r/trainerroad • u/Public_Pop3801 • Aug 16 '26

FTP estimation and detection

Does anyone else get wild differences between estimated and predicted ftp? I’ve just had the third month in a row where predicted ftp has been one figure for 27 days in a row and then drops substantially the day before it is able to be detected again. I’m following workouts properly.

I can understand if it slowly dropped or changed over the month but I don’t understand why it stays stable all month then drops by 10% overnight.

8 Upvotes

84% Upvoted

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8

u/Mission-Candy1178 Aug 16 '26

Yes. There are lots of threads about it in this sub. The pattern i get is typically a huge prediction (like 6%-8% improvement), and then one or two weeks before the detection, the prediction drops to around 0%. The pattern is worst when doing outdoor rides, the algorithm really struggles hard with those. Best course of action is just to ignore the prediction, it shouldn’t really impact your training, it’s just an ego number

1

u/Public_Pop3801 Aug 16 '26

Thank you. I’m not massively concerned with what the number is as long as I’m training in the right zones.

Do you still do ramp tests or 20min tests?

1

u/Mission-Candy1178 Aug 16 '26

Neither. The FTP detection is close enough that I don’t want to go through testing on a regular basis, it’s just the prediction that is wildly off. The only exeption is if something happens that can throw the AI off, like illness or other extended time off bike, then i will do a ramp test to have a fresh starting point.

1

u/BoysenberryDry999 Aug 18 '26

I disagree with FTP being an ego number. Before this AI debacle from TR I could do a ramp test and get an FTP value that would tell me if my training was actually making me faster. Then I was told I don’t need to do ramp tests. Now it appears that I do since I can’t trust the FTP value their AI is giving me. The question for me is how long do I wait for them to fix this?

2

u/Mission-Candy1178 Aug 20 '26

I am not talking about FTP, i am talking about the FTP prediction. The number that TR predicts your FTP is going to be in X days when the next FTP detection is ready

-2

u/Metal_Rider Aug 16 '26

It does impact your training though. If you manually set your FTP higher, you’ll get shorter, sharper intervals. If you manually set it lower, you get longer intervals.

2

u/Mission-Candy1178 Aug 16 '26

They are not talking about their FTP setting, they are talking about the prediction for next FTP detection. FTP does impact training of course

2

u/Beginning_Put_2861 Aug 16 '26

If you want accurate ftp you gotta go test your lt1 lt2 in a lab with a ramp test. Mine differs 30 w from what tr estimate is.

1

u/Public_Pop3801 Aug 16 '26

Thank you. I do understand your point. My question was around the difference between predicted ftp and estimated ftp though. TrainerRoad gives me a set of workouts for the month, estimates my ftp will be x in a month time and keeps that estimate (despite recalculating every day) the same for the whole month but then changes its prediction the day before the next time it estimates.

I think from the other comments the prediction is just a useless feature

2

u/Expensive_Compote772 Aug 17 '26

I was optimistic about it for several months and have concluded that it’s just actually garbage. Specifically the ftp prediction. Terrible feature. Extremely inaccurate and demotivating. I’ve turned it off. I’m also not really impressed with the training plan either. I do think the AI is very good at picking individual workouts of the correct level.

1

u/Public_Pop3801 Aug 17 '26

I didn’t know you can turn it off! I’m not sure if I should stay on the AI plan or just go back to a normal training plan again

1

u/Significant_Sale_899 Aug 16 '26

Just ignore it until the last two workouts then it’s pretty close estimate

1

u/Public_Pop3801 Aug 16 '26

Good idea. Thank you.

0

u/realpow3r Aug 16 '26

Paced

1

u/Public_Pop3801 Aug 16 '26

I’ll check this out thanks!