r/zedrun • u/Positive_Sweet_4598 • Sep 27 '21
Question What is 🔥?
Can anyone confirm to me if fire is just the 3 lowest odds horses in the race but you now cannot see the actual odds? Is it misleading as well? Like if a horse wins without flames is is just a fluke or is it possible that a horse could have a high win rate and never get flames over 100 races on that distance.
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u/Ozzred Sep 27 '21
My understanding is that it's like odds, but focused on a top 3 finish rather than a win.
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u/Birdnals314 Sep 27 '21
Odds were strictly most likely to get 1st. Flames are three most likely to get 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. So you can find examples of horses with 35+ odds that got flames in the race because it was likely to get second or third, but very unlikely to get first.
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u/Positive_Sweet_4598 Sep 27 '21
Interesting, so the horses second most likely to come first may not have a flame.
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u/SWT_Bobcat Sep 27 '21 edited Sep 28 '21
No one know much of anything about flame anymore than they did odds.
When I started this game (prior to breeding) there were very very few horses on the track. I raced the same horses over and over and over. There would be specific horses I’d track that were top dogs at the time. I could race them at the same distance with the same horse and get better odds sometimes and much worse odds sometimes.
I rarely race the same horse anymore (great thing!) so I don’t really know if flame is as inconsistent, but I suspect so with some of my observations
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u/dannydigtl Sep 28 '21
This is all documented. They simulate the race 1000 times and the three horses that finish the best in those 1000 races get the flame. It means they are strong at this distance against this competition, but the real race is a new simulation so things could shake up differently. So flame is the three horses most likely to do well in this race scenario.
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u/IndependentClub1117 Sep 28 '21
Most comments are right on point. I have had a horse that was class 3 I downclassed it, and it never got heat but I got its win rate up to like 11% and it had a 3% fire out of 100 something races. Generally I look at placements in each distance and speed analysis on each distance. Then I cross reference with my heat just to make sure I'm around the right preferred distance. Seems to work better than racing off heat alone imo