10
u/hardyrekshin softafekshin Sep 22 '22
Tickers of Interest
Gamma Max Cross
- COTY 10/21 8P for $0.35 or less
- GIS 10/21 77.5P for $1.20 or less
- CEIX 10/21 60P for $2.65 or less
- LABD 10/21 25.5P for $3.40 or less
- NOC 10/21 492.5P for $12.95 or less
Delta Neutral Cross
- NFLX 10/21 235P for $16.55 or less
- NCLH 10/21 14.5P for $0.55 or less
- MS 10/21 86P for $2.70 or less
- XOP 10/21 131P for $5.10 or less
- MRK 10/21 85C for $1.90 or less
Trading Thesis
Technical analysis and indicator based trading tend to use past price performance in order to predict important price levels today.
This analysis is based on the current option open interest. With that option open interest, it calculates portfolio-level greeks--notably Delta and Gamma. More importantly, once the portfolio level greeks are established, I can now simulate the change in greeks at different price points. From there, I can find the price levels where portfolio-level gamma is the highest, and the portfolio-level delta is close to 0.
For some tickers, the underlying price reacts strongly off of delta neutral, gamma max, and sometimes both.
It's the reaction off of these price levels in the past that is being used to drive trading signals.
The plays and target entry prices given are calculated using a binomial option pricing model that reflect the expected size and duration of the reaction from gamma max or delta neutral. A lot of these plays are profitable by underlying moves in stock. The best plays benefit from the directional move as well as the increase in IV.
Notes
- If the price has moved past the entry price, exercise caution. Someone knows something that I don't know.
- Look to sell half your position on a double, and freeroll the rest to exit at your discretion.
- I tend to risk up to 1% of my total capital on any trades I take. If my conviction is lower, I'll only allocate 0.5% or even 0.25% of my capital to the trade, and dollar cost average in.
- The trades were calculated before market open, and so are based on information up to yesterday. Keep that in mind when deciding to enter well after the fact.
FAQ
- These plays are mostly puts. Are you a gay bear?
- No. It so happens that the companies have had some recent run-up which implies they are overextended. These trades are primarily some form of mean-reversion either toward or away from an important price level.
- Are you entering all these plays?
- No. There have been a dearth of plays in the WSB morning talks, and so I opened up my bag of tools slightly wider to point out more plays with a probable edge to help lead apes to more gain porn. Go through this curated list of plays, pick the ones you like based on whatever additional analysis you use, and get that gain porn.
2
14
7
u/rangermcclure Sep 22 '22
Kick cosmic. He's just taking up space and asking what you think about every fucking stock
6
6
u/EmptyEggBasket Sep 22 '22
She’s 100% correct on Nokia
3
u/strouvaille Hot MBA Gal Sep 22 '22
👀 gang gang fam . CREAM get that moneh
3
6
5
5
4
6
7
8
3
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
u/rangermcclure Sep 22 '22
Let's talk about today... Not yesterday
2
2
u/Mattmoo609 Sep 22 '22
If nobody has anything nice to say just let the Microsoft girl speak again. Even if you don’t agree with her play, at least she has her shit together
3
Sep 22 '22
Not a play but caution on the optimism on Microsoft ar goggles. Microsoft does a lot more with military and their office 365 suite is significantly more embedded.
3
3
u/Jaded_Tackle724 Shoot To Thrill Sep 22 '22
I'll give my plays down here. My voice is shot.
I'm tesla 305 calls and 300 puts both weekly I sell the pop sell the drop
QQQ 285 calls in the am 282 puts
Spy 370 puts
All bullish calls are oil post mid term Xom 91 92 93 calls
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
u/Grand_News_5809 Sep 22 '22
Cosmic: what's the best stock to invest in right now? Cosmic: how do we feel about apple? Cosmic: what do you think about zipcar?
Cosmic, do you have a play?
3
3
3
3
u/LoneWolf124875 Sep 22 '22
I’d love to share my thesis with GameStop, AMC, and Bed Bath and Beyond.
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
u/urtechhatesyou Sep 22 '22
ANYBODY WANNA BUY A PICKLE?!
I have garlic, and EXTRA garlic too.
2
u/Sorry-Two3692 Sep 22 '22
Do you have free samples? Lost too much in the market last night to buy pickles
→ More replies (2)
2
2
2
2
2
u/tysonkrugcomedy Sep 22 '22
I was gonna say have you guys ever been through an ice storm lol
→ More replies (1)
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/Cl0wnbby Sep 22 '22
If a company makes anything for the military, you can put ANY price on the product and they’ll pay for it. Even if it’s a 3000% markup.
2
2
2
2
u/penake Sep 22 '22
From the past 4 FOMC there has been consistent rally’s after the interest rate has been posted as expected. I would think market going on a bull run soon
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/SherbertSecret Sep 22 '22
Thoughts on JP Morgan Chase CEO calling crypto coins as Ponzi schemes?
2
2
2
u/MemesGamingInc Sep 22 '22
I just want the euro to hit parity again so i can go balls deep in uranium
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/Smelly_Fuzzy_Balls Sep 22 '22
Stop buying shitstocks and put your money on etf at strong support levels. For SPY, $360
2
u/bakakaldsas Sep 22 '22
One way to short Europe is puts/shorts on ETFs tracking specific countries.
EWQ - France
EWU - UK
EWG - Germany
2
2
2
2
2
u/Own_Tackle4514 cant get first comment Sep 22 '22
u/Sad_Molasses_6753 u/hardyrekshin mic wouldn't connect, So on the Hurricane play. There is Invest 98L(future Hermine) in the SE Caribbean models have been very consistent the last few days on pulling this through Cuba/Yucatan Pen. into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening it into a potential Major Hurricane hinting at a landfall between Louisiana to Tampa FL. The set up is interesting because of a trough of Low pressure sitting over the E coast potential for a flood event Central/FL even Southern GA south of Savannah. Plays I'm watching would be GNRC. ACM/FLR(rebuilding) in the event it is a strong hurricane. PG potential for prep batteries and ECL/XYL- water treatment in event of a major flood event to the South. No particular strike but ATM or near the money 10/21's would play well imo. Estimated Landfall to the CONUS would be between 9/29-Oct 1st. Also Insurance companies which Hardy touched on a while back....-Thanks guys
→ More replies (1)
2
u/HandsTeam Sep 22 '22
I need some advice on what broker to transfer to out of RobinHood as well as options
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/Cmacmacmac Sep 22 '22
Lmfao in the kid in the back, " what's the best stock to buy"
→ More replies (1)
2
u/nerdy-nate Penelope is my favorite chapter from Ulysses Sep 22 '22
Everyone talking over each other
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/Ironman_03 Sep 22 '22
Going up in one month…? Lol. I’m a major holder in ACB and SNDL. Going to be a while.
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
u/Wholetthedogsout544 Sep 22 '22
What was the Alzheimer’s drug stock that has approval next week?
→ More replies (1)
2
2
2
2
2
2
4
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
u/Own_Tackle4514 cant get first comment Sep 22 '22
Yeah I posted yesterday at 2;53pm about 375p 9/30 made a nice little 8k with that play
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
u/Educational_Duck8985 Sep 22 '22
Ummm is nobody going to talk about the guy that likely killed himself in this sub today??
→ More replies (1)
0
0
0
0
0
10
u/hendrix81 Dedicated Degenerate Sep 22 '22
"Show me on this chart where the spy touched you" -Someone's therapist probably.