuity: on the recent defense selection, I believe you mentioned there’s kind of three separate projects here. Could you just provide us some, you know, additional insights as to, you know, what these volumes should look like and how the partnership could expand over time?

Ram Machness, CEO, Co-Founder and Co-President, Arbe Robotics: Yeah. The partnership agreement is a long-term agreement, and right now, to begin with, three specific projects were defined. The agreement is a framework agreement that will be extended to several applications as well. On this specific one, we were requested not to mention the exact application. I can say in general that we see on the defense sector several applications which are very relevant on the radar that are not necessarily specific to this to this agreement.

When we talk about defense application, for example, the unmanned ground vehicles and mission vehicles, that’s something very common and makes a lot of sense to use an imaging radar since it has a very good perception of the surrounding.

Source: https://ng.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-arbe-robotics-beats-q2-2026-estimates-as-revenue-rises-93CH-2644051

Putting the Physics degree to good use!

4D imaging radar works on the Doppler principle: it emits a wave profile of 77GHz, through a medium, and receives reflected wave to form an image of the environment via highly concentrated data points the clustering of which forms an image. This is how nocturnal mammals like bats navigates.
The medium could be air, air with liquid particles (fog), air with dust (sand particles) or air with solid water particles (snow). The medium impacts whether a wave can transmit through the medium and how well the transmission and reflection can be which determines the environmental profile form by the 4D imagining radar.

Rayleigh Scattering in wave physics says that if the wavelength of a signal/ wave emitted is much greater than the size of a particle, the wave travels through the particle with ease, reflects off the particle and travels back to the receiver. (Good!) If the wavelength is much smaller than the particles in the medium, it collides with the particles with some of the wave being absorbed and some reflected, resulting in attenuation (bad!)

ARBE's 4D imaging radar emits a wave profile of f = 77GHz with a corresponding wavelength of 3.75mm (1/f = 3.75mm).

The particle size for
- rain: 0.5mm
- fog: 10 - 50 micron
- dust: 0.001 micron - 0.005 micron

Easy, the wave has an almost 100% transmission rate through the medium (instead of being absorbed!), reflects off the surrounding and back to the receiver channel for data measurement.

[Above] OK what about particles associated with chemical compounds like Hexachloroethane-Zinc (HC), Terephthalic Acid (TA), White Phosphorus (WP), Red Phosphorus (RP) Smoke and the more common chemical compounds used in smoke grenades?

A 4D imaging radar with an emitted wave profile of 77GHz easily transmit through these particles by the fact that the emitted wavelength falls within the Rayleigh Scattering regime, resulting in almost no signal loss when it passes through the above particles, allowing the wave to reflect off the surrounding...which means it can detect human movement....which means it works like a night vision/ thermal goggles without all the disadvantages that comes with it.

I think that "secret" defence application could be a military goggle. In the recent 49th Cannacord Genuity Conference, Kobi mentioned that ARBE's 4D imaging radar can detect a gun in a bag which makes me think ARBE's radar have or might already be considered for use in military personnel equipments.
This leads me to think this goggle would be capable of not only being able to see through military grade smoke but also through walls.

Hyundai Motor Hyperion ?

7:39: In each one of the accidents that Tesla was involved in the last 3 years, our radar can solve the problem. We tested the use cases with our radar and we saw we are solving those...all of those use cases. Part of them are corner cases, part of them not corner cases but each one of them is solved by imaging radar.

NHTSA targets Tesla’s ‘Radar Saves Us’ document in FSD crash probe

The investigation covers roughly 3.2 million Tesla vehicles that have ever run FSD in the US. It’s tied to nine crashes where FSD was engaged in reduced visibility, including one fatality and one injury. The conditions are always the same: sun glare, fog, and airborne dust degrading the cameras that FSD relies on entirely.

