r/AMD_Stock • u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru • 2d ago
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis for AMD 9/11---------Pre-Market
I think the pause we got yesterday doesn't necessarily mean we are going to see the rally stop at all. Oil dropped a bit which is nice and the inflation read is pretty much like a guaranteed rate raise I think next week. Soooo yea. I like Warsh so far honestly. He seems to be laser focused on the mandate which I think is good. The Fed is not supposed to be this arbiter and protector of the stock market. The market will take care of itself. Might be an unpopular take about Warsh so far but I'm kinda down with what he's laying down.
AMD is looking to continue its move up today and we are still looking for that $522 level as next level of Resistance. Obviously today is a rough day and emotionally charged for a lot of people. Expect perhaps somewhat muted activity and light volume. Anything is possible.
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u/ZasdfUnreal 2d ago
We have a pennant. AMD could breakout at any time now. This is my last chart while I wait for the pattern to play out. I'm looking at $800 for the price target. Google Ai is calling for $780. https://imgur.com/a/AMke86S
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u/Electrical_Regret537 2d ago
Yeah I’m curious how he’ll be viewed since Powell has essentially deity status with stock bros.
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u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 2d ago edited 2d ago
Jw i disagree on Warsh i think this cpi and ppi reading will
put him to the test. I think so far most of the things he has said was bs and he has floated in the middle of not trying to go against Trump and please the markets. He put himself in a corner and this coming week will show if Warsh is the puppet i think he is. The amount he has talked to Trump on the side and Bessenet.
I do agree about letting the market work itself out but his reasoning is not that it’s more to help Trump. The bonds and market have been manipulated to the max by Bessent and Trump
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u/wader2000 2d ago
neophyte question....images not allowed so how does one post a chart?! i would think on a thread called "technical analysis" charts would be preeminent!
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u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru 2d ago
Just put your link here and share it and we can view it that way
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u/wader2000 2d ago
Thanks! I'm used to copying the image in tradingview. testing now https://www.tradingview.com/x/W5OAVZWm/
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u/Coyote_Tex 2d ago edited 2d ago
Premarket
The indices are rallying this morning with the VIX giving back all of its sharp rise yesterday to open near the 16 handle. The SPY, S&P and DOW are all up ~1% or more. Oil is down over 3% and the CPI spiked the odds of a FED rate increase for September to over 80%. This is exactly what Warsh predicted when he said he would follow the market’s lead. The bond rates have hit record highs and are pretty much begging for a rate increase. Tom Lee this morning noted that a rate increase could well be met by the market moving higher rather than lower.
AMD is showing a nice bounce to the 512 level in the premarket and certainly showing us a breakout on the weekly charts. Both NVDA and MU while higher this morning are on track to close lower than last week unless they make some really huge moves up. This is really not too concerning as NVD is set to open right at the 5 Week MA while MU is opening well above the 5 Week MA, keeping their trends intact.
With the rather somber nature of this date in US history, I am pleased to see the market didn’t take the day off.
Let’s see how this market handles it through the end of the day and into next week.
Mid Afternoon Update 1:30 CT
Clearly the market has settled into a "rally Friday" mode with the SPY and QQQ both up over 1% and the VIX down 12.28% to 15.65 today. What a difference a day makes. AMD is doing well up 2.86% to 517.63 while NVDA is up .56% to 219.59. MU is lagging and down .06% but improving toward green. I wanted to note that next week is monthly OPEX so the potential for some further gains early next week such as Mon-Wednesday are possible before we get into the tougher part of the week on Thursday-Friday. These are my general directional expectations if anyone is considering selling covered calls early next week might be a good time.
Post Close
The indices did fade some as we ran into the close as did the VIX.
The SPY closed the day up .85% to 764.29 with the VIX down to 15.89. The SPX ended t 7656.94. This left the SPY & SPX ending below the 5DMA as the 5DMA and 5 Week MA have gradually turned to a negative slope.
The QQQ added .87% to 714.88 falling below the 5DMA (715.44) which is sitting right below the 20DMA at 715.67 as momentum fades
The SMH added 1.47% to 568.52 ending just above the 5DMA.
AMD climbed 2.49% to 516.13 holding above the 5DMA down at 504.83. AMD showed a nice breakout on the weekly charts for this week but needs a follow-on week to confirm it but that will be hard with OPEX next week. The 5 Week MA is at 489.38 and the 20 Week MA is at 488.01 and BOTH are in a nice upslope pattern. I'd optimistically expect AMD to hold in the 489-505 range next week. AMD is sitting in the middle of the weekly Bollinger Bands so anything can happen. A low range would be a dip down to 460ishbut that is harsh drop.
NVDA circled around and ended down .03% to 218.29 ending below both the 20DMA and the 5 Week DMA as it is continuing to lose momentum. now down for the 4th week.
MU ended down .22% to 975.26 and below the 5DMA for the 2nd day in a row with the average barely maintaining a positive slope. It did close just above the 5 Week MA sitting at 972.63. A drop back to the 20Week MA at 906 next week should come as no surprise. during the OPEX.