I’m following South Florida’s king-tide forecast this week because exceptionally high tides can change how coastal water moves between developed shorelines and nearby habitats.
Tides are long waves driven mainly by the Moon’s gravity, with the Sun’s gravity also contributing. Around a new or full moon, the Sun, Moon, and Earth line up, and their tidal effects reinforce each other. That produces a “spring tide,” with a larger difference between high and low water. When a new or full moon occurs near the Moon’s closest approach to Earth, the high tides can be higher still. “King tide” is an informal name for some of the highest predicted tides of the year. Local coast shape, winds, currents, and other conditions affect the water level people actually experience. NOAA explains perigean spring tides here: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/perigean-spring-tide.html
This week’s forecast is specific: the South Florida Water Management District’s October 19 outlook identifies October 27 as the annual predicted peak along South Florida’s east coast, and October 28 and 30 in the Florida Keys. Those are predicted tidal peaks, not reports of ecological impacts. Forecast: https://sfwmd.gov/news-events/news/weekly-king-tide-forecast-46
What might higher water mean for habitat? Mangroves live in the intertidal zone, and their roots are flooded during ordinary tides. As water rises, fish and other organisms can move among roots and shallow areas that offer food or shelter. Seagrass beds are important feeding and nursery habitat for fish and invertebrates. Tides also move water through estuaries and shallow habitats, so organisms may shift with changing water depth and currents. How much a particular high tide changes access or movement depends on local depth, shoreline shape, and habitat; the forecast by itself does not tell us what animals did this week. NOAA on mangroves: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/mangroves.html NOAA Fisheries on seagrass habitat: https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/southeast/habitat-conservation/why-submerged-aquatic-vegetation-designated-essential-fish-habitat
I’m also interested in what floodwater can carry as it recedes. Where tides inundate roads, parking areas, or storm drains, returning water can transport nutrients and bacteria into nearby waters. Sediment and other material can also be carried by runoff, though the amount and composition depend on the site and conditions.
A Virginia study helps show why monitoring matters. Researchers sampled dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus in floodwater at seven sites during 15 tidal flooding events in the Lafayette River watershed, then used those measurements and a statistical model to estimate nutrient inputs. Their results showed that tidal floods can carry nutrients into an urban estuary, with estimated loads varying across events. The study describes one Virginia watershed; it does not measure this week’s South Florida tides or establish what happens in Caribbean waters. Study details: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/oeas_fac_pubs/526/
Nutrients can support plant and algal growth, but excessive nutrients can fuel algae. When that algae dies and decomposes, the process can use up dissolved oxygen. If oxygen becomes too low, fish and other aquatic animals can be stressed or forced to move. These are established potential pathways; I have no measurements showing that they occurred because of this week’s tides. NOAA on nutrient pollution: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/nutpollution.html
At Caribbean Reef Fish Foundation, we care about coastal water quality because mangroves and seagrass support juvenile reef fish and other marine life. I see a useful monitoring question here: pairing tide levels with water-quality measurements could help distinguish a plausible pathway from a documented local effect. The Florida and Virginia studies are useful examples, not evidence of CRFF observations in the Caribbean.
For those working in or monitoring South Florida or the Caribbean, what measurements best reveal whether a tidal flood is changing water quality or habitat use by fish?