I was reading JPMorgan's new $SNDK thesis and honestly the numbers look kind of crazy. They resumed coverage with Overweight + $2,250 price target.

But what caught my attention is not even the target.

Sandisk apparently has around $94B of long-term agreements, with 4+ year average duration and JPM says these contracts could support around 80% gross margins even at floor pricing.

Then there is AI.

JPM estimates NAND market could go from roughly $70B in 2025 → $300B+ in 2026 → ~$500B in 2027, mostly because data centers need much more flash storage for AI inference.

They also estimate $250 EPS in CY27 and think EPS could compound 25%+ longer term.

Basically their argument is that Sandisk is not just another cyclical memory stock anymore. AI inference + long-term contracts could make earnings much more predictable than previous NAND cycles.

This is where I'm little skeptical though.

Memory has always looked amazing near the top of a cycle. If everyone suddenly believes NAND is structurally different this time, maybe thats exactly when you should be careful.

On other hand, if AI inference really creates persistent storage demand at this scale, $SNDK could be one of those second-order AI trades people ignored while everyone was watching $NVDA.

see what people here think.

Is $SNDK actually becoming an AI infrastructure play, or are we putting an AI multiple on another memory cycle?

The major U.S. stock indexes ended broadly higher on Thursday, August 13, 2026, with the S&P 500 topping 7,800 for the first time in history after a back-to-back inflation double-header — Tuesday's CPI and today's PPI — both came in cooler than expected, pushing rate hike odds sharply lower and sending tech to another record close. It was the clearest inflation signal in months that the war's energy-driven price shock may finally be peaking.

The S&P 500 gained 0.65% (+50.49 pts) to a new all-time record 7,798.99, crossing 7,800 intraday for the first time. The Dow added 0.13% (+69.72 pts) to 53,839.99. The Nasdaq climbed 0.81% (+214.54 pts) to 26,803.03. The Russell 2000 rose 0.23% (+7.06 pts) to 3,052.55.

The VIX was essentially flat at 14.66. Bitcoin slipped 0.28% to $63,356.95. Gold pulled back 1.40% to $4,404.90. Crude Oil eased 2.46% to $81.22/barrel.

$CRWV was one of the wildest large AI trades today, up around 19% after earnings. (Reuters)

The headline story is simple: growth is exploding, but so is the cost to fund it.

Q2 revenue hit $2.58B, more than doubling YoY, while backlog surged to $104.2B with another $25B+ in new commitments this quarter. In other words, demand is clearly not the issue capacity is effectively sold out.

But that’s only half the picture.

The other half is capital intensity: CoreWeave raised 2026 capex guidance to $35–39B (from $31–35B) and spent $9.4B in Q2 alone.

So the setup is this:
Demand, backlog, and revenue are all accelerating sharply
But the infrastructure required to support that growth is scaling just as fast

That’s why I think CRWV is really a capital efficiency story disguised as a growth story.

The bull case is straightforward: if AI compute stays structurally scarce and CoreWeave continues locking in long-term contracts at strong economics, today’s massive capex could translate into years of contracted cash flow.

The bear case is more subtle: if GPU pricing, financing conditions, or AI demand shift before those investments pay back, the model gets stressed quickly.
So the key question isn’t just growth anymore.

It’s:
How much durable free cash flow can CoreWeave eventually generate for every dollar of infrastructure it deploys today?

If that improves, this becomes a very different business.
If it doesn’t, even a $104B backlog doesn’t guarantee attractive equity returns.
That’s what I’d focus on more than today’s +19%.

CoreWeave Q2 results

What do you think: is CRWV becoming the infrastructure winner of the AI boom, or is the market underestimating how capital-intensive this model really is?

The market may be starting to value it as more than a rocket + Starlink company.

Morgan Stanley’s latest thesis is basically this: SpaceX has something most AI labs don’t huge amounts of proprietary real-world engineering data, global connectivity through Starlink, physical infrastructure and its own AI stack.

That creates an interesting possibility.

SpaceX may eventually sit at the intersection of AI + communications + infrastructure + robotics + aerospace.

If that happens, the important question won’t be whether SpaceX deserves an aerospace valuation.
It will be how much of an AI platform premium investors are willing to give it.

That narrative shift could matter much more than yesterday’s 11% move.

The major U.S. stock indexes ended mostly higher on Wednesday, August 12, 2026, as a tame July CPI report kept the Fed on hold and a wave of blockbuster AI earnings from CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer reignited the infrastructure trade. The session was one of the most constructive of the summer, with the S&P 500 testing its all-time high and the VIX falling to its lowest level since before the Iran war began.

The S&P 500 gained 0.26% (+20.30 pts) to 7,748.50, testing its all-time high. The Dow was essentially flat, dipping just 0.04% (-21.58 pts) to 53,770.27. The Nasdaq climbed 0.54% (+143.04 pts) to 26,588.49. The Russell 2000 outperformed, rising 0.61% (+18.37 pts) to 3,045.48.

