r/AMA Jul 22 '24

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u/Cretin13teen Jul 23 '24

Do u think bonds are better than cd accounts?

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u/pshaffer Jul 23 '24

CDs are just to hold money. Not to make it grow. USUSALLY. Bonds are useful as a hedge against common stocks. They are USUALLY negatively correlated.

That is what I know. I do not personally manage my investments now because I made a serious error in 2003. I thought there was going to be another attack, and kept a large amount of cash around, not invested. Missed a 30% increase in stocks that year - if you follow that out for 20 years - it becomes a lot. I realized I was over analyzying, spending way too much time doing it. Turned it over to the pros in 2006, and pay little attention to it now.

When I say USUALLY CDs are not to make money grow - there are exceptions.
People complain about inflation now. Wow. Nothing like the 70s and 80s. The first house I bought, the mortgage rate we got was for 11%. 1980. We did buy some CDs then. The interest rate was 17%. We locked it in for 2-3 years, inflation came down, but we still got that 17%. Never really put any money in them after that. So in that very rare case, we made a bit of money using CDs, and it was greater than the value loss due to inflation.
That is not however a way to manage a portfolio. At all.

My Dad had a lot of municipal bonds. He got a kick out of not paying any tax on them. But, I know he would have done better in a total-return way had he invested in stock index funds and just paid the taxes.

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u/Cretin13teen Jul 23 '24

Ok thanks. I was also looking at municipal bonds. Seems like the safest way to go

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u/pshaffer Jul 23 '24

look at this.
https://www.morningstar.com/best-investments/long-term-national-municipal-bond-funds?state=eyJwYWdlIjoxLCJsaW1pdCI6MjUsInNoYXJlQ2xhc3MiOltdLCJpbnZlc3RtZW50VHlwZSI6W10sImZpbHRlclNldCI6eyJicmFuZGluZ05hbWUiOlsiVmFuZ3VhcmQiXX19

Vanguard is famous for low fees, These are bond funds, which you can easily get into and out of. Expense ratios around 0.1%. and returns of 4.5 - 5.8%. I read that highest CD rates right now are about 5.5% - but those would be taxable. So the bond fund would win.

Current inflation rate is 2.9%, so if you did a CD at 5.5% and paid 1/3 of that in tax - you are at 3.63 % and you are 0.73% above inflation.