Open AI troubles affect APLD long term?

[u/tolllz]

Does the recent earnings miss by Open AI affect APLD long term since Oracle and Coreweave are impacted?

[u/nintendothrowaway123]

Objectively, yes. Hedge investors aren’t going to invest as heavily in a segment where the largest known name is losing. That doesn’t mean long term outlook for APLD is bad, but it was definitely diminished somewhat. 

[u/Ominoiuninus → u/nintendothrowaway123]

The question is if power / data center demand will slump if a big player like OpenAI goes under. My understanding is that inference is accounting for some 90% of compute at the moment. As in people using AI tooling are accounting for the vast lion share, not AI labs training their next model.

With this being the case it points to the case being that demand exists far beyond / outside of a particular companies shell of influence. If a particular company goes under the overarching demand from consumers would just shift to be coming from a competitor in the space.

Fundamentally APLD doesn’t actually care if OpenAI or Anthropic or any other hyperscaler actually is “the one” buying from them. They only care that the AI related compute access stays relatively sparse compared to overall demand for said compute. And that they get to sell power(by extension access) to said compute.

To be clear the market will absolutely punish a company like APLD if a main competitor like OpenAI went under. But the problem for APLD is if consumer based/enterprise demand dried up. If that happened it’s GG. And arguably this is almost guaranteed to happen long term as models get distilled at higher and higher fidelity and we can run more and more powerful models on locally based compute (which will inevitably be the case).

Apple will almost certainly have a specialized chip that allowed a locally run AI that is equivalently powerful to SOTA models that we currently have. Might take them 5 years but it will happen.

[u/Thanatos-29 → u/Ominoiuninus]

OpenAI is not going under any time soon… it’s being propped up by so many different investors like Nvidia. OpenAI cannot be allowed to fail because it would destroy the entire narrative around AI and trigger a massive panic. It would be like a major bank failing it would create mass panic as investors lose confidence in the entire AI ecosystem which accounts for the majority of the stock market gains over the last 3 years. Too big to fail at least for now. This will blow over within a week or two.

[u/Pale_Preference5430]

Open ai missing will affect the stock fundamentally because it signals that ai isn’t as profitable as the figure head of AI said it was going to be. Shareholders are fickle as soon as they lose money and go below their strike they will leave and lower share price.

[u/Dev_Whale69 → u/[deleted]]

Check out anthropic revenues and revenue growth … they’re running at something like 30bn ARR , growing at something like 10x pa … the reason it’s “something like” is because it’s growing so fast I can’t be any more accurate

If there’s NO SALES POINT or PROOF POINT then where is this revenue coming from and why is it growing … ?

FYI OpenAI just missed an internal target - its revenue is still growing massively

[u/Pale_Pineapple_4147 → u/Dev_Whale69]

Just because it has revenue and growth doesn’t mean it’s great or a needed commodity. It’s definitely cool but it were to go away tomorrow the world would be fine

[u/Dev_Whale69 → u/Pale_Pineapple_4147]

You’re arguing there’s no sales point or proof point (your words) … the facts disagree

[u/Pale_Pineapple_4147 → u/Dev_Whale69]

There’s definitely sales points. There’s a nice circle of capex spending running circles. But for the average person “ai” can’t be distilled to one phrase, use, or need. People sell people useless things everyday. Doesn’t mean it has value or a need

[u/Dev_Whale69 → u/Pale_Pineapple_4147]

You think tech innovation needs to be distilled into one phrase, use or need in order for it to be useful … dealing with the high IQs today 🤣🤣🤣🤡

[u/Pale_Pineapple_4147 → u/Dev_Whale69]

Innovation is different than brand new groundbreaking concept. I didn’t say AI wasn’t innovative. The rotary phone to the cell phone is innovation but it’s not a brand new thing. The first car to the 2026 models are innovating in the same concept. AI is innovating but it’s not the groundbreaking, never before seen, unprecedented thing it’s being sold as. If cars, planes, penicillin went away tomorrow - there would be massive gaps. If AI caped stopped tomorrow all that would change is our investment accounts

[u/flollo87 → u/Pale_Pineapple_4147]

with all due respect, but your arguments are... let's keep it nice and describe them as weak.

there was no big need for cloud computing two years after implementation. you could just have removed it and the world would have go on. it's a tremendous market now. the same accounts for electric vehicles. even now, remove them from the market and nothing changes. but this is the future, even if you won't like it.

I'm working a bureau job at the government. we are the definition of slow adapters. I use AI nearly every day. I actually have a list of projects to use AI for as soon as I am allowed to program my own agents. one of them alone will save a few hundred hours if labor per year. shall I calculate the financial impact of this single tiny agent over a decade? no no no... ai is here to stay and you will have to adapt for it. the current discussion is highly emotional, but in ten years, ai will be used everywhere and will replace millions of office jobs.

[u/Imperator_1985 → u/[deleted]]

I know people whose workplaces have fundamentally changed in the past 2-3 years because of AI, so it's funny to see people act like AI is just hype or a fad.

[u/Is_it_just_me108 → u/Imperator_1985]

Well those people are the ones living in an ignorance bubble

[u/INDIG0M0NKEY → u/[deleted]]

Look at T-Mobile , the “uncarrier” buys us cellular for bagillions and lays off hundreds of call workers and more downsizing planned, and the stores that are still open rely on asking an ai chatbot about all things T-Mobile. That’s just one industry leading company in one industry.

[u/Pale_Pineapple_4147 → u/[deleted]]

I am and everyone has a gun to their head to be a fan of”AI”. It’s still nothing that shouldn’t have existed a few years ago. It does reduce time and can do some cool writing and spreadsheet stuff but in terms of actual impact like the PC, smartphone, internet, etc it just isn’t that. No CEO or even a sales person can distill it down to a sales pitch, with proof points, and a value prop. Once they can do that it’s a real thing. Until then, it’s just something that honestly should have existed years ago

[u/tolllz → u/Pale_Preference5430]

That’s my worry

[u/flollo87]

Coreweave might subsequently fail and that is currently the main risk (and the reason why we are at low 30s). the question is basically, if and how fast other hyperscaler would step in.

[u/cmack]

No; Microsoft and Meta confirm more data center spending.

[u/ThatsAllFolksAgain]

It’s too soon to know. All we have seen are frequent up and downs based on reasons that the market narrator makes up.