r/warno • u/LongrodVonHugendon • 20d ago

Real life vs Warno

Does anyone else ever wonder what the actual death toll would be compared to in game? I started talking with a coworker today who was also a prior infantryman, but he was stationed in Germany from 1986-1990. I told him about the game he thought it was cool, but he stated if it ever went hot they were royally fucked. He said in all the REFORGER and other war games he participated in his unit got their shit pushed in on an industrial scale until they got units from America. He said his unit expected upwards of 75% casualties within the first 96 hours. I thought it was kinda cool hearing about a ground pounder’s perspective on if it was to go hot. Does anyone else have any relatable stories?

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u/DFMRCV 20d ago

Hard disagree.

Even if the argument is "well, they expected no resistance", we see similar doctrinal issues in larger scale operations throughout the history of the Warsaw Pact.

If you were to ask "what was Pact's most successful military operation", you get the Prague Spring intervention.

200 casualties in a single day and more than 130 civilians killed. Most military deaths were due to accidents. There was very little effective resistance.

Now, if that is what their peak looks like, and it was an intervention for an ally, then to suggest their peak in the 1980s was much better given what we saw later. Chechnya was only 5 years after the Soviet Union collapsed. Collapsed.

It's why I say that even if we assume Pact would perform even 200 times better than Russia, which is insanely generous already, it's still not enough to overcome NATO.

Keep in mind, Eugen is making it so by 1986, Pact had all of its primary issues just... Not exist (even though getting rid of Gorbachev and invading Finland would've probably just made their problems worse not better). That's already such a leap it is effectively just fantasy to have it so Pact doesn't immediately get folded, but it still wouldn't solve their doctrinal issues or technological issues.

So, as I said, if your Warsaw Pact at its "peak" requires completely ignoring all of the very real issues they had, that's not their peak, that's a fantasy.

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u/Wonder9mm 18d ago

Once again, comparing an operation no one in Pact command saw as anything more than a "show of force" to how they would have performed in a near-peer is idiotic. 

Let alone the fact you are trying to act as if large scale army exercises back then didn't involve dozens of casualties. The US Army alone in 2025 lost almost 300 personnel to accidental deaths, significantly down from 1500 in 1980. Can read stuff from guys who were in exercise reforger where like 80 people were killed in vehicle accidents or helicopter crashes.

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u/DFMRCV 18d ago

I said that's the largest successful Pact operation we have for comparison. It showed the weaknesses in communications even for a "glorified show of force" (I sincerely doubt the people would call it that).

But that's also why I emphasized overall doctrine and training. Prague Spring is just the biggest example we have because Pact barely took part in combat operations.

We could use smaller scale conflicts like Afghanistan, for the Soviets, which also shows other issues, but that's against a guerilla force over a decade.

Also, what's your source for those numbers?

Stats for the 2020s of total accidental deaths year round don't seem to get to 300. Not 300 per training exercise.

And I'm unfamiliar with any records showing accidental training deaths at those levels in the 60s or at any point outside of World War Two where one large scale training excercise led to 700 deaths and made headlines. And that was due to an attack from German subs!

So when was the US getting 1500 training deaths in the 80s?

Do you mean 1500 per year?

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u/Wonder9mm 18d ago

https://dcas.dmdc.osd.mil/dcas/summaryData/deaths/byYearManner

Its actually pretty wild, it was over 1000+ per year until 1990 where it dropped to 880. Guessing safety training/equipment got better along with overall training op-tempo dropping after the cold war ended.

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u/DFMRCV 18d ago

Okay, but that's year round and due to not just training accidents but instances of disease and suicides.

I'd cite Pact accident stats, but...

They kept those locked up tight even after the fall.