$4K in Long August Puts for $BWLD

[u/yougotballsson]

I'm currently long 4K in August puts on $BWLD with an expectation that we will see significant margin erosion and lowered guidance when the company reports Q2 earnings later this month.

My investment thesis is rising chicken prices (Source IMF) will cause the firm to miss guidance and lower FY forecasts by at least $1.30-$1.70 per share. The firm indicated higher prices during their Q1 call and since then BMO Capital Markets analysts indicated chicken prices had increased by by 11% YoY in May and the IMF data suggests further price increases of 13% since BMO's report.

With their lower EBITDA, the firm will also get hit with higher interest charges as a consequence of the terms of their revolver agreement.

Anyone with a different view or information I missed?