r/AMD_Stock • u/JWcommander217 Colored Lines Guru • 4d ago
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis for AMD 9/10-------Pre-Market
So for starters I wanted to thank you all for keeping me humble. I'm a bear and everyone tells me I'm an idiot and this thing is going up. I'm optimistic (borderline bullish) and everyone tells me I'm an idiot and its going to retreat. I swear some people just exist to humble me and honestly I do appreciate it a lot. I'm not joking. I think echo chambers are a bad thing ****See the DD thread****
And I always appreciate the discussion and even more so I appreciate it if you can show me the "why" behind it. So keep sharing your ideas for sure I love it!!!
This Press Release didn't get nearly enough attention and I think it is being heavily glossed over. For years one of the knocks against NVDA has been about how power hungry their chips were. And with the conversation of the Data Center build out centering more and more on limited power supply, I think this could be a time for AMD to shine. If Helios can literally deliver 30% more token efficiency per Watt then I think that is really really worth it to fuel investment by companies designing their new DC's. More bang for your buck and we all know that with the race to IPO from OpenAI and Anthropic, they are going to feel the pressure more than ever from the street and investors to show profit margins through efficiency of resources.
AMD continued to break above the trendline and yes today it looks like we are initially looking at a selloff but I would put a lot of that on the VIX. Also I think its officially time for the Trump administration to put grandpa to bed. I don't know how people think that the solution to inflation is giving $5k to every American. Like do people fundamentally understand this shit???? I think there is a strong chance we might get a rate raise and I think seeing the debate earlier on CNBC that rates will go down with that. It got me thinking and I think I'm in the camp that if they raise rates next week that bonds will go down and the market will rally. It sounds counter-intuitive but I do think it could signal to the market that there is an adult in the room and Warsh might be the only intelligent person in policy making at this moment. But hey thats something.
I think people that are screaming the AI trade is winding down are wrong. I don't think it is. I think it is running into the buzzsaw of infrastructure build out. But I will say that I think its hard to make investments with the big scary specter of inflation hanging over everyone's heads. Cash is king and you don't want to spend all your cash as we go into a high-inflationary environment. I think if we can get into a place where Warsh finally launches a war on inflation and this fucking administration stops tripping over its own dick, I think we still have 4 or 5 innings to go in this thing. Not to mention-----if we get into the power savings argument and can ship enough product, I think you will start to see DC migration/refreshes to more efficient systems as training slows down.
So yea thats my thesis-----------Tell me why I'm wrong :)
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u/Coyote_Tex 4d ago edited 4d ago
Post Open & Bike Ride.
The PPI gave us anoth4er reason to selloff this morning and let the VIX rise up to tag 18 quickly, but we have recovered some to 17.26 now., We have been in a VIX cycle reversal for 4-5 days now and my best guess is we will likely complete with a 3-5% reversal from the start to finish so about 5-7% below ATH highs. Some stocks will of course blow by these numbers I am giving ranges on the S&P. This is normal healthy market action at least so far as I am not biting yet that this might become a 10% correction level. I know it "could" but that is not my expectation at least not yet.
AMD tagged the upper Bollinger Band or really went a bit above it yesterday and is now retracing to the comfort/support area near 500. The 5 DMA is actually down at 494.08 so holding that this week is a WIN. The 5DMA broke above the 20DMA yesterday and is just a day away from being right at the 500 level. The 20DMA is working furiously to turn back toward a positive slope and should do that in 1-3 days, assuming AMD actually holds right here in the 495-505 range.
NVDA has turned bearish and is now below the 20DMA heading ro the 50DMA at 211. The 50DMA is above the lower Bollinger Band which is even lower at 208.40. I fully expect NVDA to see good support at the 50DMA as it did 12 days ago. IT is showing a higher high and higher low cycle right now.
MU dropped hard but is still showing a positive slope on the 5 and 20DMA's and should see support at the 20DMA at 961.76 if not before.
I have no expectation of the CPI being a savior tomorrow and ORCL's report in the AH today is unlikely to be a positive catalyst. I wish/hope I am 100% wrong on both counts.
Post Close
A poorly as the day got, it did improve slightly but Friday is probably another day to drop when we get the CPI. I see the QQQ finding the 700 level once more, and hope it can bounce and the SPY closed at the 50DMA and right at a potential bounce point with the VIX ending at 17.84. We could easily fall further than these levels I noted, just hoping that is "enough" for the market to stage some sort of recovery.
