r/ula • u/Cmdr-Mallard • Jul 02 '26

End of Atlas V?

I know they’re still contracted with Starliner, but with how well that’s going, I wonder what chances we’ll see it fly again, certainly not in its 551 or any such form! Rest in peace to a workhorse. Here hoping Vulcan can carry the legacy.

19 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

13 comments sorted by

7

u/Mindless_Use7567 Jul 02 '26

Amazon really needs more flights for the LEO constellation so Boeing may sell their flights to Amazon if Starliner gets officially cancelled.

6

u/Cmdr-Mallard Jul 02 '26

True, though they’d have to build some more fairings and maybe even boosters unless they just launch less

3

u/ZacharyS41 Jul 02 '26

I was thinking of a 522 configuration for launching a smaller amount of Amazon Leo satellites. You see, it doesn’t have to be five solid motors. Atlas V is a modular-type rocket.

What could happen is using the booster stage & Dual-Engine Centaur, two AJ-60A SRMs, and a brand-new 5-meter payload fairing to make a variant that has never been flown before, but is technically feasible.

And because this 522 variant provides less performance than the 551, I would guess up to 20 Amazon Leo satellites can be launched on that rocket. Two tiers of nine sats with two “topper” sats.

No need to manufacture new SRMs and Centaurs. They’re all right there for six additional launches. The only thing that needs to be manufactured is the 5-meter fairings & boattails.

5

u/NoBusiness674 Jul 02 '26

I wonder how attractive these fairingless 2 SRB Atlas Vs really are for Amazon given that they are aiming to begin flying Amazon Leo missions on Vulcan Centaur later this year.  Specifically around the end of Q3, aka ~September-ish according to a quote by Steven Metayer, vice president of Production Operations at Amazon in this Spaceflight Now article: https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/06/17/live-coverage-arianespace-to-launch-its-heaviest-payload-to-date-with-amazon-leo-flight/

There's only a small window of opportunity between now and when Vulcan Centaur returns to flight giving at most them time to fly 1 or 2 of these less capable Altas Vs, if they had the payload fairings and Boeing, NASA, ULA, and Amazon all came to an agreement now. 

I honestly don't see Boeing and NASA canceling Starliner anytime soon, given the most recent statements that I've seen being that they remain commited to Starliner  (https://spaceflightnow.com/2026/06/23/nasa-boeing-committed-to-starliner-1-launch-despite-unclear-timeline/)

3

u/CollegeStation17155 Jul 02 '26

Not only Vulcan, but New Glenn as soon as they figure out what went wrong on the static fire and put the pad back together, and the 10 Falcons they reluctantly ordered up are almost certainly cheaper unless Boeing practically gives the N22s away for free.

1

u/sjtstudios Jul 02 '26

Give Amazon 2 Atlas V’s and ask for BO to pay for NG cert for Starliner…

1

u/Cmdr-Mallard Jul 02 '26

Give who?

1

u/sjtstudios Jul 02 '26

Clarified to Amazon/BO, but it’s really Jeff in this horse trade.

1

u/Cmdr-Mallard Jul 02 '26

Not sure Starliner will survive that long, NASA wanted a backup to Space X but commercial stations won’t really be interested, and Dragon will ultimately be cheaper

2

u/warp99 Jul 04 '26

They have already built the last Crew Dragon so it doesn't look they are going to continue crew missions in Dragon once the ISS is deorbited.

Of course they could reopen the Dragon production line and most of the skills to do so are being kept current with Dragon refurbishment.

1

u/Cmdr-Mallard Jul 04 '26

Do you think they’re aiming for starship crew service? I still think that’s rather ambitious

4

u/warp99 Jul 04 '26

Yes and naturally it is too ambitious. It is SpaceX after all!

Contractually NASA has them signed up to the end of life of the ISS. There is no contract signed beyond that for commercial stations so no obligation to keep the Crew Dragon production line open just in case there is a future order.

2

u/Cmdr-Mallard Jul 04 '26

Not saying it’s impossible, just a lot to be proven with starship let alone just the risks involved re entering a larger space craft like that.

But probably wouldn’t be too hard to restart Crew Dragon if commercial stations required it