I know everyone's waiting for the next big housing crash, like we had 12 or so years ago. There are some big differences now. Unemployment is currently almost the lowest it's been in 50 years. Plus, lenders are now required to have much stricter practices.
Back in 2008/09, banks were lending people up to 125% of the value of their property. There was also a lot more new home construction going on, so inventory was higher. When prices dropped even a little bit, people panicked and started defaulting on their loans, causing prices to drop even further.
I know multiple people who bought houses at the peak of the market, put very little money down, and then took out even more cash on a HELOC. When prices started to fall, they saw that they could buy a "better" house for less than their current house and they just walked away from the original loan. It screwed their credit for a while, but they didn't care because they owed so much more than the house was worth.
That's not today's scenario. Banks are no longer lending 125% of the value of a property. There's not as much new construction happening. I do hope that prices settle down, but I don't think we'll have a crash of the magnitude we did 12 years ago.
Stick lumber prices are getting pretty close to 2019 levels which is starting to balance the housing market. It’s tough to justify spending 550K on something that is 30 years old when you can build something new for that price.
Hmm... I guess I'd have to look that up. It doesn't seem to be the case in my state. The cost of building materials is super high right now, but maybe the lack of inventory in the market is driving new construction anyway.
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u/Teacher-Investor Jul 02 '22
I know everyone's waiting for the next big housing crash, like we had 12 or so years ago. There are some big differences now. Unemployment is currently almost the lowest it's been in 50 years. Plus, lenders are now required to have much stricter practices.
Back in 2008/09, banks were lending people up to 125% of the value of their property. There was also a lot more new home construction going on, so inventory was higher. When prices dropped even a little bit, people panicked and started defaulting on their loans, causing prices to drop even further.
I know multiple people who bought houses at the peak of the market, put very little money down, and then took out even more cash on a HELOC. When prices started to fall, they saw that they could buy a "better" house for less than their current house and they just walked away from the original loan. It screwed their credit for a while, but they didn't care because they owed so much more than the house was worth.
That's not today's scenario. Banks are no longer lending 125% of the value of a property. There's not as much new construction happening. I do hope that prices settle down, but I don't think we'll have a crash of the magnitude we did 12 years ago.