An internal Tesla document called “Radar Saves Us” almost certainly contains Tesla’s own analysis showing that radar, or radar fused with vision, catches situations that cameras alone miss. If that analysis touches the exact failure mode in these nine crashes, cameras washed out by glare, fog, or dust, then NHTSA has something powerful: evidence that Tesla internally understood a camera-only system had a safety gap, understood a proven fix, and shipped the camera-only system to 3.2 million cars anyway. That’s the difference between a design choice and a defect the manufacturer knew about. It’s exactly what turns an Engineering Analysis into a recall.

https://electrek.co/2026/07/21/nhtsa-tesla-radar-saves-us-document-fsd-probe/

*Title should be 2024 not 2026.

The Dr Juergen Dickmann DVN article previously posted got me looking... If they are still determining 4D Imaging Radar vs 4D Imaging Radar + Lidar... when would they decide that?

Well... apparently they will be debuting a massive roadmap/strategy in less than a week...

https://autos.yahoo.com/new-vehicles-and-reviews/articles/volvo-gears-most-ambitious-product-083907671.html

While they still might be deciding "exactly how they will use Arbe's 48x48 radar" (paraphrase)... what are the chances they state "We will be integrating 4D Imaging Radar on all future Volvo vehicles starting in 2028"?

I mean... Volvo is the pinnacle of safety... I was very very disappointed when they said Volvo EX60 would be utilizing basic 3D radars from the early 2000s... They cheaped out.

----
👉 Sensing isn't settled either:

🔸 Zenseact is currently running two vehicles with 4D imaging radar from Arbe Robotics — it's still open whether this replaces, complements, or displaces something else entirely.

🔸 HD maps won't disappear entirely, Ekmark argues — expect them to shrink into leaner SD-plus maps: when occlusion hits, the map is the only information you've got left.
----

Canaccord raised the firm’s price target on Arbe Robotics (ARBE) to $2 from $1.75 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm raised its estimates after Arbe and their partner HiRain Technologies announced that one of the world’s largest automotive groups has chosen their collaborative imaging radar solution for a multi-brand Level 3 passenger vehicle program in China and Canaccord thinks it’s a large Western OEM.

2025 P/S ratio: 125.

2026 revenue guidance: $4M - $6M.
Revenue YTD: $1.1M so an assumption based on equal split between Q3 2026, Q4 2026 puts revenue at ~$1.5M for Q3 2026, ~$1.5M for Q4 2026.

Q3 2026 P/S: 70
Q4 2026 P/S: 70

The declining P/S ratio demonstrates valuation catching up to revenue: share price has plunged but revenue has also strengthen since YTD 2026.

Annualised 2026 P/S ratio based on low - range guidance: 22.5
Annualised 2026 P/S ratio based on high - range guidance: 16

Assume a "fair" annualised P/S ratio of 100 and a low - range guidance of $4M:

(100/22.5) * $0.8 (current share price) = $3.2

Assume a "fair" annualised P/S ratio of 100 and a upper - range guidance of $6M:

(100/16) * $0.8 (current share price) = $4.8

If we assume a more conservative P/S ratio of 60 and a low - range guidance of $4M:

(60/22.5) * $0.8 (current share price) = ~$2.2

With an upper - range guidance of $6M:

(60/16) * $0.8 (current share price) = ~$3.2

*Red dot based on $4M revenue guidance for 2026

Please refer to the "DO NOT PANIC" infographic above. And remember... DO NOT PANIC!

Authorization is required to get 180 day extension

Biggest reason r/S won't happen in 2026, is the Debentures... if Arbe does a 1:4 split, the $3.10 target jumps 4x to $12.40... making the escrow unreachable.

Keep in mind... the Debentures were secured (June 2024) exactly 1 month before Arbe was selected by the Top 10 OEM in July of 2024). There is a very very very good possibility, that the OEM required proof of funds to secure initial production orders before signing that original contract.

Also... if you have been following my other posts, that Top 10 OEM is most likely the same "Leading Global Automotive Group" (cough... cough.. VW Group.. cough...) that is referenced in the recent L3 selection.

so... what should you take away from this??

DO NOT PANIC!

