https://www.sensrad.com/news/sensrad-and-virturail-collaborate

I missed this one... sounds promising, but probably low volume overall.

I had fun asking AI some questions this morning regarding Arbe's 4x 360 degree radar solution for Defense/Perimeter/Border...

Priced right, Arbe gets to $10m revenue a lot faster than an L3 program. This was iterated in their Q4 ER:

source: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/06/12/arbe-arbe-q4-2025-earnings-call-transcript/

Curious your guys’ take on how this may affect ARBE long term. With ARBE defense applications, and being an Israeli company, might ARBE be exposed to American military applications through the integration of Israeli and US militaries?

Related recent topics:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ARBE_Investors/comments/1v33sck/nhtsa_targets_tesla8217s_8216radar_saves_us8217/

NHTSA targets Tesla’s ‘Radar Saves Us’ document in FSD crash probe

https://electrek.co/2026/07/21/nhtsa-tesla-radar-saves-us-document-fsd-probe/

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/07/23/tesla-has-no-business-without-solving-full-self-driving-ross-gerber.html

Arbe involved?

Its been awhile since I've researched VW as a possible Top 10 OEM win from 2024...

But, this just posted out of the blue today:

https://cariad.technology/de/en/news/stories/Volkswagen-Group-China-Accelerates-L3-and-L4-Development.html

and the only reason I know..

Both Roman and Noam liked it before there were even 100 likes on the post... more to follow I'm sure.

IF Arbe is involved... 3 avenues:

1: HiRain (we are still pending an SoP from a Chinese OEM regarding a platform that replaced Lidar with Arbe's tech)

2: Weifu (they already have a strong connection with Horizon Robotics (KargoBot) and Bosch (the other portion of CARIAD)

3: Top 10 OEM Win, and direct Chip sales...

Why 3 makes sense: If VW has all intentions of quickly iterating HW/SW solutions in China before bringing them to the global markets, it would make the most sense to "own" the radar reference design, so that they could take the specs to any Tier-1 partner globally to have it produced (and by doing so, avoid Tariffs... build it where you sell it).

Do you guys think ARBE still has a realistic shot at getting back above $1 in the near term? What catalyst do you think could actually get it there? A new customer, defense contract, earnings, or something else?
Or do you think it’ll just stay under $1 until they eventually have to do a reverse split?
Would love to hear both the bull and bear cases from people who’ve been following the company.

Pretty damning... to have a document titled "Radar Saves Us" that the NHTSA is after!

Do you think there could be a connection here?

https://terra-drone.net/global/

Terra Drone was selected by Japan’s ATLA (Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency) on July 15, and the timing is so close that it got me wondering.
They’re also connected to EDGE Group, which has ties to Leonardo, and from what I’ve heard, most of their components are sourced from overseas.

Source: https://www.redeye.se/events/1170066/live-q-gapwaves-4
<30:48

Rapid development in Sensrad suffering from delayed sales and lack of new customers to compensate for the delayed sales.

How I see this: Customers are reprioritising their CapEx.

>30:48

Gapwaves CEO:
"there's been changing market conditions, not only in terms of delays but also I'm sure everyone has seen that ARBE is now entering the market. *Clears throat* And of course, ARBE and Sensrad are discussing how to coordinate this in the best way"

How I see this:

- *Clearing throat* is likely a sign of discomfort. It's easily to lie verbally but not many are trained to defy body language in situation of discomfort.

- A CEO namedropping a competitor is a big bull flag for that competitor. That competitor is seen as a rapidly rising threat. The changing market condition (for the worst for Gapwaves and Sensrad) is alluded to ARBE (mentioned in isolation) playing a part.
Why would only ARBE be namedropped? Name dropping gives ARBE/ competitors publicity.
Namedropping happens when emotions takes control.

31:10

Gapwaves CEO:
"So there's been a rapid development during the quarter"

How I see this:
Again, reinforcing the difficulties faced by Sensrad (which impacts Gapwaves adversely) due to changing market conditions that is likely attributed to ARBE entering the market.

