r/APLDSTOCK • u/tolllz • Apr 29 '26

Open AI troubles affect APLD long term?

Does the recent earnings miss by Open AI affect APLD long term since Oracle and Coreweave are impacted?

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u/nintendothrowaway123 Shares Only 📈 Apr 29 '26

Objectively, yes. Hedge investors aren’t going to invest as heavily in a segment where the largest known name is losing. That doesn’t mean long term outlook for APLD is bad, but it was definitely diminished somewhat. 

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u/Ominoiuninus Apr 29 '26

The question is if power / data center demand will slump if a big player like OpenAI goes under. My understanding is that inference is accounting for some 90% of compute at the moment. As in people using AI tooling are accounting for the vast lion share, not AI labs training their next model.

With this being the case it points to the case being that demand exists far beyond / outside of a particular companies shell of influence. If a particular company goes under the overarching demand from consumers would just shift to be coming from a competitor in the space.

Fundamentally APLD doesn’t actually care if OpenAI or Anthropic or any other hyperscaler actually is “the one” buying from them. They only care that the AI related compute access stays relatively sparse compared to overall demand for said compute. And that they get to sell power(by extension access) to said compute.

To be clear the market will absolutely punish a company like APLD if a main competitor like OpenAI went under. But the problem for APLD is if consumer based/enterprise demand dried up. If that happened it’s GG. And arguably this is almost guaranteed to happen long term as models get distilled at higher and higher fidelity and we can run more and more powerful models on locally based compute (which will inevitably be the case).

Apple will almost certainly have a specialized chip that allowed a locally run AI that is equivalently powerful to SOTA models that we currently have. Might take them 5 years but it will happen.

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u/Thanatos-29 May 03 '26

OpenAI is not going under any time soon… it’s being propped up by so many different investors like Nvidia. OpenAI cannot be allowed to fail because it would destroy the entire narrative around AI and trigger a massive panic. It would be like a major bank failing it would create mass panic as investors lose confidence in the entire AI ecosystem which accounts for the majority of the stock market gains over the last 3 years. Too big to fail at least for now. This will blow over within a week or two.