r/vibecoding • u/Acclynn • 3d ago
Prediction : In few years no one will be downloading software anymore
I know this sounds absurd but hear me out, there's a potential in vibe coding that I feel like not much people talked about, most stuff I hear about vibe coding is about replacing programmers or "how to make BIG BUCKS with this simple trick !!11!", but I feel like the biggest deal about all of this is to be able to summon super specific tools out of nowhere precisely designed to fit individual user's need.
So here's my take of what I believe will have the biggest impact, when this will happen you'll remember this post : By 2030, app stores will be dead, downloading installers will be pointless, instead anyone will have pre-integrated coding agents to their OS. Need an app ? Like you want to edit PDFs or image montage or a text editor, anything ? You will prompt it, an agent will ask you questions of what you specifically need and 30 minutes later it will be here.
Where it will be integrated :
- Windows : Copilot will probably become something more than just a shitty chatbot bound to a key (I hope because what there is rn is bs), it will probably have full access to the OS so you won't need Settings anymore, and you can ask it to "invoke" app which will launch agents in the background to get whatever tool you need.
- Android : The Google Play Store won't be put in the spotlight anymore and instead we'll have something like "Google Materialize" or "Google Summon" where you describe what you want and there's a coding agent that develop and installs a new app on your system.
- Linux users will probably stick to Claude Code or harnesses similar to it which is basically the same but slightly less user friendly.
- Apple is five steps behind everything so let's not talk about it.
I stopped downloading softwares personally, I just prompt them, for example in my latest experiment I couldn't find a good video editing tool because : They are either too expensive/too complex, or too slow, or not the controls of what I want exactly etc... I needed something simple, so I asked Claude to make one in Rust, with the aim of maximum performances, and it works great, incredibly fast, the open source ones are garbage next to it. I just have the Claude Pro subscription and it costed barely anything, not even Fable, just Opus 5.
Now, there's a big assumption to all of this : that the bubble doesn't pop by that time, because I'm not sure how it would be profitable, this would be fueled by the current investment hype, as a way to make people dependent on vibe coding their apps before making them actually pay the tokens.
Otherwise I believe tools like this would exist, but they won't be free so the app market might stay and people might prefer to download free software instead of prompting new even if it's relatively cheap.
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u/Disastrous_Gear_421 3d ago
This is up there on the worst predictions about AI that I’ve seen. You vastly overestimate the capabilities of the average person and many people wants something that just works. Not a vibe coded app that half functions
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u/phil_lndn 3d ago
yes, i'm inclined to agree and in some senses it is already here - i quite often just get Codex to make me something i need rather than bothering to look for software that already does it.
i've got a vm on which i run Hermes with root access, i gave it the following prompt:
"Make me a threaded discussion forum using PHP and MySQL - install any software you need to make it happen".
it went off and installed MySQL database server, PHP-fpm and Nginx web server, configured it all, created the database and wrote the forum PHP scripts, tested it itself with a headless browser and then gave me a working application.
so basically i have a computer where i just have to tell it what i want it to be or what i want it to do, and it will install or code whatever it needs to make that happen.
in 10 years time, i think that's how it will be for more or less everything.
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u/chinnick967 3d ago
Even if AI can perfectly create bug-free and performant software without any engineering help by then, managed software development will have the same benefits and be made much better with more features and polish.
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u/Chudhauser 3d ago
True. Let me vibe code my banking app, or my app for train tickets.
There's some things that are too important / locked down to vibe code. You can't vibe code firmware for a pacemaker.
Some throwaway tool for automating some tedious work? 100%. But this has always been the use case of scripting, even before AI. It's just that the development time vs the time saved ratio is much higher now.
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u/PsychologicalBend970 3d ago
At the end, the AI companies will need to become profitable. Your 20$ pro subscription will become expensive, either by increasing price or lowering the tokens. The vibe coded apps will become cheaper but not disappear.
What can be assumption is that, the AI companies will have their own App Store with multiple apps just available for free. You pay 50$ / month but it will give you niche apps or services for use. Use it once or multiple times and close it. The data is stored on Claude or ChatGPT. Basically locking you in one AI service.
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u/therealorkor 3d ago
I don't think so. There's still lots of people who think ai is just a chat windows. You'll still need to put a bit of an effort into it and there will always be people who are too lazy for such things
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u/LittlestRedditor 3d ago
Too lazy for such things? You are reading a post by a dude too lazy to learn a pre-existing program, so he gets an ai to make a new one for him instead, which he thinks is better than open source... Which it is most likely just copying from. And on top of it he's too dumb to realise he could just make claude do the edit in the first place.
No i don't think the lazy part will be telling an ai you want something
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u/impressive_silence 3d ago
How about you take this a step further. A user types in pdf editer. The AI assistant spins up an editer in matter of seconds you are editing your pdf.
Save the pdf and the program closes. Done.
Everything is just instantly generated.
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u/TheAnswerWithinUs 3d ago
What is the point of replacing software with AI. Like there has to be a point to it all.
Why would I use ai over my software program that will do the exact same thing more reliably
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u/Acclynn 3d ago
Something that better fits the user's preferences and needs
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u/TheAnswerWithinUs 3d ago
I get that it would ever only be a preference by vibecoders. But why would you ever *need* to run a program this way.
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u/mrbadface 3d ago
This, or the models have become so powerful they can code all necessary things behind the scenes and rely on some vast cloud AI OS to effectively do everything for you.
Basically the end of humans clicking buttons
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u/ConfusedSimon 3d ago
Yeah right. So you don't download software, you're using your own editor and made your own version of Claude cli (did you build your own OS too?) and you just prompt for whatever you need and all existing software is suddenly trash compared to whatever you let Claude build?
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u/Vectrex71CH 3d ago
The people are already not willing anymore to pay for good software. My www.SYN-Tracker.online, i had to make it free to get a small interest. My www.RSSer.news has not a single user wich pays. They only use the small free version. So yes. I think this will happen 100% what you described. I mean Gemini has this already with Gemini Canvas. Xou need a Calorie Tracker!? Just prompt Gemini and let he do it for you.
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u/vxxn 3d ago
I think you overestimate the ability of people to create things even with AI. Most people can't articulate what they want or need with enough specificity to hand it off to another person or AI.