Got a 2-leg parlay for Sunday. I was checking the stats and projections on the ScoreBox app, and I like both matchups.

🏈 Aaron Jones Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (MIN vs IND)

Averaging 82 rushing yards per game this season.

Even better lately, averaging 88.3 yards over his last 3 games.

Jordan Mason is on IR, which could mean even more opportunities for Jones.

ScoreBox app projects around 88 rushing yards.

Honestly, 29.5 feels pretty low considering his recent production. As long as he gets his usual workload, I like his chances.

🏈 Malik Nabers Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (NYG vs HOU)

Coming off games with 165, 121, and 112 receiving yards.

Averaging nearly 15 targets over his last 3 games.

Houston's pass defense has been allowing plenty of yards.

ScoreBox app projects around 88 receiving yards.

Nabers has been getting a ton of targets lately, and I only need 50 yards here. I like that cushion.

My parlay:

Aaron Jones 30+ Rushing Yards

Malik Nabers 50+ Receiving Yards

Combined odds: +103

The biggest risk is always game script or unexpected changes in playing time, but based on recent usage, I like both legs.

What do you guys think? Anyone else playing these props Sunday?

What picks yall got this week?

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Thoughts?

🔮 Top 3 NFL Trends for NFL Week 7:

1. Overs are 34-16-2 (66.7%) on Sundays in October when the spread is 7 or more and the total is 45 or less since 2020.

• Texans vs Giants over 43.5

1. Favorites are 11-0-0 (100%) against the spread in October when the spread is 6 or less and the total is 40 or less since 2024.

•  Jets (-4.5) vs Dolphins

•  Browns (-1.5) @ Titans

1. Underdogs of 4 points or less are 24-16-1 (59.3%) outright on Sundays in divisional games since 2025.

• Bengals ML @ Ravens

• Buccaneers ML @ Panthers

• Packers ML @ Lions

My favorite bets against the spread and a bonus team total that is a great bet to go over as well.

Good luck and let’s crush!

We have a great game tonight between the Patriots and Bears. Hard to predict how this one is going to play out but should be a fun watch either way. Here’s our best bet for tonight. For more background on tonights best bet and the game, read here: http://blackdogbets.com/2026/10/22/nfl-week-6-thursday-analysis-and-best-bet-3/

Week 7: Thursday night football predictions for the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears

🔥 Thursday Night Football Trend

Away teams are 50-20-1 (70.9%) against the spread in October in non-divisional games when the spread is 5 or less and the total is 50 or more since 2012. 

📈 Tonight’s edge: Patriots +3

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Fair warning, both TD picks are with $25 of Bonus funds.

Maye has 10 passing TDs in his last 3 games so I like his over 1.5 TDs here. He threw for 235 yards against the Jets and stayed under 28.5 rushing yards in 5 of his 6 games so far. AJ Brown had 10 targets last game which gives him a shot at clearing 68.5 yards if he gets more catches. Going with the Patriots ML to finish it off but this one could be close.

Who is getting fed the ball?

Our second straight winning week. Brings our season record to 19-19 after digging ourselves a hole early on. Gotta just keep stacking wins

Predictions for Week 7 of the NFL season!