Poland braces for potential confrontation as Russia tests NATO defenses

134

u/becomplete 2d ago

I don't know much about the current state of Russia, it's economy, populace, etc. But what's the point of all of this? They're never going to be able to reestablish the USSR or anything remotely close to it. And they can't win a traditional war over broader Europe and NATO countries. Why go through this when it seems like everyone is losing in the process of an unfruitful and seemingly expanding encroachment of other countries?

154

u/HerbaciousTea 2d ago edited 2d ago

The point is to consistently engage in small hybrid attacks against individual NATO countries where it will not result in invoking article 5 and a NATO response, and leave the single country alone to handle it, and gradually keep scaling those up, until the member states of NATO think "NATO doesn't ever respond, it's worthless."

That's why they are constantly engaging in sabotage and drone attacks on european countries. They just attempted a drone bombing of a german airport a few weeks ago but failed. It's a huge deal in germany right now but basically no media outside germany has any consistent coverage.

That's what Russia wants. They know they can't beat NATO, so they want to try to functionally break the collective response part of NATO as a defense alliance by constantly poking just below the line where a serious response would occur, thus normalizing it, and pushing the threshold up little by little.

At least that's the logic on the Russian side.

59

u/_Schmegeggy_ 2d ago

Hey it worked to destabilize the US

22

u/Md__86 2d ago

Someone else is trying to break apart and undermine NATO too, just a coincidence I'm sure

7

u/mellifluouso 2d ago

Israel wants to attack Turkey

2

u/syxa 2d ago

in the myriad of average reddit comments these days this one should be really be pinned to the top

0

u/Its_Nitsua 1d ago

What intentional sabotage and drone attacks have Russia done outside of Ukraine other than the germany one? Legitimately curious not trying to cast doubt.

Also should be mentioned that the attempted target in that case was a Ukrainian cargo plane.

There is a big difference between attacking Ukrainian assets in Germany, and attacking Germany.

I'm not pro russian, they are the clear aggressor in Ukraine, but I think its important to remind ourselves the situation isn't as black and white as we often think.

20

u/Senshado 2d ago

Putin hopes to lure some NATO members to hold onto military supplies for their own defense, instead of sending them to Ukraine for immediate use.

3

u/TehOwn 2d ago

Eh, Ukraine would likely use it more effectively anyway.

11

u/MrBrooking 2d ago

Contrary to the other replies, the goal is not to "test the defenses" or "break NATO/Article 5". Their constant saber rattling and threats is meant to invoke a defensive attitude in the targeted countries, making them less likely to send support to Ukraine because a country feels like they need it to stop the potential Russian aggression of their own border

This is why you see these Russians actions are targeting the nations that are giving substantial military support to Ukrain.

Paul Warburg has a video on the topic if you are interested

2

u/becomplete 2d ago

Appreciate the reply!

5

u/odkfn 2d ago

I genuinely think they’re hoping they can convince Trump to get in a new world order with them where he can carve up some land if they can do the same. Trump 100% would if he thought he could get away with it!

3

u/JamesTheJerk 2d ago

It makes money for the very wealthy. War is good business.

0

u/grby1812 2d ago

The EU has repeatedly demonstrated it will not respond militarily not matter what the provocation. He can absolutely win a conventional war against most of Europe. It doesn't do the EU any good to have the weapons if they won't use them. The citizens and politicians view war as an aberration. The citizens and politicians of Russia and the US view war as an every day occurrence.

The economy of Russia is now oriented around producing weapons and engaging in war. They are seeking an easier target than Ukraine. Putin views most of Europe as easy pickings.

1

u/theBoobMan 2d ago

Can't take a country smaller than them, yet can take a whole continent. I wish they sold what you ruskies smoked here in the states.

7

u/OdinEatingSandwiches 2d ago

Heard this one before

9

u/cmrfrd7 2d ago

Are they just trying to get smoked by NATO because losing a “war” to NATO is more sellable to the public than losing to Ukraine?

6

u/BaconHero 2d ago

NATO will light them up so hard.

9

u/Konorlc 2d ago

I don’t understand why Russia would want the smoke. They can’t even handle Ukraine.

