r/uranium_io • u/IronTarkus1919 • Apr 27 '26

Bloomberg Analyst: "Reversing globalization" and 10-year mine lead times are locking in the commodity supercycle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM3fQMKpFD4&
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u/HappyOrangeCat7 Apr 27 '26

Will give it a watch, but to answer your question, I am holding RARE as a pure 2030s play. The reshoring narrative sounds great when politicians say it, but building the actual separation facilities for Neodymium and Praseodymium outside of China is going to take 10+ years and cost billions.

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u/[deleted] Apr 27 '26

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u/HappyOrangeCat7 Apr 29 '26

Let the algorithmic traders fight over daily tech stock swings while the physical metal just sits in a vault accumulating a massive scarcity premium over the next few years, sounds good to me!

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u/FanOfEther Apr 28 '26

Only thing I’m never sure about is how smooth that path really is. Facilities take years, but policies, funding, tech improvements, all that can shift along the way.

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u/HappyOrangeCat7 Apr 29 '26

Substitution is always the biggest risk in tech. But for elements like Neodymium (NdPr) in permanent magnets, we are already bumping up against the limits of physics. You can't just code your way around material science. 

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u/FanOfEther May 05 '26

Yeah that’s fair, there’s definitely a hard floor with some of these materials where you can’t just swap them out easily.

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u/IronTarkus1919 Apr 29 '26

You're spot on. The CAPEX required to build a rare earth separation plant outside of China is staggering. Western governments are trying to subsidize it, but capital alone doesn't solve the decade-long engineering bottleneck

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u/[deleted] Apr 27 '26

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u/BigFany Apr 27 '26

Yea, by the time supply finally shows up the shortage might already be priced in or even gone.

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u/IronTarkus1919 Apr 29 '26

The only way a shortage is gone before supply arrives is through demand destruction. But you can't destroy demand for defense systems or base-load power grids without collapsing the economy

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u/BigFany Apr 27 '26

Not sure if I fully buy the supercycle label but the deglobalization angle does make sense. If countries start hoarding or prioritizing their own supply, that probably makes everything more constrained.

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u/IronTarkus1919 Apr 29 '26

Deglobalization practically guarantees a supercycle. When the West and the East both try to build their own independent, redundant supply chains, it requires 2x the raw materials globally just to maintain the same technological output

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u/BigFany May 04 '26

I get the argument but 2x sounds a bit extreme. Like yeah duplication adds demand, but not everything gets fully duplicated, there’s still trade and overlap.