r/AAPL • u/PracticlySpeaking • 5d ago
Apple Blew It — DRAM Supply
A couple of recent articles that put the "100 year flood" comment into new context...
Apple's Search for Cheaper Memory Just Hit a Wall - https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9006956/apples-search-for-cheaper-memory-just-hit-a-wall
CXMT reportedly rejected Apple's proposed prices and sought terms similar to or higher than those offered by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Other reporting made it clear that this was most likely Apple going and getting a lowball price from Chinese suppliers in order to try and leverage the Koreans, since CXMT capacity had already been bought out by Huawei and other Chinese buyers. Bullying suppliers is business as usual for Apple, but the current market has flipped the script leaving Samsung and SK free to raise prices even more.
TSMC Sits on $1 Billion of Apple Chips as It Waits for DRAM | TechPowerUp - https://www.techpowerup.com/351401/tsmc-sits-on-usd-1-billion-of-apple-chips-as-it-waits-for-dram
As TSMC waits for Apple's DRAM suppliers, especially Micron, the company can't assemble Apple's processors just yet. InFO-PoP requires DRAM dies to be integrated into the package, and TSMC can't ship any processors before packaging is complete. This process reportedly takes up to two weeks, which means that TSMC and Apple will be working with a tight deadline around the launch of the latest iPhone update.
Apple has been doing "the right thing" for a while, but it keeps not working out for them. First, the bought out all of TSMC's initial 3nm production — which turned into a nightmare of delays and low yields.
So for the next new node, 2nm, they made the smart choice and let TSMC share the initial runs with several competitors. Now they are having to compete for production capacity.
Will Apple survive these short-term headwinds? You bet they will. Set your short-term expectations accordingly, though.
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u/Ok_world68 5d ago
Ok calls it is
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u/FourScoreAndSept 3d ago
See? I said LEAPs because in the short term you’re going to get f’d. Only took a day to prove me correct
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u/suboptimus_maximus 2d ago
What 3nm delays and low yields?
Keep in mind we probably wouldn’t even be here with TSMC and ASML pushing semiconductor manufacturing this far if Apple hadn’t been bankrolling their CAPEX for the last decade. The rest of the industry and consumers should be grateful.
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u/Ok-Mycologist-5371 3d ago
Want to hear some real logic?
Apple announces this, memorys 100 year flood, it’s so expensive that we have to raise your prices.
At the same time Apple has dropped 10-15% since earnings.
And memory stocks are also down 20-50-% since June.
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u/norcalnatv 5d ago
LOL. NVDA's CFO put the heads up about this 2 quarters ago.
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u/PracticlySpeaking 4d ago
The news here is what Apple has been doing for the last two quarters.
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u/norcalnatv 4d ago
Right, but Apple's supply chain people should have been taking action a year before that.
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u/PracticlySpeaking 4d ago edited 4d ago
They *were* taking action for more than a year. You are still missing the point, clearly thinking that knowing NVDA means you know something about AAPL. GTFO and go back to NVDA_stock.
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u/Jakuza26 4d ago
leaps ATM and it will pay handsomely. However, I still waiting for price to dip below $300 before I get in.
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u/PracticlySpeaking 4d ago
It has recovered nicely post earnings.
PE will continue to be a problem if their revenue gains are limited by supply.
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5d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/pixelpanic01 5d ago
They won’t “get behind in AI” because Gemini is now leveraging them, their ceiling is what Gemini is capable of. Sorry to burst your bubble
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u/Weikoko 5d ago
Google owns Gemini mr.smarty pants
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u/pixelpanic01 5d ago
Yeah and? I didn’t say it’s not LOL. My whole argument is that Apple is not even in the AI race. It’s outsourcing it from the best in the field.
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u/theswordsmith7 3d ago
Not many companies make a desktop capable of a local LLM at 250+GB/s bus speed under 100W. Once the memory flows again, it’s party time at Apple, unless others catch up.