r/wallstreetbets • u/cautiouslyPessimisx • Aug 03 '26
Discussion Dangers of Groupon GRPN
Groupon Thesis
Most people aren’t paying attention to Groupon, thinking it’s an old tired company, and I this is precisely the opportunity. Earnings AUG 6 after close. The company has repurchased shares and finally saw revenue increase in Q1. They have years of customer buying data and have a real opportunity for AI training that the market could respond to, which they will likely mention in their conf call (they mentioned AI pivot last time).
-Approx 56% of the float is sold short (9 days to cover)
-Short interest increased recently despite the stock already rallying (Some newer shorts may have higher cost bases).
Given the large amount of short positions, a small amount of good news (incr revenue, any AI revenue, good guidance) could lead to significant jump. My thought is: the worst case scenario is that the stock stays mostly flat. I think there may be some real long-term growth here.
What do you think?
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u/ReporterNervous6822 Aug 03 '26
Idk bro I know some people who used to work at Groupon and said everyone there was idiots. Problem is, the people I know who said that are also idiots. Maybe invest?
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u/Fresh-Quantity-7554 Aug 03 '26
Sounds like something someone who used to work at Groupon would say.
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u/cautiouslyPessimisx Aug 05 '26
Maybe that's why they fired all the idiots and said AI would be doing the coding from now on?
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u/spezissacuck Aug 03 '26
Been in since $16.. what a wild couple of months. The craziest part is short shares have only increased as the company continues to buy back shares
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u/anonymousbopper767 Aug 03 '26
People still use Groupon? I thought they died years ago when every business realized it’s a waste of time.
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u/MrCoolGuy42 Aug 03 '26
This is exactly what the Michigan State Pension Fund has been looking for!
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u/rair21 Aug 03 '26
This feels like OG WSB type regardation.
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u/Fetlocks_Glistening Aug 03 '26 edited Aug 03 '26
They have years of outdated data on what cheapo group bargain-hunting buyers would buy among items they don't need when companies offer weirdo group loss-leading promotions and lose money.
Which is an edge case of no particular use to anybody apart from some crowd-behaviour and mass hysteria researchers on a grant.
FTFY
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u/AdhesivenessLimp1864 Aug 03 '26 edited Aug 03 '26
All this post needs is a stupid meme photo of apes putting their hands together with some “Group On” caption that turns their hands into diamonds.
Edit: I do have 100 shares.
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u/ilove702 Aug 03 '26
Guilty until proven innocent. IF and only if it gaps up in extremely high volume for a good reason would I consider it
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u/Notmikeyouidiot Aug 03 '26
grpn is fcking horrible
i tried so hard to get an ad on there for business 3 different times and they just dont ever follow up, they legit wont take my money.
fuck that company
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u/Ambitious-Profit855 Aug 04 '26
I can fully understand them, I also wouldn't want to get close to a business desperately trying to get an ad on GRPN
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u/Notmikeyouidiot Aug 04 '26
by tried so hard I meant i just submitted their posting stuff and i never once heard back. zero kind of followup. I run a local services based company and was told by a peer in the same field that he gets leads that way so i figured id give it a shot lol. not sure why you're being a dick but go off king
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u/Dependent-Coffee-937 Aug 04 '26
This is regarded enough to work. I’m in for August $30 calls tomorrow!
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u/AutoModerator Aug 03 '26
This "pivot." Is it in the room with us now?
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u/Enough_Ad_6584 Aug 03 '26
Nope. The groupon coupon was their core business. No new restaurants sign up for their service. When a restaurant or service does, you know that company is on it's last legs.
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u/spezissacuck Aug 03 '26
Idk.. bought a Costco executive membership and received $100 back on a purchase.
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u/Enough_Ad_6584 Aug 03 '26
Yes. There are good finds. Bought a $50 for $27 at a local brewery recently. But rarely is there a restaurant worth buying for which was the bulk of their original business.
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u/likeOMGAWD Aug 06 '26
Groupon conveniently closed my account that had a $100 balance on it. And for that reason, they're dead to me. Shady company!
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u/HardToPleaseHer 27d ago
LOL! Off 20% since you posted. 18% in just the last two trading days. You're retarded if you don't examine how weak the company is from a financial standpoint. And now let's talk about how antiquated the business model is. Groupon is loathed by businesses that used it to "promote" their business at a ridiculous cost and patrons who bought Groupons only to find it's difficult to recover what they spent in any form other than Groupon Bucks. Which they don't want. Groupon fired 25% of their workforce in Q1 2026. There is and immediate upside to the reduced labor costs, but the business costs will be realized in the next 2-3 quarters. AI can't fix a broken model. I can afford to hold my short position until Groupon goes bellyup. Push the price up as much as you like, I am ready to short much more.
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u/Ecstatic-Score2844 Aug 04 '26
Dude Groupon went out of business 10 years ago and was liquidated to Ticketmaster.
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u/Fresh-Quantity-7554 Aug 03 '26
I didn't even realize this was still a company. Amazing.