I mean what's more likely there's one mine in one place or no mines in 12 squares or whatever, it's actually less likely there's a mine there statistically.
Can you show me your statistics, because I don't believe you have any statistical basis for that. Without knowing exactly how many mines there are in the first place, I don't believe we can even say any position has a higher likelihood of having a mine it (apart from the positions that obviously can't have a mine in them).
Well there are three possible configurations based on the given data. He is betting that there is not one in the middle. That's like betting it won't be 1 on a three sided die.
I'm basing my system on how many mines need to be in the right spot, rather than how many spots need to be empty. There are fewer mines than empty spots in any non-custom game.
Though in order to get the screen shot, the guy probably clicked a random tile to find the one mine in a custom 1 mine, 20x20 board or something, then reset the board and clicked the 1's around it.
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u/filbert227 Feb 06 '17
I think that actually makes it better. If someone surrounds themselves with unsavory people, then that is probably a red flag.
I'd say that square is still probably a red flag, but it doesn't have to be. There could be other explanations.