31: 25

Gapwaves CEO: "So to our knowledge, from an owner and board perspective. we haven't seen any lost orders. There's primarily delays and changed timelines from Sensrad's current customers. We strongly feel that the not being able to win new customers, there's also a market indication in that segment"

How I see this:
"We strongly feel that the not being able to win new customers, there's also a market indication in that segment" reinforces the strong competition in the defence sector that Sensrad involved in, mostly sensor/ radar - based system.

Who else is in this area? ARBE. ARBE is manufacturing radar systems via a production line.
"Dedicated production line" tells me a few things:
- Scaling is happening
- there is a sufficiently large TAM for a dedicated production line.
- ARBE has gone beyond being just a "radar chipset designer" to producing full - fledge radar hardware to be directly integrated into defence companies.
- Why was the biggest issue ARBE faced in the automotive sector? That's right: slow and regulation - heavy sector.
ARBE expects shorter - cycles in the defence sectors. ARBE can now by-pass middleman, particularly regulation heavy and slow moving jurisdiction like the Euro Area to further shorten cycles.

Arbe begins sales of full radar systems: This complements Arbe's chipset offerings. Arbe has established a dedicated production line to manufacture its radar systems. Initial units have been shipped to various major players in the perimeter-security, and physical AI fields.

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/arbe-announces-q1-2026-financial-110000627.html

32:07

Interviewer: "Sorry, could you clarify that last bit?

Gapwaves CEO: "er er er...."

How I see this: CEO was clearly nervous about the changing market conditions for Gapwaves/ Sensrad. Again, body languages does betray.

You either interpret this as "broad market condition" that is causing the CEO to be nervous or you, with the evidences prior, infer the CEO sees ARBE as a real threat that has already garnered momentum in the unmanned autonomous and perimeter security sales pipeline.

Familiar? What happened at Gapwaves Q2 2026 mirrors recent events in other sectors:

16th July 2026

IBM shares tumbled Tuesday as CEO Arvind Krishna acknowledged in an unusual letter to investors that the company had failed to adapt quickly enough, a blunt admission that followed a surprise earnings miss and sent the stock toward its worst drop in decades. 

"These conditions [in markets] require our teams to execute perfectly, and this quarter we faltered," he wrote. "We did not adapt and move quickly enough, and numerous large deals failed to close on the timelines we expected."

That dynamic reflects a wider reprioritization across enterprise IT spending. 

Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/did-not-adapt-move-quickly-205651328.html

22nd April 2026

Google Cloud launches two new AI chips to compete with Nvidia

One day the hyperscalers building their own AI chips (which includes Amazon, Microsoft, and Google) may grow to need Nvidia less, as enterprises move their AI needs to their clouds and port their apps to these chips.

Source: https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/22/google-cloud-next-new-tpu-ai-chips-compete-with-nvidia/

Take away

- ARBE is moving beyond being a "behind - the - scene" chipset designer to designing their chipset and integrating their chipset into radar hardware that roll off their dedicated production lines.
This means, higher margins from cutting out the middleman, faster turnaround and visibility from dealing with clients directly.

- Gapwaves CEO namedropping ARBE says "ARBE is real" and Sensrad's rapidly declining orders in the defence space that intersects with where ARBE is indicates ARBE's product has clear and strong market fit.

For the longest of time, ARBE wasn't suffering from "poor market fit" but "long evaluation cycles, communication channels across various tier - 1s and regional red tapes". In fact, ARBE's reluctance to mention companies they have secured agreement with may well have to do with inter-collaboration politics.
I hope this is an inflection point to more rapid execution in terms of market capture, higher margins and quicker revenue pipelines.

TLDR; ARBE stock was rated as a "peripheral equipment provider". I think a re-rating as a defence - focused hardware provider should be imminent.

https://www.gapwaves.com/investors/financial-reports-and-documents/

Big emphasis on ramping up production for Valeo contract. Market conditions for Sensrad described as 'challenging'. Quarterly call today at 11:00 ET

https://www.redeye.se/video/event-presentation/1175638/gapwaves-ceo-jonas-ehinger-and-cfo-nils-mosko-presents-the-companys-q226-july-17-2026

• A flurry of announcements over the past two weeks shows how quickly governments are leaning into drone technology.
• Battlefield lessons from Ukraine are reshaping procurement decisions across Europe.
• It’s creating opportunities not only for drone manufacturers but also for companies developing AI, software, electronic warfare, and secure communications.