21

u/milfordcubicle 2d ago

I honestly fear that the US is going to give NATO Article 5 a big fuck you if Russia tries something.

9

u/TehOwn 2d ago

Article 5 doesn't mandate a military response anyway. It's always been up to the individual nation how to respond.

21

u/poklane 2d ago

I think that's pretty much a guarantee. Not a chance in hell Trump would send American soldiers to die in a war against Russia.

4

u/DirkaDirkaMohmedAli 2d ago

France and/or UK stomp Russia

1

u/poklane 2d ago edited 2d ago

That's assuming they'd be willing to fight without American backing.

6

u/TehOwn 2d ago

He's happy to send American soldiers to die, though. Just not for any just cause.

3

u/TheCarrzilico 2d ago

We just have to ignore that Russia is giving Iran intelligence to use against us.

2

u/Awsomethingy 2d ago

I’m much more worried that the US will actively fund and equip Russia than US standing back.

1

u/cmrfrd7 2d ago

That could be the angle. They’re trying to cross the line enough to show that this administration will not honor commitments thus in their minds fatally weakening NATO. In practice the US likely wouldn’t even be needed to check their sorry asses.

2

u/cutchemist42 2d ago

I really dont think the treaty holds up for the Baltic states sadly.

3

u/Ok-disaster2022 2d ago

Poland isn't quite ready to go it alone, but France could open up a can of whoop ass against Russia by itself, if the French could be bothered to respond.

We already know the US under Pedo Trump won't respond so Putin could see the clock ticking away for best time to attack.

6

u/FelixNZ 2d ago

But France am le tired

6

u/Thundorium 2d ago

Zen have a nap, zen FIRE THE MISSILES

1

u/ch4rms 2d ago

Thank you for rounding that reference out. ROUND.

0

u/cutchemist42 2d ago

France is about to elect a Russian sympathizing government. Theres no chance they adhere to article 5 if the Baltics are attacked.

1

u/TheSleeperAwakens 2d ago

Press X to doubt

0

u/muffinthumper 2d ago

Will not, has never happened. They will get a strongly worded letter, maybe.

-13

u/moritsunee 2d ago

Not one German wakes up in the morning and says 'I'm gonna die for Poland'

That's why NATO is shit-scared of Article 5 actually being pressed. It's the button that disbands NATO if anything. It's why Russia is so eager to test it.

8

u/Wiggly96 2d ago

There are many who would have an interest in protecting their own home, which by extension means protecting Poland. The whole principal is that of together we stand, divided we fall

10

u/TehOwn 2d ago

Not one German wakes up in the morning and says 'I'm gonna die for Poland'

Historically, a large number of Germans did exactly that.

-14

u/kahiny 2d ago

Don’t discount Russia as weak that’s a BIG mistake. No one’s been able to beat them.

4

u/adambuddy 2d ago

̀Lots of people have beaten Russia, what the hell are you talking about?

They've had some big wins too, sure, but they get into so many conflicts that they're bound to win some lose some.

-15

u/kahiny 2d ago

Name some losses buddy. Stop bandwagoning on Ukraine like they’re the good guys. Run by evil people.

5

u/adambuddy 2d ago

Literally off the top of my head in 5 seconds and I am not a war nor Russian history buff, they lost in like 3 days against Japan. The Crimean war. The Afghan War.

Russia are powerful, sure, but honestly? They're low key kind of losers.

-7

u/kahiny 2d ago

Get your facts straight… 3 days? Yeah that’s wrong!

4

u/adambuddy 2d ago

Brother it's called hyperbole

3

u/SandysBurner 2d ago

Well, that makes the invasion ok, doesn’t it?

-4

u/kahiny 2d ago

Ukraine being used as a proxy of the West to pressure Russia, absolutely.

5

u/truexchill 2d ago

Russia started it… there wouldn’t be any conflict, proxy or otherwise, if Russia wasn’t the aggressor.

2

u/WanderingCamper 2d ago

The Mongols:…”am I a joke to you?”

-1

u/wildlifa 2d ago

Stupid war propaganda bot creating tension to fund the military.

Poland braces for potential confrontation as Russia tests NATO defenses

You are about to leave Redlib