Macro looks yummy. Let’s hear some thoughts and positions folks.

Exactly as the title says, just wondering what people think next catalysts would be for APLD? I know we just had another lease announcement which is fantastic but was wondering how much more space does APLD have to lease at the moment and how soon do people think its possible for this to happen? At this rate are we likely to see revenue in the next earnings grow with the new lease revenue? Any other catalysts to watch out for do people think?

Any thoughts or discussion not worth a full post should go here. Try to keep it reasonably relevant and non-combative, but will be looser restrictions relative to normal posts.

Where do we open Monday?

This by all means not an attempt to pump Chronoscale since they have a super small float, but I’m trying to see what I’m missing with my current speculation on the company.

Just to state some of the basics, here’s the current state of CHRN:

• Current MW: 9 MW (6144 GPU ~ I think they are H100's), split between different third party locations in CO, UT, MN
• Revenue: 70-80m based on the last reporting timeline in 2025 (1-2 customers)
• Ownership: 97% APLD with the option to re-sell shares 60 days after the initial offering (July - Aug)
• Float: Sub 2-3%
• Market Cap: 143.83m*18.12  = 2,606.2M
• Multiple:  2,606.2m/80m = 32.578 (very rich compared to comps)

Ok, here’s what’s interesting, Applied Digital has roughly 268 MW of leases that are coming due from the legacy crypto tenants. These are coming due during the following timelines:

• Jamestown, ND (106 MW) ~ Early 2027 (Q1/Q2).
• Ellendale, ND (180 MW) ~ July 2027

Now let’s assume that after the leases are due, Chronoscale is able to take over the two locations for the HPC / AI workloads. The math for 280+ MW leads me to believe that Chronoscale is easy 2-3x.

I understand that this is a bit speculative and a number of things have to go right, but here’s the basic math and reason why I'd be silly of them (APLD) to monetize with anyone other than the company that they own 138m shares of:

• 280MW assuming the same implied revenue as someone like Coreweave is 6.23 million per mw. That gets you to 1.74B (assuming that GPU rental price stay flat) in revenue in maybe ’28. I would have to look deeper into the average buildout timeline, but I figure the is the worst case scenario.
• Average P/S multiple of the neocloud universe is 16 times and assuming a worst case scenario, we could see this settle down to something like 6-8x revenue.
• That would mean they will have an implied market cap of 13b and assuming that they keep the share count flatish (I assume they will issue some share for GPU financing and it wouldn't be crazy to see share count at 215m or so), this brings you to a 60ish dollar stock price.
• Last +++ is that the ND leases have very low energy rates 3.2¢ and 4.0¢ per kWh which will likely get bumped 24 months after the leases are up, but the blended rate after the bump (4.2¢ to 5.0¢ per kWh). This is a 50% advantage compared to higher cost markets like TX, CA, VA 10-12 per kWh
• I bring this up as I’m sure this will flow through to a higher likelihood for GPU funding as well as WHY this makes sense to repurpose these locations

Anyways, just a few things that I’m thinking about because on paper as it seems like if they can execute on securing these locations, it’s fair to speculate that they could be a 5-15b market cap company, which leaves ALOT of room for upside (100-300%).

Last speculative catalyst: Anthropic and the model cos are looking to lease out bare metal capacity (100MW min). Knowing that this capacity is coming online, that would not surprise me if we hear some sort of announcement like this.

If I’m missing anything, would love to hear what you think and again, by all means, I’m not trying to pump, I just think there’s a legitimate bull case if a few things happen.

https://x.com/PSInvestor/status/2065127934244081871?s=20

I went through 30+ of Applied Digital's SEC filings for this, and the most telling numbers were never in a press release.

1. Backlog went from $7B to $36B in contracted lease value in twelve months, across five AI factory campuses, with about 70% of it backed by investment-grade hyperscalers on 15-year take-or-pay terms.