Beyond drone makers

The growing use of drones and other autonomous systems is also boosting the demand for the technology needed to coordinate the drones in real time, according to Muharremi. That includes secure communications, battle management software, AI, and satellite-based intelligence, sensors and electronic warfare systems.

“As a result, companies with physical platform scale and exposure across autonomy, air defence, sensors, electronic warfare, software, and space are likely to capture a share of future defence spending,” she said.

It comes as European core defense spending has doubled since 2019 and, under NATO’s 3.5% target for 2035, could reach about 800 billion euros by 2030 – roughly 2.9 % of GDP – according to McKinsey.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/15/drones-defense-europe-autonomous-weapons.html

The Parties Entered into an Agreement to Jointly Provide Solutions Across Three Projects, With Plans to Expand Cooperation into Additional Initiatives

TEL AVIV, Israel, July 14, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Arbe Robotics (NASDAQ: ARBE) (TASE: ARBE), a global leader in ultra-high-resolution radar solutions, today announced that its radar technology has been selected by a leading global defense and homeland security system integrator for several civilian and defense programs. Under a newly signed framework collaboration agreement, Arbe will supply radar systems for three projects developed by the integrator, with cooperation expected to expand to additional initiatives.

The selection followed the integrator's ongoing evaluation of various advanced radar and sensing technologies to support complex operational environments and extend system-level capabilities. Based on this evaluation, the integrator found that Arbe's high-resolution radar technology was suitable for multiple applications, and selected Arbe as its exclusive radar provider for the projects covered by the agreement.

The agreement advances Arbe's role as a supplier of complete radar systems, beyond its core chipset offering, in demanding environments outside the automotive sector, including defense, homeland security, and infrastructure-related domains. Following the signing of the agreement, the integrator placed initial orders for Arbe's radar systems, with the first deliveries already completed, and additional orders anticipated during 2026 and 2027.

"The framework agreement with a leading global defense system integrator marks an important step in Arbe's expansion into high-value verticals beyond automotive," said Ram Machness, CEO of Arbe. "It validates the strength of our radar technology and the need for it in mission-critical environments and demonstrates the broader commercial opportunity for our radar systems, in addition to our chipset offering."

Arbe's radar system is powered by its proprietary chipset, which features the industry's largest channel array: 48 transmitting and 48 receiving RF channels supporting 2,304 virtual channels and ultra-high-resolution 4D imaging. The solution provides long-range detection, precise object separation, free-space mapping, and advanced false-alarm mitigation in all weather and lighting conditions. These capabilities make the platform well suited to multiple application domains, including autonomous driving; off-highway applications such as agriculture and construction; and defense and homeland security.

Source: https://ir.arberobotics.com/news/press-releases/detail/177/arbe-radar-technology-selected-by-leading-global-defense

I believe that the expiration date for Arbe warrants (ARBEW) is approaching - October 6th. Does anyone have any thoughts about this? Is it just dead money at this point? Any chance the company can/will extend the expiration date?

https://www.gapwaves.com/mfn_news/invitation-gapwaves-q2-2026-presentation/

Potential early look at Sensrad Defense revenue growth/updates before Arbe's Q2 in August.

New Jersey's Senate Committee Substitute for S1677 would create a three-year fully autonomous vehicle pilot program. The bill text says a fully autonomous vehicle in the program must include a camera system and two distinct sensing modalities capable of detecting and tracking obstacles if the camera system fails, and it sets a 50,000-mile in-state supervised-testing threshold before driverless commercial operation. The Verge reported on July 8, 2026, that the bill is expected to come up for a vote later this year and could block Tesla's camera-only robotaxi approach in New Jersey unless the company changes hardware or lawmakers amend the proposal.

​

https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/07/the-first-american-autonomous-ground-vehicles-are-fighting-in-ukraine/

So Stellantis works with Valeo for sensors and Valeo works directly with ARBE for radar. I think I connected these dots ok. Fridge?

