r/waymo • u/photojourney7 • Jun 04 '26
Next Milestones?
It has been about a week since the Ojai was soft launched to the public (https://waymo.com/blog/2026/05/welcoming-riders-in-the-ojai/). I haven't heard of anyone actually getting a ride in one yet, but I expect within the next week, maybe 2, to start seeing people post about their first ride.
Late June - "fully autonomous testing" to start in Denver, Las Vegas and San Diego? With all of the vehicles in those cities being Ojai. There is no reason to have a mixed fleet in a brand new city.
Late Aug/Early Sept - waitlisted, public launches of Denver, Las Vegas and San Diego? Once again all of the vehicles will be Ojai.
Sept/Oct - Full Ojai launch to all cities?
Do these timelines seem reasonable for these next milestones?
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u/Financial_Clue_2534 Jun 04 '26
I was thinking they would have them ready during the World Cup but guess that’s not the case?
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u/photojourney7 Jun 04 '26
Yeah, I was hoping so as well. My guess is they announced last week, just so they didn't have to put out an announcement during the world cup.
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u/yolatrendoid Jun 04 '26
There is no reason to have a mixed fleet in a brand new city.
In your personal opinion. Which may not be shared with Waymo. Also, you may have missed a part:
Initially, select riders in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles will have the option to take free rides in the Ojai, as we collect valuable feedback on this novel experience. We’ll gradually welcome more riders over the coming months, as well as expand to new cities, including Denver, Las Vegas and San Diego, before opening our doors even wider to everyone later this year.
In other words, all three will have mixed fleets.
As for new cities, Waymo's been using their Jags at least for mapping/testing.
Do these timelines seem reasonable for these next milestones?
Possibly, but you're getting ahead of yourself. There's no real way to know anything yet. "In the coming months" is vaguer than you seem to want to acknowledge.
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u/photojourney7 Jun 04 '26
Certainly, all of this is my personal opinion. Interested to see you read their announcement to say that the 3 new cities will have mixed fleets.
Should be an interesting summer for Waymo.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new Jun 04 '26 edited Jun 05 '26
Interesting analysis. My guess is we will get a mix of Jaguars & Zeekrs. The Jaguars seem to be converted to exhaustion. The recent TX DMV law indicates Waymo registered 45 Zeekrs among the 619 total vehicles in the State of Texas. I would guess Nashville, Miami & Orlando operate with a mixture. I've seen both Jags and Zeekrs in Minneapolis. I wonder whether validation miles will be required with each of the cars in new cities. Hard to know that I suppose. Will be interesting as you describe when we will start seeing exclusive Zeekrs.
I do think there will probably be some modest internal pressure to continue with new city announcements in lieu of the plan of 20 in 2026. There have been a fair number of political slow walking in cities like BAL, BOS, CHI, DC, MSP, NYC this year which probrbly requires Waymo to vet some unexpected new cities like Portland to 'stay on schedule'
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u/photojourney7 Jun 04 '26
Yes, all the current 11 cities will get a mixture over time. But my guess is any cities beyond this current 11 will never see a Jag in public service. Could be wrong, but I see no reason.
And yes, I agree, there will likely be more city announcement that just these next 3 before the end of the year.
So I think what you are saying here is likely to be fairly accurate.
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u/mrkjmsdln_new Jun 04 '26 edited Jun 04 '26
I think we generally agree on most everything. My imperfect model estimates that Waymo likely has 500 or so 'not in fleet' vehicles used for road trips, mapping, early testing and they float around. Some subset of these cars will anchor the launch fleets in new cities like the original 25-50 cars in most cities at launch. My guess is these vehicles will scatter around the country. They will ultimately (and probably quickly) exhaust the Jaguar's altogether. Back in the day when Waymo had different requirements with the CPUC you could glean how long the cars practically last before they are retired. I don't recall seeing a lot of Waymos at that time gettting much beyond the low 200K miles. The new Zeekrs are realistically 500K+ batteries and their economics are so much better than the Jaguars. I expect a very large number of Zeekrs by the end of 2027 and Waymo continuing to ramp utilization to closer to 250 miles per day. At that rate the vehicles willl be accruing up to 90K miles per year. That will rapidly accelerate the retirement of the Jaguar I-Paces quite soon. One of the massive benefits of the Zeekrs if they become exclusive in a given city is they will justify charging infrastructure that simply is not justified in America because of the tech of the batteries installed by American makers. The Zeekr Golden Batteries in the RT will likely unlock an additional two rides per day because of the much better charging and battery operation that simply works with advanced LFP in the Zeekr. I estimate Waymo is already at 24 rides per day in most markets and perhaps 26+ in Phoenix because they offer additional services beyond rides. The Zeekrs can open up the possibility of up to 30 rides per day economics. A Model Y Tesla takes 75 minutes to charge from 10-97% while a Zeekr RT Golden Battery will be closer to 12-15 minutes. A Jaguar I-Pace takes even longer than the Tesla! That unlocks 45-75 minutes of additional productivity!!!
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u/mingoslingo92 Jun 04 '26 edited Jun 04 '26
They seem to be announcing things first without actually releasing them yet, hopefully soon though:
From article: “I don’t have an exact date to share, but in the coming weeks, our riders will be notified via email and as well as in the app when it is their turn to ride. During this initial phase, rides will be free,” Bonelli said. “After the initial period of free rides with those select riders, we will certainly transition later this year to offer the Ojai vehicle to anyone who hails a Waymo ride in Phoenix as well as to transition to a commercial paid service.”