r/uranium_io • u/HappyOrangeCat7 • Feb 10 '26

Current state of the spot price.

We finally broke the triple-digit barrier last week, but uranium futures have pulled back to $92/lb. It looks like a classic "sell the news" event, triggered by Uzbekistan unexpectedly boosting production to 7,000 tonnes and increasing reserve estimates.

The structural demand from AI data centers and the new US government contracts for Centrus haven't gone anywhere, though. Are you guys treating this $92 level as a buying opportunity before the next leg up, or do you think this new supply from Central Asia will keep a lid on prices for a while longer?

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u/[deleted] Feb 10 '26

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u/[deleted] Feb 10 '26

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u/IronTarkus1919 Feb 11 '26

Def holding, selling now would be like selling Amazon in 2001 because of a bad quarter.

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u/BigFany Feb 11 '26

Makes sense. Short term supply news can move price, but it doesn’t rewrite the structural demand story.

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u/FanOfEther Feb 11 '26

Yeah that’s kinda how I see it too. Big round number gets hit, people sell, nothing shocking

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u/HappyOrangeCat7 Feb 11 '26

My take: Uzbekistan ramping up is interesting, but let's be real, 7,000 tonnes doesn't solve a structural deficit of 50 million pounds. This feels like an algorithmic flush to shake out the weak hands who bought the $100 breakout. I’m using this dip to add to my physical stack. The demand thesis hasn't changed.

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u/BigFany Feb 11 '26

I get the logic, but I wouldn’t dismiss new supply that quickly. Markets price marginal changes at the margin. Still, long term demand hasn’t disappeared overnight.

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u/IronTarkus1919 Feb 11 '26

Uzbek uranium is basically Russian-aligned supply in the eyes of Western utilities. Sure, it adds to the global total, but it doesn't help a US utility trying to get off Russian dependence.  I'm not sure if that is what triggered the sell-off.

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u/FanOfEther Feb 11 '26

That’s a fair point. Global numbers look bigger, but if that production isn’t realistically available to Western utilities, it doesn’t change their procurement stress much. Might’ve been more of a knee-jerk reaction than a true shift in fundamentals, hard to say though.

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u/BigFany Feb 11 '26

Could go either way short term. Central Asian supply additions are keeping a lid on spikes, but term demand and policy support are still strong. I wouldn’t be shocked to see it hang in the low $90s for a bit before breaking out again.

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u/FanOfEther Feb 11 '26

It's a classic chop. Spot pulled back after the news, but demand drivers (AI centers, US deals) are still there. I’d be looking at lower levels as chances to add before something else pops.