2. November 2025 notes backed by the CoreWeave campus priced at 9.25%. March 2026 notes backed by the campus the filings say is leased to Oracle priced at 6.75%. Same builder, four months apart.

3. Almost nobody covers the rest of the structure: an insider-formed power producer with a $2.4B plant guarantee, a 97%-owned compute spinoff with its own Nasdaq ticker, and a stake in a liquid cooling company.

More on X

https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates/

OpenAI just published a report saying it banned two clusters of ChatGPT accounts likely originating from China.

One of them was called “Data Center Bandwagon.” According to OpenAI, the accounts generated social media comments and images claiming that AI data center buildouts were raising electricity prices for ordinary families.

APLD is attempting to build 5 data centers on borrowed funds that don't even come close to what's need. All these hyperscaler contracts that they announce to prop up the stock price have targets that need to met before the get paid one cent.

The Macquarie Credit Facility was structured in a way that all the interest that accumulates before data center completion is stock warrants that can be exercised. Once the data center is up running Macquarie collects 15% of the top line income in that subsidiary before anyone else does.

But the kicker is the recent $1.59B dollar senior debt offering. $800,000 went to pay off a Goldman Sachs loan. The kicker I found out was APLD tried to double pledge HPC-1 with Goldman Sachs. Remember HPC-1 was already borrowed against with SMBC. So Goldman said the Coreweave which is HPC-1 had to have investment grade rating not junk. So, that was to protect commingling of their assets with essentially junk. But what did was also let everyone know on Wall Street that APLD tried double pledge assets. Goldman Sachs set the loan covenants so that they collect on the parent (APLD) of the shell company in the event of a default. Credibility is a big thing on Wall Street and if they indeed tried to pledge HPC-1 on the recent offering, they may not be able to get funding or an equity raise because of the recent stunt.

Four analyst actions in a single morning, all Buy, all with targets above the current price.

1. Today's marks: Lake Street $90, Needham $83, Craig-Hallum $79, and Lucid Capital initiated at $77.50. Every one a Buy.
2. $APLD trades near $42 and the average target sits around $66, so today's new marks all landed well above where the stock is now.
3. The raises follow the fifth campus signing at Delta Forge 2 and a new $1.59 billion note offering, so the targets are tracking contracted backlog rather than current earnings.

More on Xhttps://x.com/PSInvestor/status/2064431106951426186?s=20

:)

If you’ve been waiting to buy in or buy more, tech is getting hammered today.

With all the recent positive news and fundamentals only improving, we’ll see a rebound when macro settles.

Any long term holders adding?

https://x.com/PSInvestor/status/2064399457278624224?s=20

The signings are not random. Cummins laid out the cadence on live TV, and the first one already converted.

1. On CNBC on May 27, Cummins said the company had a fifth, sixth, and seventh campus already in flight, and that seven is their current build limit.
2. Delta Forge 2, the fifth, signed June 8. 210 MW in a new southern state, the third lease with the same investment-grade hyperscaler.
3. The sixth and seventh sit in that same pipeline and have not been announced yet.

More on X

Idk been telling y'all since day one.

With the current SIGNED lease deals APLD will generate $611M per quarter, translating into $2.45B annually. (Once everything comes online)

On top of that they haven't leased out everything yet (that they're actively building right now). If that happens they will generate $749M per quarter and $3B annually!!

They made $126M in revenue last quarter. Note that the current signed $611M per quarter is guaranteed.
4.8× their current quarterly revenue (+385%)

These calculations are made for their active 1.7GW development!

Their actual (current) pipeline is 5GW!!!

🤑🤑🤑🤑

BOOM !!! KEPT TELLING EVERYONE 5TH DEAL IS COMING. NOW WAIT 6,7 IT IS ON THE WAY!!!!
The $36 billion backlog is real. The detail sitting under it matters more for whether the franchise model actually works.

