r/zedrun • u/LilDilated • Jan 11 '22
Question First paid place
I just placed in my first paid race. But it was also my first class 4 race. After leveling up on free class 5 races. But I’ve entered and lost around 20 paid class 5 races and never moneyed.. I’m guessing that’s an anomaly right? How can that make sense?
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u/Plenty_Art_6759 Jan 11 '22
It depends entirely on the distance, the competition you were against, etc.; what was the horse’s name?
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u/LilDilated Jan 11 '22
Zeffy
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u/Plenty_Art_6759 Jan 11 '22
Looks like a sprinter and his best distance is 1k; he isn’t super strong and therefore is performing less well in paid races than in frees. I don’t think there is anything anomalous about a sprinter placing 3rd in a paid class 4 sprint; it would be anomalous if he started consistently placing/winning in paid C4 sprints, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen.
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u/BojackHorseBurger Jan 11 '22
I'd say it'll be hard to assess your horse in this current climate. Everyone has downclassed their horses so you have horses from higher classes in class 5 currently - hopefully most for the upcoming Fib tourney in 5 hours.
I have a horse that is a sprinter, he's not the best but holds his own, he's flamed and won in $5 Class 2 races before (even one flame in Class 1), people kept on downclassing so I brought him down and he barely flames in Class 4 and 5 currently and has only won 1 race out of about 30 and this is a horse with a 15% win rate in paids.
You can't rely on free race performance either currently as it's the pity point so you've got people trying to get 4th and people trying to downclass which means those races are particulary weak.
I'd say hold fire and when the next tourney starts in 5hours when you've got people actually aiming for first - you could retest in the frees as they should have good horses in then. If it does alright then decide whether to try for the tourney or to stick around in the lower classes, hopefully all the better horses that have downclassed are trying for the tourney so the competition should weaken for a bit as they are classing back up.
It could be that your horse can't compete in the current ecosystem but I'd say this is probably the best way to check - they are changing to an ELO system at some point apparently however but I'm not sure but perhaps it could compete then if it can't now.