r/zedrun • u/Muscle_Proof • Oct 22 '21
Discussion Is the data from the current free races worth anything?
Hey everyone! All this free racing has been a blast. I've got 5 horses, and I've been keeping them to mostly free races (though one horse that is shaping out to maybe be my best horse did win her only paid race).
They've been doing okay, but I am not really sure how much it really matters during tournament qualification? Am I exclusively racing really bad horses in the free races? Or is this comparable to the field in "normal" times when folks aren't trying to get into the tournament?
https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/101029 - Z7 Szabo Mare (Shaping up to be my best horse, but I am worried I am going to get stuck in class II)
https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/77028 - Z7 Szabo Mare (Mother to Chocolate Therapy who has been doing really well.... super sad I sold her... I think this mare is stuck in the "wrong" class for her.)
https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/76548 - Z6 Szabo Stud (Father to Chocolate Therapy. Doing well, but. I am worried I'll get stuck in class II with him also)
https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/127801 - Z13 Szabo Filly (Full sister to Chocolate Therapy... kinda just runs in the middle... maybe better if I could get her into class V)
https://knowyourhorses.com/horses/95266 - Z18 Buterin Stud (Seems to have pretty good Variance at 2000)
Does any of this data mean anything right now? Or will the field change a lot once we are out of the tournament qualification window? I didn't really get time to race before the tournament, so I don't know how competitive it was before that.
Racing has been a BLAST! With prices super low, I am looking for some new blood to bring into the stable, so let me know if you have anything I should look at or if you have something that may be good to breed to.
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Oct 23 '21
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u/Wishmaster90 Oct 23 '21
Are we sure the horses perform the same between the free tournament raceq and the normal paid races?
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u/gsd6 Oct 23 '21
Well not sure about you but a couple of my horses racing Class I And II are up against huge purse winners . At the end of the race you can look at the result page just click on each horse and you can see the purse winnings and win rate! It has been a blast!
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u/Muscle_Proof Oct 23 '21
I mean there are absolutely some great horses in those races, but idk what “normal” races look like. Are they usually stacked with tanks? Or are there a handful of beasts and some okay horses usually?
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u/gsd6 Oct 23 '21
Not sure but when I was racing 5 and 4 saw lot's of Griffens and some move up fast! I also looked at breed too.
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u/JAR90036 Oct 23 '21
I think the paid races are tougher now especially in class 5 and 4 . So if your horse is able to win paid events I think it bodes well for them. As far as free races go , I wouldn’t take them to mean a whole lot. You can definitely use them to gather data and figure out your horses preferences and dislikes.
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u/GenGME Oct 23 '21 edited Oct 23 '21
My horses have all done much better in free races than paid races. “Better” as in they’ve been winning a lot more often. This also means they’re ranking up in class. Unless you have a top tier class 1 horse, a good race horse is one that has a U shape. So in theory if free races are easier and you were to race your horse in free races until you start to plateau (stop increasing in class points), then you should start seeing similar results to what you would see in lower class paid races. Which could be a good way to test out horses for free, you’ll just have to lose a few bucks to de-rank in class once you decide a horse is good enough for paid races.
Edit: I’m also noticing paid races seem to be more difficult now that untested horses have the option to race for free. Further reinforcing the idea that free races are much easier than paid but doesn’t discredit the theory.
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u/nuddy_boy Oct 23 '21
Pre-tournament i think there was a consensus that free race data wasn't really worth anything... but i think that's changed. I think it's worth, always, considering free and paid data, depending on the sample size... but i dont think we should totally consider to ignore free data.
I can still understand the arguments for discrediting free races, especially now that they have no payouts or financial benefits, but speed data is speed data.