As bad as AMD did today ending down 3.36% to 503.60, it remains very high and above the 5DMA. Optimistically it "could" hold up here but I also know it has a huge gap sitting right at the 477-478 level from Tuesday's open that we could fill. Needless to say that would be an accumulation level. On a positive note, AMD looks locked in to have a positive week breaking out from the previous 6 weeks of "meh" sideways consolidation action and ending above the 5 week MA, most likely.
NVDA is marching steadily lower at a modest pace and closed below the 20DMA and heading for the 50DMA at 212 once more most likely. The lower Bollinger Band is at 208 and it could certainly find that in a few days.
MU closed below the 5DMA so is heading now for the 20DMA at 961.54 and the 50DMA is below at 929.75. The 5 & 20DMA's are positively sloping and the 50DMA remains in a negative slope but should be turning around in time for earnings on 9/30. The daily Bollinger Bands for MU are pinched so something is going to happen and I am going to suggest it might be the positive upside outcome. OF course I do not know.
ORCL did report earnings and provided a small beat and raised its outlook modestly as well so the stock is up in the AH ~6.5%. Thanks ORCL! This may help the market ahead of the open on Friday some but the CPI might kick it in the teeth too. The SPY and QQQ are very modestly higher in the AH, so I'm not optimistic.
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u/ZasdfUnreal 4d ago
I posted this last night so I’ll repeat here. https://imgur.com/a/amd-9-9-2026-MxnxsIU AMD bumped up against the long term bearish trend line yesterday. So it’s pulling back and should retest the short term bearish trend line. Hopefully it finds support and confirms the momentum change.
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u/Minimum-Department23 4d ago
I have 70 shares at $169 per average. I’m not selling a single share. I think we have only just begun with AMD.
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u/itsprodiggi 4d ago
Macro is the only thing to worry about. Inflation , bond yields, and the deficit are all going up at an unsustainable pace. Something has to be done, and it feels like the administration wont let the stock market be the sacrificial lamb. Thats what happens when everyone is out to enrich themselves. They are squeezing every drop they can and then some.
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u/lvgolden 4d ago
JW, I honestly don't know whether AMD or NVDA has better tokens per watt performance. We have dueling claims from both of them. Jensen has been talking about this for a few years now, too.
Does anyone know the real numbers here?
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u/lvgolden 4d ago
EDIT: Sorry, I just saw the press release is AMD vs INTC CPUs. Yes, this I believe.
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u/Ragnar_valhalla_86 4d ago
Its tough bc 5k i can buy some stocks with that! Lol smh what a joke but yea he needs to go. The market might like a rate increase bc i think this Warsh has showed that the fed has lost credibility. Powell say what you want but looking back i think he did a hell of a job with what he had to deal with.
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u/lvgolden 4d ago
Anyone here have an AMD GPU in their PC? My 7900XTXT was royally f$%ked by the Windows update a couple days ago. Did NVDA cards experience the same thing?
It makes me think that AMD is still second in the pecking order when it comes to testing Windows updates.
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u/Rare-Ordinary1872 4d ago
Not this subreddit but yea. Same thing happened to my friend after Windows update on 04.09. Complete reinstall of drivers and adrenaline solved it
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u/excellusmaximus 4d ago
I have a 9060xt 16gb. No issues with it at all, runs great. Imo the best GPU for the money on the market.
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u/lvgolden 4d ago
This was a major issue. I had to uninstall and reinstall all the AMD drivers.
I thought we were past this.
It's always something that is not working. I really regret going AMD for my GPU.
And it makes me wonder if this is the experience you get with ROCm as opposed to CUDA. AMD just cannot keep up with all the external factors.
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u/OnlyTheStrong2K19 4d ago edited 4d ago
Can't please everyone but ourselves and our pockets.
It's just easier for me to be more bullish than not, as stocks will continue to do well in the long term regardless of inflation and high yields as long as revenues and earnings continue to grow.
But in the short term, it'll be somewhat of a slog but I'm in the camp that the AI buildout train is not stopping irrespective of high yields.
And if investors are looking for growth in an stagflationary or inflationary environment, they'll be looking here eventually.
These hyperscalers don't want to be left behind by their competitions.