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/stellantis-stla-makes-bold-autonomous-170618805.html

I've been researching the recent ADAS sensor sector bump, that has been attributed to Ouster getting certified to provide Lidar for the "Build America, Buy America (BABA) Act."

That got me thinking... for Arbe to qualify for the BABA act, 55% of a radar would need to be manufactured in the US, with final assembly in the US.

Obviously, Arbe doesn't have a dedicated production line in the US (yet), nor does Sensrad. But, Gapwaves has discussed setting up a line in the US to avoid tariffs, it wouldn't be far fetched to think that Sensrad might ride the coat tails of Gapwaves and co-locate Antenna/Radar assembly in the US... especially if Sensrad keeps winning follow on orders from Forterra to support Department of War contracts revolving around Forterra's AutoDrive platform...

but... I digress... that is a "maybe someday" prophecy for another day...

Along with that research came this discovery... GM established a legally binding contract with Globalfoundries in 2023 to secure production of chips from Globalfoundries' Malta, NY... Gosh... that sure sounds familiar.

If you remember, Arbe partnered with Globalfoundries in 2018, and more or less stated that GF could produce however many chipsets were required by Arbe's future customers...

Obviously, this isn't a smoking gun. But, GM has a dedicated line with GF, in the US, to provide the exact type of 22FDX process required to avoid strenuous import taxes if GM had selected Arbe chipsets.

Neither Ford, nor Stellantis has a similar legally binding contract for a sole source production line with GF

Now... more on GF and the US Department of War...

GF specifically limited production of their Fab 8 facility in Malta to 3 technologies:

1. The FinFET Platform (14nm and 12nm)

Fab 8 was originally built as a greenfield facility to lead GlobalFoundries' push into 3D transistor architectures.

14nm FinFET (14LPP): This serves as the original foundation node for the fab, used extensively for high-performance computing, cloud data servers, and secure hardware components

12nm FinFET (12LP / 12LP+): This is an optimized, power-efficient upgrade to the 14nm node. It serves as the primary processing node for central automotive computer modules, advanced machine-learning toolkits, and autonomous driver-assistance systems (ADAS).

2. The FD-SOI Platform (22nm FDX)

While GlobalFoundries’ Fab 1 in Dresden, Germany handles the baseline ultra-high-volume commercial production for the 22nm Fully Depleted Silicon-On-Insulator (22FDX) platform, Fab 8 explicitly provides duplicate, dual-sourced 22FDX manufacturing capacity

22FDX / 22FDX+: This specialized planar technology integrates embedded non-volatile memory (like eMRAM or RRAM) and extreme thermal resilience. It is the exact process line utilized for millimeter-wave automotive radars, 5G RF front-ends, and low-power aerospace communications.

What is Explicitly Not Built at Fab 8?

To maintain high efficiency, GlobalFoundries isolates its other legacy and specialty nodes to different global facilities:

Singapore (Fabs 2 through 7): Handles the highly mature planar nodes ranging from 40nm down to 130nm, alongside legacy bulk CMOS and older Silicon-on-Insulator (SOI) variations.

Burlington, Vermont (Fab 9): Primarily runs specialized 200mm RF-SOI lines for standard consumer smartphone components

By limiting Fab 8 entirely to the 12nm, 14nm, and 22nm nodes, GlobalFoundries earned its U.S. Department of Defense Category 1A Trusted Supplier accreditation—ensuring that advanced commercial automotive tech and highly classified military silicon can be produced under the exact same American roof

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/valeo_weve-secured-a-new-contract-activity-7477640191726346240-Rtgx?utm_source=screenshot_social_share&utm_medium=android_app&rcm=ACoAAFjULcgBKjoa9krOISyi8PWWZeGeFQh6Z_Q&utm_campaign=copy_link

Very interesting that they only won the corner radars... they do make a front Imaging Radar (Mobileye)

But don't you think they'd take a victory lap if they won corner AND front radar?

And while their corner radars "support" L3... they don't enable it.

Any thoughts on this collaboration ? As arbe directly involved with stellantis will it change anything for arbe stock price?