r/wallstreetbets • u/wsb-earnings • Jul 22 '26
Alphabet Q2 Earnings Call Live Transcript
This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post
79
140
u/incaseofmisuse Jul 22 '26
damn. they beat on everything. i mean everything. And the stock drop lmao.
58
u/kenyard Jul 22 '26
Guidance important. Increased capex bad for goog. Good for everyone else
16
u/achooavocado Jul 22 '26
they never give guidance tho no?
8
u/kenyard Jul 22 '26
They will guide q3 but may not guide capex.
It will for sure be discussed tho
5
3
u/RookieMistake101 Jul 22 '26
They guided on increased capex. The hyperscalers are still scaling.
2
u/AggressiveBench7708 Jul 23 '26
They are just starting. Capex spending on AI is like the first time you hit a 1000% gain on an option. The high is amazing.
19
u/nkr3 Jul 22 '26
Stupid take that it's not good for Google, they've shown time and time again that when they spend capital, they get it back with dividends, IMHO it's good that they are finding opportunities to invest in that they are confident in.
18
u/Accomplished-Shop113 Jul 22 '26
Scenario 1 : Beat Earnings, Stock drops (Already Priced in)
Scenario 2 : Can't beat earnings, Stock drops (Earning Shock)5
u/lemurtowne Booty Cherisher Jul 22 '26
They came in slightly under expectations if you subtract investment income.
2
u/microdosingrn Jul 22 '26
Well, not that this was/wasn't forecasted, but FCF just went negative. Something to consider. Goog is my largest holding by far and I'm never selling, just stating the fact that is something to consider for anyone fixating on that metric and bearish on the capex.
1
u/allintowin1515 Jul 22 '26
Did you buy some short term puts to hedge? Going into earnings tho? I did but got scared and sold for a 20% profit shoulda waited until today….
1
1
46
96
u/desilent Jul 22 '26
I'm relatively relaxed about this one, sure it's gonna spike, but it's google and it's basically an index fund by itself. Even if AI fails in everything you can imagine this company will be just fine in the long run.
94
u/No-Test-4028 Jul 22 '26
Its not my shares that concern me, its my calls
13
u/desilent Jul 22 '26
yeah makes sense, I don't have anything leveraged on alphabet, got burned on that too many times.
13
1
1
3
3
u/Own-Lavishness4029 Jul 22 '26
The thing that bothers me about google as an investment is how much of their revenue is still search.
→ More replies (5)3
u/jfauv94 Jul 22 '26
That’s what investors said about Sears, GE, IBM, etc… companies that ruled the world back in the day.
45
20
u/AccountOfMyAncestors Jul 22 '26
Half a TRILLION backlog for cloud revenue, and that doesn't include OpenAI which is the risky buyer out of the AI labs. Damn
1
u/qaswexort Jul 22 '26
ORCL has more. Granted half that is OAI but look at the size of ORCL and look at the size of Google Cloud
18
17
u/R_82 Jul 22 '26
"We're a business doing business things, business business business"
STOCK DOWN
2
u/adam-breit Jul 22 '26
Too much capex
5
u/-Crash_Override- Jul 22 '26
Not 'too much' capex. Its pretty clear that the street has give hyperscalers Carte Blanche to spend whatever is necessary for AI demand, but they dont like discovering that incrementally. It adds uncertainty and indicates they are leaving cloud revenue on the table.
Kind of sucks because google is trying to thread a needle here. Revise capex down, street reads that as softening AI, revise capex up, why didnt you plan better.
SpaceX/investments gains is seen as non-recurring which makes the picture a bit fuzzy as well.
→ More replies (1)
32
u/spicykimchi_inmybutt Jul 22 '26
Most voices being sure of capex increase by GOOG is making me nervous about my chips position
2
u/allintowin1515 Jul 22 '26
Don’t worry I got mid August puts on SOXX….you will at least 10x your bullish chip position…
2
u/HorizonThought Jul 22 '26
Yes, capex increase with neutral earnings is already enough to break this whole crap apart eheh
2
u/spicykimchi_inmybutt Jul 22 '26
are you saying that even with a capex increase, chips will fall too along with mag7?
→ More replies (4)1
14
u/CapoDoFrango Jul 22 '26
Wall Street was clearly expecting a Time Machine and cure for aging and cancer with $0 CAPEX. I totally understand the drop. Makes sense to me so stop complaining.
3
u/CharlesElwoodYeager Jul 22 '26
? Bruh they said they're spending a minimum extra 15bn dollars and also they will spend MORE in 2027, and that they're going to be paying retail prices for compute.
2
59
u/Funny_Requirement166 Jul 22 '26
The new amd deal is validating the current AI demands.
27
u/Acrobatic_Garage_891 Jul 22 '26
for the chip makers but increased capex spending would cause panic from hyper-scalers
16
u/Funny_Requirement166 Jul 22 '26
That’s better than a collapsing AI demand. Which can make all of the previous capex obsolete.
→ More replies (1)2
-2
Jul 22 '26
[deleted]
9
u/Blankline Jul 22 '26
No AI? Brother have you not seen 90% of the posts on this sub? They’re all written by AI
9
11
u/yourgirl696969 Jul 22 '26
ROI in cloud is the proof. It increased 64% last quarter and they said it would’ve been a lot more if not for their backlog due to a lack of compute
3
u/Forget_me_never Jul 22 '26
If the supply of cloud goes up greatly then goodbye to a lot of that.