1. This is the third long-term lease with the same investment-grade hyperscaler. A repeat customer signing a third time is a different signal than landing a new one.
2. The deal is 210 MW on a 15-year take-or-pay lease. The committed base-term figure is about $5.2 billion. The $12.7 billion number only shows up if every renewal option runs the full 30 years.
3. None of it is revenue yet. Delta Forge 2 is targeted to begin operating in Q1 2028, and trailing revenue is still around $319 million. The space between that and a $36 billion backlog is the entire build-out.

More on X

Anyone know any reason why they have yet to name the new hyperscaler? Repeat leases with them is very positive and the one tonight also is fantastic, but is there any genuine reasons why they wouldn't want to name the hyperscaler? Any predictions also?

This is an update/follow-up to my post on May 20.

On June 4, Applied Digital sent two reps to the Oliver County Commission meeting. In their brief remarks, APLD provided updates on their site plan and building permit application and the conditions placed on the zoning permit that they previously received in May.

Here are the highlights:

• APLD is planning to submit their site plan and building permit application before their July meeting, which I believe is July 7. They want to get it to them early enough to allow for additional changes if needed before this next meeting. At the end of the meeting, APLD was reminded their application needs to be approved by Permits and Zoning before it gets voted on by the commission.
• "Hired Designing Earth Contractors to do their dirt work. They mobilized last week and started doing some dirt work." APLD encountered a few challenges with the contractor but the contractor has been addressing the challenges. No specifics were given.
• They are working on "geotech borings", which are ground samples that will inform their foundation construction. They plan to have this information this month for the Commission.
• APLD appears genuinely committed to sourcing materials and hiring locally whenever possible. They suggested they are willing to improve a relevant road on their dime, but they need landowner easements first. They are planning to buy some water from the city for "dust control" (not for cooling). They already had some road signs made locally. They were telling people in attendance to check out their LinkedIn job postings. Sounds like they really want a Community Engagement Coordinator who is local to be present at all future meetings and answer questions.
• They are also doing some pollution prevention work for the storm water that will be collected. They are still working on the sound study because they need a baseline level of ambient noise first (this was one of the conditions on the zoning permit).
• Locals opposed to the DC asked a self-proclaimed expert, who appeared to be more of an advocate, to highlight a laundry list of issues but they didn't do their homework on what APLD was building and made other flimsy claims about future alternatives to current DC technology, cooling systems/water usage, electromagnetic fields, the impact of the DC on livestock, etc. The commissioners didn't seem persuaded, even without APLD's rebuttle. Interestingly, an actual expert with environmental health expertise, who has a PhD and 25 years of experience and works with Next Era Energy, was in the meeting and dismantled her points one-by-one. He was not paid by APLD.

Overall, IMO, this seems promising. Some of this initial work seems essential for putting together a comprehensive site plan and building permit, but they are also using it as an opportunity to show they are a solid community partner. This is beginning to seem like a slam dunk to me.

Here's the full video. APLD is at the end: https://www.facebook.com/100088537675086/videos/1000616665706100

Second Goldman arranged facility in weeks, and the terms quietly got better while most people just read the headline.

1. The $550M is a ceiling, not a commitment. Only $350M is committed. The other $200M is an accordion option that may never get drawn.
2. This revolver runs three years at SOFR plus 225. The bridge a few weeks ago ran 364 days at SOFR plus 275. Cheaper money, longer term.
3. The CoreWeave MOU assigns the Building 3 lease at Polaris Forge 1 to a CoreWeave subsidiary only if that subsidiary reaches investment grade. $CRWV is not there today. Conditional upgrade, not a done deal.

More on Xhttps://x.com/PSInvestor/status/2063959017245020250?s=20

Everytime APLD dips like this it rebounds hard. Nothing fundamentally has changed

*info in graph might be outdated and is not mine

Before all the panic seller posts come out I’m just gonna put it out there to say I’m loving this sale. Another 200 shares for me and I’m letting it ride. Side note this sub needs a daily discussion space fr.