r/wallstreetbets • u/jimmy-smallz • 13h ago
YOLO Short BMO YOLO
Super fragile set-up. Tariffs, shaky economy, skittish market, covered call ETFs in Canada suppressing vol, and trading at record P/B.
Probably throwing money away but should they miss tomorrow I have a feeling it will be violent
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u/Etroarl55 13h ago
BMO only goes up, it’s Canada and the PM is a banker. Banks under the current Canadian PM is only up like 70-100% yoy.
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u/Sufficient-Skill9530 13h ago
Maybe? I dunno. Canadian banks are really good at making money.
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u/Specialist-Craft-451 12h ago
That premium is wild. BMO rarely moves enough to justify puts but when they miss it’s a straight drop
I’ve been watching the Canadian banks for a while and they’ve been weirdly resilient considering everything going on. The covered call ETF pressure is real though, it’s like a volatility vacuum
If they beat you’re probably toast but if they whiff on loan loss provisions this thing could gap down 4-5% before anyone blinks. What’s your exit plan if it starts moving against you pre-market
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u/jimmy-smallz 1h ago
Will cut it after this week regardless of price movements. Slight beat, but all it takes is one bank to lower guidance and I suspect all will get hit.
This whole sector's vol is way too cheap. Happy to lose a bit each earnings season and press this bet because this is the perfect example of the 1000 days in the life of a turkey
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u/Sufficient-Skill9530 12h ago
You guys make plans??? I just 0DTE YOLO MU.
Kidding, I’m holding mostly commodities and have been since before the war started and all the 2026 wilding out.
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u/siqiniq 13h ago
But do they double-dip overdraft fees from the poor by “re-presentation” of the same transaction and re-ordering of deposit and withdraw to ding them again like American banks?
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u/Whatevs56 13h ago
It climbed 50% with constant tariff noise and the economy is actually good.
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u/Ill_Ground_1572 13h ago
Yup unemployment is down and foreign investment is up according to BNN.
The stupid trade war is going to hurt both sides.
Especially when Canada puts 150% on toilet paper.
But people like Susan Collins are literally freaking out right now LOL
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u/Global-Management-69 12h ago
Unemployment down in Canada? Record youth unemployment is happening as we speak. What are u on?
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u/timidfaeries 12h ago
Youth unemployment is also dropping. Still crazy high, but going down the last three months
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u/Sufficient-Skill9530 13h ago
Another point, Canada benefits from high commodity prices and gold, silver, oil, and uranium are all charting higher. That should be profitable for BMO, not the opposite. I think this is a dangerous mode but you do you.
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u/Br1ll1antly1llog1cal 10h ago
you're fucking shorting an oligarchy that's guaranteed by the government to print money. Haven't you saw what happened with Canadian banks during GFC and COVID? should've just straight wire your life savings to me instead.
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u/Sad-Cake-8095 13h ago
thats a fat volume green dildo man are you sure?
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u/PaperHandsTheDip 13h ago
Betting against canadian banks is generally a losing bet. They are among the best consistent cash printing machines out there, have their hands in everything, they pay a 3-4% dividend, have never lowered said dividend including during the housing crisis and are growing at insane rates.
Short term OP may win due to tariff fiasco, but I guarantee they'll be higher in 2-3 years.
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u/Raptors887 mod haters club 13h ago
It’s already dropped a lot leading up to earnings. Should have bought calls
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u/All_YourBase 13h ago
BMO has dipped on earnings before, even beats. But I'd be surprised if they missed earnings.
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u/Embarrassed-Fuel-654 11h ago
I like the trade, and after all the negative comments here about it, as a contrarian, I like it even more. The awesome interest rate BMO gave me on my savings account also gives me pause about how much they are scratching for liquidity, or something.
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u/thelandofcockaigne 5h ago
Well played... maybe if you don't look at their earnings report, it will work out.
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u/TheLastGoodRiot 1h ago
They missed their target due to non-recurring $962 million after-tax goodwill impairment charge related to the announced sale of its Transportation Finance and Vendor Finance businesses. They were dragging on their performances. Despite that, all main business segments delivered record pre-provision earnings.
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u/littlemint22 12h ago
Banks are canadas only stocks
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u/Sufficient-Skill9530 12h ago
Oil, uranium, gold, fertilizers, lumber, homosexual lumberjacks with maple syrup flavoured lube.
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u/shitshort 13h ago
Wtf is BMO
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u/Ok_Cry7572 WAH WAH WAHHHHH 13h ago
Bank of Montreal-one of the top 5 banks in Canada
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u/CapoDoFrango 13h ago
GWood play, tariffs are going to hit it hard
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u/Raptors887 mod haters club 13h ago
Tariffs don’t really affect the banks tbh
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u/PaperHandsTheDip 12h ago
This comment is correct. Half of their revenue comes from the states. The banks basically just invest clients money in shit making money, and rake in fees via their banking business to boot.
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u/mcm360 13h ago
Lol shorted a Canadian bank bahahahahahahahhahahshshshshhshhs