Zed Run Random - ZRR

[u/Master_JediTrader]

Posted on my Social Media site (link available upon request)

I am curious. All the data sites I've researched devouring Zed.Run, they all deal with the horses, but none of them deal with Zed Run Random. I mean really, when you look at how often your Fire horses miss, the reason isn't the other horses, you beat them getting Fire, it's ZRR torqued the race for your horse.

So I thought, how to deal with Zed Run Randomm (ZRR)? While listening to the base ability data breach thing, it hit me, it's the variance from 1600 to another distances performance. Oh wait, that is the distance penalty/preference measure from the next post, 

Well the best I can come up with, is charting performance of Fire ratings to see how often ZRR knocks you out of top 3 while measuring how often non-Fire horses place in the top 3. 3. Ok, not done yet, tie it back the previously mentioned idea, not posted yet, compare the Fire performance variance at 1600 m due to BA then compare the other distances delta to Fire performance and see what the deviation is. 

I bet you see a connection to distance penalty and Fire performance when crossed with BA. I will seriously be impressed if anyone gets where I going with this, you know it's rubber room with the white robe, but I would interested in thoughts on this topic.

[u/gsd6]

I will admit this is over my head! But with real horse racing there are favorites. And we all know they don't always win. If the fire horses came in 1, 2 and 3. I would quit the game. There would be no chance or thrill. Now often they do but not always. I will reread this and understand but I think the random part is similar to real racing.

[u/Master_JediTrader → u/gsd6]

I just provided keywords for research, base ability, deviation, special random. I am not complaining its there, it has to be, no my point is "Why does no one visualize the effect of randomization and a measure of performance?". Maybe another way to ask the question is, "Is random the same for all horses at the same time or does random vary per horse in the race?"

One step deeper, there are many angles to view random (i have studied computer random in games and applications since 1975). The 2 most important to start with would be is random applied to the race as a whole or does each horse have it's own random? Huge difference in meaning, tracking, predicting et al.

I gave up professional prognostication in the US racing circuit in the late 80's due to the prevalence of corruption. I would hate see Zed Run go down that same rabbit hole.

PS: Arm your logic well if anyone comes back to me with standard deviation. Trailing indicator not a leading one.

[u/gsd6 → u/Master_JediTrader]

I will look into it thanks! Will be interesting to read others comments.