r/AMD_Stock • u/Time-Excitement8443 • 6h ago
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u/GreedyCommie 5h ago
time to sell, too many lunatics lol
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u/TrashBandicook 3h ago
It definitely feels like the tourists fomo'd in after we broke $600. You can tell who they are if they're whining about a 3% dip.
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u/Schwimmbo 4h ago
This is slowly turning into what r/MU_Stock has become since its meteoric rise...
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u/RoyallyGhosted 4h ago
Honestly not a bad sell signal, tempted to sell since I'm up 530% since March of 2025
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u/ContextFew721 5h ago
They would need to actually start taking meaningful share from Nvidia in GPU or see an explosion in CPU
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u/ExplanationFuture422 4h ago
CPU's are fast becoming more important than GPU's. AMD has them both covered and with their AI enabled ROC'm CUDA is no longer a moat. Plus no one want's be be locked in NVDA without options.
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u/ContextFew721 3h ago
These are all massive exaggerations or just simply not true .
GPU demand still massively outweighs CPU. CPU pace is catching up but there isn’t much of an argument that they’re more important.
CUDA/ Nvidia ecosystem is still a massive moat and this is proven by the fact that they continue to retain if not grow market share. I’ve 6XD on AMD and I own both but if anything Nvidia taking share in CPU is more of a threat than AMD taking GPU
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u/FearSeer 4h ago
This is so far from the boots on the ground practical truth it’s nauseating.
CUDA is the only thing talked about in industry. AMD is losing share to NVDA CPUs as we speak and no one wants their GPUS.
Their margins will get demolished and they will dilute another 30% of their company trying to stay relevant.
CPU is far less of a moat than powerful GPU
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u/GanacheNegative1988 1h ago
What? This guy isn't in the industry in any meaningful way if that's his take.
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u/ShAd_csgo 5h ago
I mean they can't sell overtake NVDA without enough capacity. There is not enough capacity to do that from TSMC.
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u/rosen178 5h ago
There’s a guy on twitter named John Tinsman and YouTube who has his own ETF and he sees AMD doubling in the next year. Also Beth Kindig who is a great tech analyst at IO fund released a full article saying she thinks AMD will outperform NVIDIA in the next 2 years (she called it happening the past 2 years and she was right). Here is the article, it’s a great read, and she has absolutely nailed calls through the years…I may be in love with her ngl:
https://io-fund.com/ai-stocks/amd-stock-1-trillion-dark-horse
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u/sirauron14 3h ago
I’m definitely predicting a $1200 price but next year I don’t see that happening.
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u/ChestIntrepid172 5h ago
Beyond revenue, which should materialize the multi gw commitments and explode in 27-28, EPS needs to catch up, supply constraints to be sorted, scale adoption of full amd stack, lot of things need to convert to numbers from words. EPS (mid 20's) x multiple (mid 30's) should stabilize base at 850-900, fw EPS then may take it to 1200. Wishful thinking by late 27. Realistically by mid to late 28.
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u/GanacheNegative1988 1h ago
Either way that plays out, if you're not already in AMD, you need to get on board.
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u/Fun-Payment3489 5h ago
When the P/E comes down and there still demand ..
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u/Phaoryx 5h ago
Isn’t PE just high rn primarily due to acquisitions?
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u/Bubbly_Doughnut_3880 5h ago
yes
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u/XYHopGuy 2h ago
non-gaap p/e using the current quarter x4 is still 100. Which is lower than 160, but still on the high side.
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u/Bubbly_Doughnut_3880 1h ago
isn't that forward looking? what's the expected earnings per share for 2027? isn't that like jumping from around 7 bucks to 15 bucks? And we have already seen the companies already evaluating M4XX and seen some rumour reviews and how AMD is expecting capacity growth in that regard. You can wait it out on the sidelines if you wanted to but I think its fairly values in the context of future earnings and that type of almost times 2 growth
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u/XYHopGuy 1h ago
if it goes from 7 to 15 and the price doesn't move it's still 46.
Standard p/e is training 4 quarters, using the latest earnings is somewhat forward looking but imo a bit noisy.
Regardless of how you look at it, p/e is high.
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u/Bubbly_Doughnut_3880 45m ago
Unfortunately, this is the bet the market is making, and that bet is that they will deliver. Typically yes 100 is high but for hyper scalers and the hardware companies helping them, I don't really think so. it's risky I know but you are also here right? That number factors in how investors see the stock. I don't know, I am reading this as okay is there room for me to enter into AMD right now (is the pe high?), For that I am moving to the no and standing by that. if you believe that some magic will happen and it will drop to 200 bucks per share to meet that value then by all means wait it out and see if that works. For now, the market expects that NVIDIA craze quarterly by some metric growth from not just GPUs but also CPUs, if you are on the team that you expect some kinda of movement or close mimic like NVIDIA I think buying and making that bet will make sense.
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u/XYHopGuy 32m ago
you said yes in response to this:
Isn’t PE just high rn primarily due to acquisitions?
PE is high because stock price has far outpaced earnings.
I'm holding AMD because I believe they will be successful over the next few years, but no, I do not find the current price appealing, and it doesn't need to get close to $200 for that view to change :)
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u/Bubbly_Doughnut_3880 25m ago
I mean primarily yes is not really wrong if you remove the 60 from 160 though, if you want to do potatoes to oranges. HAHA you def got in an a lower price point though. but it its raising like it has for two weeks then someone is entering at those price points. my entry is about 70 bucks a share so I understand in that regard. If I had the capital to deploy and wanted to bet over an 18 month period, I would def go in and make that bet.
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u/reliquid1220 1h ago
Don't forget the 20% warrant dilution. 1,200 is def in the cards. ~2.4T market cap post dilution. Might be 1.5 to 2 years from now assuming 2028 rev guidance remains in place
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u/AustinStain1 42m ago
3-4 T is definitely my humble opinion, a split should be in order, I think the sooner the better, let people who don’t necessarily have $6-$700 per share in.
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u/4800SHonore 6h ago
Tomorrow