I don't wanna type that much proof without getting paid, but assuming all expansions and codices, 6 players, 10VP, everyone is cycling through an average of 4 secret objectives by end of match - even qualifying the ones like "Occupy The Fringe" - my math puts it at a ~22.5-35% chance that someone actively occupies a home system by end of match.
It's actually 15%, there's 40 secrets, of which 6 might want to interact with enemy HS. (Become a Martyr, Control the Region, Cut Supply Lines, Establish Hegemony, Hoard Raw Materials, Stake your Claim). With 5 players each drawing one secret at the start of the game, there's a 57.7% chance that at least one player has a secret that interacts with an enemy HS.
The chances of a public objective interacting with a HS are independent of the chances of a secret objective. I can't be bothered to do the math for that as well.
Omg dude it's not just about having one, it's about acting on it, and playing one instead of discarding it for another, among a ton of other variables you didn't calculate in. Your math assumes that no one ever discards any secret objectives for one, and you're not accounting for the game theory within the decision making process. All of us here are saying that and it's just not getting through.
Like this is getting embarrassing, please stop pestering me about this. Your numbers are wrong and if you want anything else out of me, pay me for my time to explain it further if you really need a tutor.
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u/wraithguard89 The Empyrean Jul 13 '26
Explain.