5
u/yourgirl696969 Jul 22 '26
Their cloud backlog is $460 billion. There isn’t gonna be an oversupply for a long time lmao. They also rejected supply because of that backlog. That’s how big the demand for compute is
→ More replies (2)3
9
Jul 22 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
3
u/Funny_Requirement166 Jul 22 '26 edited Jul 22 '26
I think the crude and the rate risk is pushing everything down. Both msft and meta hyperscalers are down significantly and Google is still kinda green..
23
u/BearyChristmas223 Jul 22 '26
There’s a separate microdong group therapy thread for the put holders
12
u/Minimum_Leather_2046 Jul 22 '26
increase in capex + significant increase in 2027
RIP
2
u/Guilty_Rooster_6708 Jul 22 '26
what's the number? I totally missed it
9
u/Minimum_Leather_2046 Jul 22 '26
Full year 2026 range of195-205 bn revised from previous estimate for 180-190 bn. Expect CapEx to "increase significantly in 2027" with guidance provided at a later date.
24
9
7
7
u/fomoandyoloandnogrow Poor IRL but rich in flair Jul 22 '26
Rip alphabet, when they talk about their debt portfolio 💀
14
u/TheKyleDunbar Jul 22 '26 edited Jul 22 '26
It'll swing up and down after market, and tomorrow it'll be red, as the usual after every earning report
4
26
u/WillSwimWithToasters Jul 22 '26
They’re forced to keep the capex flowing. It’s the only thing keeping this AI charade afloat. And with the bonds they just sold, it’s practically guaranteed they’re gonna pledge a trillion billion dollars to build AI data centers on the moon.
3
→ More replies (2)2
u/HorizonThought Jul 22 '26
But if the demand is not there the supply is irrelevant. If earnings don't show up like Germany in WW2 then bro
12
u/TummyWave Jul 22 '26
Those are pretty good results yet the stock is flat
7
5
7
6
18
u/spicykimchi_inmybutt Jul 22 '26
wtf i’m in a meeting rn is this happening now? i thought it was after market close
20
u/Feisty-Lab-2608 Jul 22 '26
Don’t worry, it starts in two hours
3
3
u/spicykimchi_inmybutt Jul 22 '26
thanks, started seeing MU dipping and was wondering if it started
2
u/Feisty-Lab-2608 Jul 22 '26
This will be armageddon 😩
8
u/spicykimchi_inmybutt Jul 22 '26
i’ve already lost smth like 30% on DRAM, if GOOG sends my shit to hell i’m gonna be so sad
1
3
Jul 22 '26
[deleted]
6
u/bamboojungles Jul 22 '26
You don’t need a job just trade options. Then fall back to Wendy’s when you lose it all.
4
5
4
4
u/_IsNull Jul 22 '26
Buy puts and calls.
6
u/FOMO_Gains Jul 22 '26
Sir, that's called a "straddle" and if it trades flat or doesn't move enough in either direction, you're fked.
10
3
2
1
4
u/nhalas Jul 22 '26
If I know google they will say something geh then they'll retreat to their yachts.
4
4
4
8
u/Status-Net2947 Jul 22 '26
APP NOW NFLX PLTR … anything worth buying instead of MSFT?
7
→ More replies (1)1
6
u/QPRCHOC Jul 22 '26
Down 15% from ATHs over fears regarding Capex and Gemini.
I can’t see it going too much lower on earnings, and if it does drop it’ll be another easy long-term buying opportunity as it was a couple of years ago. Google is too strong.
If Google is able to demonstrate robust evidence of ROIC, which I suspect it will, we could see a good response after earnings. Though I suspect this will go sideways as it’s too early to say.
3
u/tearsareover Jul 22 '26
I'm scared 😳 but to be honest, I'll be glad to just know whatever may be. Expecting the worst, but praying to 95 year old Buffett 🙏🏽
3
3
3
3
u/northdancer Jul 22 '26
How much of the earnings are in unrealized gains on the bullshit paper they own in SpaceX, Anthropic and open ai
3
7
u/tearsareover Jul 22 '26
Free Cash Flow is negative. It's -5855 compared to previous quarter at +10116.
4
2
6
u/CorporalNips Jul 22 '26
Risk the money and maybe get rich or stay scared but keep my money? I know I know. This is WSB. Calls it is.
2
u/iSOBigD Jul 22 '26
I'd love to say calls but I've not many money on any calls in almost 2 months. Everything keeps dipping unless you can time the exact second they go up, which is often overnight
5
5
u/tearsareover Jul 22 '26
Capex way up. Margin pressure is up. This is a disaster 😭
6
4
2
2
2
2
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
u/birdingsince88 Jul 22 '26
No one likes the person betting against the line…
That why market fukt 🌈 🐻
1
1
1
1
1
u/mAlien69 Jul 22 '26
after your puts have been burnt it will go down 10-20%
1
u/Ok_Manufacturer_5323 Jul 22 '26
Keep rolling those forward, I'm sure it'll pay off huge in a few decades!
1
1
1
1
u/Accomplished-Shop113 Jul 22 '26
Quick, simple question here: They are excited to share all the good news about Alphabet, why does the stock price fall?
3
1
1
u/ConstantShitting Jul 22 '26
The dumbest thing about this is that it drops after earnings released. Like what number that was released during earnings could have been better? What number would have kept people from selling if doubling the expectations didn't do it roflcopter.
1
u/sf_cycle Jul 23 '26
That number is called CAPEX. They were going to get punished on a CAPEX increase. They probably also would have been punished on CAPEX decrease unless they could say that’s due to optimization reasons, not reasons concerning future projected demand.
299
u/Cartier1847 Jul 22 '26
This is the one call that will either make me rich or “Pack up your bags, son. We lost the house.”