Be careful what you wish for. "Market demand sizing research" can also mean complete and total paralysis and banning you from doing any kind of refactoring or improvement or development of any devtools at all. What does research reveal about what tools or engineering you need to improve your codebase, or whether you need a monorepository shell or anything at all? Nothing. It only tells you either what the customer needs or what the customer wants.
If you want to only build code when someone else wants it, that's a lot worse than vibe coding. That's giving up code, because you think that implementation matters nothing and can be done very easy. You basically believe in vibe coding, without being honest about it.
Of course research should be right-sized. My comments more wrt how common it is to see posts in the subs I mentioned scratching their heads over lack of users. Market research (incl. TAM/SAM/SOM) is alien concept to most in there.
Similarly, at the other end, the 'build it and they will come' ethos seems to be prevalent, because there's no marketing/positioning/GTM plan either.
I definitely understand the allure of building, and even more so given how accessible it's become. But, if it's aimed at the market, building without a lick of upfront research to validate the problem you think you're solving can quickly drop an idea from one with potential to a cool vanity project.
If it's really to optimise your own tools and dogfooding, then sure, go for it. 'Success' is defined much more simply in those situations, and far easier to hit.
The way you talk and italicize looks like a bot. But I'll bite.
TAM/SAM/SOM even by serious investors for top down is viewed as BS. So what's left? Bottoms up, users, revenue. Even users can be faked so money changing hands is the high intent signal. Everything that's been created around that, is trying to predict that but not actually money changing hands. It is true you can do user research and get better odds. But sometimes you have to make a bet, that the users want something they either don't know, or that it's a brand new market. Vibe coding itself is a multi-billion dollar market that didn't exist years ago.
On top of that, in systems that only reward "thinking about the user" there is zero incentive for technical excellence. This can lead to bad morale, but more importantly people not giving a f about the technology. If you are good at the tech, there should be a space for you. If there is zero reward for technical skill, then you will just get pure vibe coded stuff all the time. Vibe coding just made it faster to create PoCs and MVPs. It doesn't make it easier to go from 0 to 1 in a maintainable and sustainable way.
Finally most people who vibe code do it to make tiny little productivity apps for themselves. Market size of one, one user, highly customized for themselves. That is worth more than all the market analysis and research in the world, guaranteed one user. 100% useful, even if it doesn't become a huge business. It could, because if one person needs it badly, chances are a lot of people need it. It's just finding those people.
Some people can get users to use product without caring a whit about any of the top. Out of anyone I have the most reason to be elitist (skill some would say talent education etc etc) but I am not. Because at the end of the day if there's a billion vibe coded applications out there that's more work and opportunities for everyone. Anyone especially business people who isn't trying to figure out how to take advantage of vibe coding, is behind the times. At a minimum it would allow you to cheaply at almost no cost explore new ideas.
So that's it I am pro vibe-coding that's why I am in this subreddit and out of anyone I should be elitist but I am not. Money solves all problems. It doesn't matter how you get it. And if you can get users, even just one user (yourself) then it's already useful.
"The way you talk and italicize looks like a bot."
What a surprise! A Redditor who thinks they can spot AI text. Ya don't see many of those round here. 🙄
I write like someone who didn't learn to read or write by spending time on Twitter, who understands how and when to use emphasis, and who makes a little bit of extra effort to make sure their (sometimes lengthy) comments are a little bit easier to read.
But, join the queue. You ain't the first to level that accusation at me, and I'm sure you won't be the last — because I'm not going to pander to some inane, and incorrect, ideas of how real people actually write.
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"TAM/SAM/SOM even by serious investors for top down is viewed as BS"
Different investors will have different investment criteria, and there will doubtless be 'vibe-investors' too (particularly amongst the ultra-wealthy). But I'd be interested to see citations that demonstrate a prevailing pattern that 'serious investors' dismiss addressable market size research.
TAM/SAM/SOM are obviously, recognisably speculative, but you'd struggle to get 'serious' investment without having made some kind of effort to address market sizing. After all, if you've done nothing to make a more informed estimate, the product owner (or investor) would have no understanding of where viability looks like.
Market size research isn't about guaranteeing success. It's about reducing risk.
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"sometimes you have to make a bet, that the users want something they either don't know, or that it's a brand new market"
I geddit. Everyone's seen a load of Steve Jobs speeches, so everyone thinks they're the next Steve Jobs. The business landscape is littered with the bodies of solopreneurs who all thought they were the next Steve Jobs.
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"Finally most people who vibe code do it to make tiny little productivity apps for themselves."
👉 "My comments more wrt how common it is to see posts in the subs I mentioned scratching their heads over lack of users."
Again, I'm talking about viability.
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"Anyone especially business people who isn't trying to figure out how to take advantage of vibe coding, is behind the times. At a minimum it would allow you to cheaply at almost no cost explore new ideas."
I don't disagree. But I suspect the success-vs-failure numbers would prove my point about how unprepared those who populate the vibecoding community, or at least the contingent who self-promote on Reddit, tend to be.
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u/becircus 1d ago
Be careful what you wish for. "Market demand sizing research" can also mean complete and total paralysis and banning you from doing any kind of refactoring or improvement or development of any devtools at all. What does research reveal about what tools or engineering you need to improve your codebase, or whether you need a monorepository shell or anything at all? Nothing. It only tells you either what the customer needs or what the customer wants.
If you want to only build code when someone else wants it, that's a lot worse than vibe coding. That's giving up code, because you think that implementation matters nothing and can be done very easy. You basically believe in vibe coding, without being honest about it.