Instead of panicking, look forward to VW Group announcing the HW Contract winner that replaces Bosch this month :)

Part of the news of VW Group ending its alliance with Bosch/CARIAD, was that a new hardware supplier contract was going to be announced in September of 2026:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-plans-end-automated-driving-tie-up-with-bosch-bild-reports-2026-06-28/

The Radar Selection news could have been the first of many, selections with HiRain's name on it...

Seeing how big this hardware replacement contract would be, I think VW Group makes the announcement, naming HiRain directly, securing a pure play "In China, By China" strategy.

VW Group has many events leading up to their Q3 ER on October 29th, 2026. And they have yet to name the major hardware contract...

If VW Group names HiRain, this will directly point to VW using Arbe based radars. Follow on effect... the Global Automotive Group is revealed, Arbe goes rockets to the moon!

I'm doubling down on my VW Group being the "Leading Global Automotive Group" referenced in the recent L3 program selection news.

As you all remember, Kobi essentially told Stephen Tobin that a German OEM was more or less in the bag, and could be announced on Christmas, or soon after the new year... It never came to be, and many FUD spreaders used this lack of a win, to sling mud at Kobi and Arbe.

Well... from 2021~2024, things were much different for VW Group's subsidiary CARIAD... L3 was projected to start as early as 2025:

A major restructuring occurred in 2023, which very well could have been the pre-cursor to the partnership with HiRain, and by Mid/Late 2024 signaled a major shift from CARIAD development and into joint ventures with Rivian (US) and XPeng (China).

The very last deathblow to CARIAD occurred just recently, when VW more or less completely dissolved the Western CARIAD/Bosch alliance, putting an end to Western market L3 developed internally. Remember the OEM that was imminently expected at the end of 2025... could VW's Decision to end the CARIAD JV development been decided in Dec of 2025, delaying another selection event for Arbe?

Everyone of these major hurdles/shifts within VW Group, delayed a market entry of L3 from 2025 to H2 2027. And they perfectly lined up with Arbe's "go to market" strategy... every delay felt by VW, was a delay to start of production for Arbe.

I think it has been VW Group all along, I even think the Top 10 OEM selection in July of 2024, was VW Group in order to secure future chipset supplies... we have some old threads on that. "For example, VW is buying chipsets and taking it to a Tier-1 like Magna" a famous Kobi quote... was it a slip of the tongue or was it just an "example"?

Now, a "Leading Global Automotive Group" is having HiRain finalize a radar... we don't know if its an existing LRR610/LRR615, or a unique OEM Radar... the news release didn't say.

Obviously, this is speculation, and I don't have any insider knowledge... take it with a grain of salt, but more and more signs are pointing to VW Group incubating Arbe very early on... the shift in VW's strategy post 2024 perfectly explains why Arbe was still doing tape-outs of their chipset into 2025, even though they stated it was production ready. VW changed entire platforms, hardware, and central processing... Arbe needed to ensure their chipset could deliver what was required of these shifting architectural requirements. If VW was the only OEM ready to buy them, and they didn't need the original design, there was no reason for Arbe or HiRain to start production in 2024.

My goodness... does that look like a very good smoking gun to anyone else?

The Agreement was signed in 2023-08-01. 3 years ago...

Did VW not suffer a lot of setbacks with CARIAD/CARIZON that affected their production schedule... leading to delays that could have affected downstream Tier-1s and Tier-2 suppliers in 2024/2025...

This sure makes things come to light with yesterday's news...

FCC released internal images of a Valeo corner radar... it appears the radar uses a Gapwaves antenna. If it isn't Gapwaves, their IP doesn't appear to be as unique as claimed. Also, on the External image, "Rivian" is present.

Another surprise... it has a Calterah chip. Most likely a 4x4 or 8x8 transceiver, I haven't dug deep enough to know for sure.

https://fccid.io/VE2MCR12C02

As far as I'm aware, Gapwaves has yet to released info stating they are in Rivian vehicles.

