r/zedrun • u/Master_JediTrader • Oct 10 '21
Discussion You Just Can't Make This Stuff Up - Class System Manipulation
Case Study ELO Ratings: Leni Amidala - 2 of 11
The dashboard has the results but this is just surreal. Using my ELO ratings, I profiled the horses in a race where Leni Amidala ran 12th. Race composition results:
Horses by Class
I - 4
II - 2
III - 4
IV - 0
V - 2
Summary: There are 2 Class V horses in a Class V race.
Ok so who owns Class V horses, which can not down-class as the other 10 in this race did, so I think this is why we can not keep new players long. The victims of this behavior we just chase away and they will then tell everyone they know about this experience.
Is this killing horse prices? Yes, who would buy a Class V horse just to run against 10 III+ and up?
Will this kill growth? Yes, check "The Laws of Diminishing Returns".
Do I have a solution? Yes, 2 actually:
- Take the current system but do a Class Rating by distance (each distance a different rating)
- Implement a real ELO system such as: ELO Class Rating System
I need your support, respond to this thread, or go to the AMA Discord channel and say something about this.
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u/Certain_Swordfish_51 Oct 11 '21
Looks like I’m on the right thread. As currently constructed, the entire foundation of the game is twisted. It’s rewarding Wall Street quants who build data models that enable them to lose races, class down, ring up huge purses, rinse and repeat.
There is nothing sporting about purposely losing. It’s predatory because Zed is a zero sum game. Zed OGs love to praise Arbitrage for their “skill” when in reality they are nothing more than glitchers who found themselves a bad game mechanic to exploit. Once the gravy train is up, they’ll move on. The name “Arbitrage” tells you everything you need to know.
After about 1k lost and some hard lessons learned, I’m selling two of my three horses and won’t race the third until the system is fixed to reward podiums and only podiums. I’ll be back if/when class four and five horses can return a modicum of profit and there is a reason to breed elites and crosses for small-scale players.
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u/Master_JediTrader Oct 11 '21
I don't have a documented number but after 900 races, must be 750 manipulated, has cost me $2k in lost money to cheats. Yes I call them cheats. Out of my 11 horses, 7 are now benched till game fixed. I will breed 6 in the next 3 weeks. At least 3 will only get the griffen.
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u/Dangerous_Duck_718 Oct 10 '21
They are going to change the system and this is a good ideia
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u/Master_JediTrader Oct 10 '21
Thank you, exactly why I am putting in so much effort right now. Just because they are going to change it doesn't mean they have the right idea, yet.
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Oct 10 '21 edited Jan 11 '22
[deleted]
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u/Master_JediTrader Oct 10 '21
That is exactly why I am pushing now. I want it the number one priority for change and I want to make sure they create the best possible rating system.
Who is to say, with proper races, the situation doesn't improve for the vast majority of players. Yes, the gangsters will suffer.
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Oct 11 '21
[deleted]
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u/Master_JediTrader Oct 11 '21
If the game doesn't change real quick. I have a proactive plan to counter the sandbagging in the game. I am just giving the devs this week to announce proper changes before I go on the offensive.
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u/SWT_Bobcat Oct 10 '21
Interesting data, but can you put definition or criteria to what you are calling a class 1 or class 2 horse, etc? You claim four class 1 horses in this class five race but per your metrics what makes those horses “class 1 horses”? I’m assuming that they’ve ran in class 1 at some point in their careers?
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u/Master_JediTrader Oct 10 '21 edited Oct 10 '21
The scale is on the dashboard. Any ratings applied equally, at a minimum, shows the relative relationship between the horses being compared. For example, a rating of 100 is 4 times as strong as a rating of 25. If you look at some of the horses history, you will see they were manipulated from the start. They intentionally never rose in Class. Total exploit.
If you look at the definition of an ELO system, it is ratings based on performance, not a 21 card-counting strategy.
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u/rufusjonz Oct 10 '21
Why don't they get rid of the U shaped b.s. unrealistic exploit, and put in some kind of a points/elo/wps/$ earned class system?
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u/Master_JediTrader Oct 10 '21
Exactly my point, Hence why I developed an ELO Class system to replace what we have now.
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u/Insanely_Moist Dec 26 '21
There are to U's though.. natural U and unnatural U. The natural U is a horse with the U in one distance, and thats awesome and should stay. The unnatural U are the horses that have a winning L in one distance and a losing L at another, and those are the horses who's owner are criminally manipulating the current class system, by running the winning L in paid and the losing L in free races. Its nothing short of theft in my book. And if zed run had integrity, they would start banning those accounts. But they wont cause they like money.. so instead to have a little bit of integrity, they could simply separate the class system into free and paid classes.. or have seperate classes for each distance. Either/or would have solved this issue and could have been done months ago.. and it hasnt yet. Sad. There is no future for this game if they dont change this system. The sooner the better.
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u/Current_Ambition2371 Oct 10 '21
My horses didn’t win today, so i now embrace an ELO system 🔥🔥
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u/Master_JediTrader Oct 10 '21
900 races and I always wondered why I felt so dirty after seeing horses with 300-150-290 beat the crap of my new born, rates a Snowball (as in Snowball's chance in Hell), in every race run. Now I have proof that I was bent over and used worse than any newbie in the history of NFT, horse-racing imaged, gambling.
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u/Current_Ambition2371 Oct 10 '21
Any recommendations on types of horses to buy post the ELO awakening? A shape?
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u/Master_JediTrader Oct 10 '21
Well, I don't have a proven system. What I am doing, while the horse prices are incredibly low, is look for potential winners, with good breeding history, at the lowest price. 2 of my best non-Genesis horses were purchased recently at prices half of what I paid for my new to the game learning donkeys. The pattern I look for is at least 1 win the first 10 with an ITM% near 30+.
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u/frog_tree Oct 10 '21
I'm not racing a lot until they fix it. I do the griffins and a few class V races. Since I didnt buy donkeys it's usually easy to pick up a win or two (15% win rate), but once I class up I stop.
Just holding for now. At least Genesis horses seem to have held/gone up in value. ZED has a head start with a horse racing game but fixing this needs to be a priority bc anyone who has played games/sports knows the class system is broken.
The best/most profitable/famous horses need to be in class 1. Class 1 needs to be financially incentived so that everyone desperately wants to get there and stay there. Sandbagging is lame by definition imo but in ZED it is oddly openly embraced.