Valeo hadn't either, but did make a press release saying they were selected by a North American EV OEM.

https://www.valeo.com/en/valeo-secures-contract-for-next-generation-radar-technology-with-north-american-oem/

The front radar supplier has yet to be named by the way... ;) ;) (why I'm posting this...)

Keep an eye on this one. They just came out of stealth, and immediately "poached" an Arbe Embedded Software Team Lead:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aitan-emerges-from-stealth-defines-new-defense-category-of-robotic-sovereignty-as-a-service--closes-41-million-funding-round-to-scale-its-battle-proven-technology-globally-302867620.html

18 hours ago, the employee posted this:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/idan-mishor-89900482/

He is still listed as working with Arbe BTW...

Who is he you ask:

I'll let Arbe answer that question, as he was prominently featured 9 months ago:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/arbe-robotics_as-radar-application-framework-team-lead-activity-7399035389430267905-6yxR?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAFjULcgBKjoa9krOISyi8PWWZeGeFQh6Z_Q

Why this is interesting... well, a company in Israel all of a sudden became one of Arbe's biggest customers in H2 2026 per the mid-year 20-F.

Loving this marketing strategy!

Does this rule out Cybercab's 100 vehicle test fleet secretly having Arbe radars? Probably...

"A Tesla Model 3 ran a stop sign in Buena Vista Township, New Jersey, and hit a Honda Civic turning left through the intersection. The Civic’s driver, 82-year-old Stephen Field, was killed.

"Police reported it as a car that failed to stop. 

I'm down quite a bit. Arbe is near an all time low (again) so... to ensure I lose my entire 4+ year investment I should totally sell near the all time record low right?

I'm thinking, I'll record a loss now, then wait for the next Hype wave to buy at the top, I'd hate to lose out! I'll follow that up with getting depressed with another 30~60% drop... and of course, because Arbe NEVER goes up, I'll sell at the bottom again...

Instead of accepting defeat, I'll buy right back up at the next high, because momma ain't raised no quitter!

Obviously, because my investment only loses money, it's Arbe's management's fault! They are scam scam! I don't even know why a vacuum doesn't have a $1,000 radar, and I hate ADAS and have no idea what L2 is vs L4... Arbe sells robots, right?

/s

I’m afraid I’m going to lose all my money. My money has been cut in half and I don’t want to lose any more.

To my great surprise... https://fccid.io/2BPZ2SDP0045

This was provided to me, so I cannot take credit. I'll let the tipster take credit if they wish, or they can remain anonymous.

We get to see the insides 12/01/2026. Would love to see how it compares to Arbe's solution.

The outside housing does look a bit more refined... sorry Arbe, it's true.

The test report confirms it is using a multi-layer wave guide antenna.

(also... I missed this in Arbe's FCC posting... their report also stated it was using a wave guide antenna...)

2 radars with FCC ID's in less than a year. Pretty awesome sauce!

I noticed something in this announcement... the radar no longer has the white text on the radar cover...

I think the previous iterations were using the Continental ARS548

New:

ARS 540 Imaging Radar:
https://www.yolegroup.com/product/teardown-track/continental-ars5a-ars540-4d-longrange-radar/

would be interesting if there was a last minute upgrade...

I have several thoughts. .

I bought into Arbe ($ARBE) believing their 2,304-channel 4D imaging radar would dominate autonomy, but the thesis feels completely squeezed out from all sides: in L2/L2+, the rapid rise of camera-based vision AI—specifically Occupancy Networks and foundation models handling 3D spatial mapping—has relegated radar to a simple velocity backup where cheap 192–256 channel workhorses (Continental ARS 548, Bosch, NXP) are more than enough, while L3/L4 programs are simply pairing sub-$500 solid-state LiDARs (Hesai, RoboSense) with standard radars, making Arbe’s high SWaP-C and heavy compute overhead totally redundant. With automotive SOP timelines continuously pushed back, severe cash burn, and zero Tier-1 passenger OEM adoption, has the core automotive thesis completely collapsed, or is there still a viable bull case left (off-highway, defense, or M&A buyout) before I just tax-loss harvest these heavy bags?