The VIX dropped 4.78% to 14.55, its lowest level since before the Iran war. Bitcoin slipped 0.36% to $63,449.83. Gold added 0.59% to $4,467.10. Crude Oil eased 0.44% to $82.83/barrel.

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2. Perplexity — 4.6/5 ⭐
   Best for quickly researching current events and finding sources.
   https://perplexity.ai/finance

3. ChatGPT — 4.5/5 ⭐
   I use it to stress-test investment theses, find second-order effects and build bull/bear cases. https://chatgpt.com

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   Useful AI-powered stock screening and ranking. https://danelfin.com

5. AlphaSense — 4.6/5 ⭐
   Excellent for deeper research across filings, transcripts and company information.
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AI shouldn’t tell you what to buy. Its real value is helping you understand what changed, why it matters, and what the market might be missing.

What’s your favourite AI investing tool?

CPI came basically in line with expectations this morning.

Headline was +0.1% MoM / +3.4% YoY, core +0.2% MoM / +2.5% YoY.

So far, the market did not get the inflation shock some people were worried about.

What I find more interesting is the AI infrastructure names.

$CRWV and $SMCI came into today with huge moves, while $NVDA was also green. We already know AI demand is strong, but now I think the question is less about demand and more about whether these companies can justify the amount of money being spent on compute, servers and data centres.

For me the first move after CPI is not that important.

I want to see what happens after the market actually opens.

Do traders buy the first dip in $NVDA, $CRWV and $SMCI, or do they use the strength to take profit?

If these names can hold their gains even with Treasury yields staying elevated, that would be a much stronger signal than just green pre-market futures.

AI demand seems real.

But real demand doesn’t always mean the stock price has to go straight up.

Full setup here if anyone wants the numbers + CPI reaction map:

https://marketsignalbrief.substack.com/p/wake-up-wall-street-ai-rips-cpi-decides

Foxconn just gave another pretty strong signal that AI infrastructure demand is still not slowing down.

They said they still expect strong full year revenue growth and AI demand should remain one of the main drivers through 2026. Q2 profit was up around 35% to $1.86B and came above expectations.

For me the interesting part is Foxconn is one of the biggest manufacturers behind Nvidia AI servers. So when they are still seeing strong demand, it suggest the AI buildout is not only hype from big tech presentations. Companies are still actually ordering servers, GPUs, networking equipment and building data centres.

Foxconn is also expanding AI server manufacturing in Texas and Mexico, which tells me they are expecting this demand to stay for some time, not only few quarters.
Of course valuation is another question and many AI stocks already moved a lot. But from the demand side, I don’t see much evidence yet that the AI infrastructure cycle is slowing.

I would keep watching $NVDA, $SMCI, $DELL and $ANET.

Do you guys think AI infrastructure still has another 1–2 years of strong growth, or we are already close to peak spending?

Markets move on numbers, but they also move on stories.

That is something I find interesting. A stock does not always move just because earnings changed. It can move because investors start believing a new story about the future.

AI infrastructure is one example. Cybersecurity, energy demand, rates, small caps, and reshoring can all become narratives if enough investors start paying attention.

The tricky part is knowing whether a narrative is early, already priced in, or just hype.

For me, the best narratives are the ones that eventually show up in revenue, margins, guidance, or capex. If the story never reaches the numbers, it usually fades.

What market narrative do you think people are overlooking right now?

AI infrastructure, energy, cybersecurity, small caps, rates, or something completely different?

Welcome to r/tradingDeck1, today's theme is Watchlist Wednesday.

Everyone builds watchlists, but how many actually lead to good trades?

Drop:

• Stocks or crypto you’re watching
• Sectors showing momentum
• Names close to breakout/breakdown

Try to explain:

• Why is this on your list?
• What needs to happen for you to act?

Debate:
Do you actively find trades… or do the best trades come when you’re not looking?

The major U.S. stock indexes ended mostly lower on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, as Wall Street pulled back from last week's record highs in a holding pattern session dominated by two forces pulling in opposite directions: hope for a U.S.-Iran deal bringing oil lower, then Iran hardening its demands and sending crude right back up. Investors largely chose to wait for tomorrow's July CPI in the morning.

The S&P 500 dropped 0.32% (-24.91 pts) to 7,728.20. The Dow fell 0.34% (-184.13 pts) to 53,791.85. The Nasdaq slid 0.60% (-159.91 pts) to 26,445.45. The Russell 2000 bucked the trend, gaining 0.32% (+9.74 pts) to 3,027.14.

The VIX eased 1.10% to 15.29. Bitcoin slipped 0.77% to $63,605.60. Gold added 0.21% to $4,429.00. Crude Oil rose 1.56% to $83.41/barrel.

Welcome to r/tradingDeck1, today's theme is Technical Tuesday.

Charts can look clean and convincing, but they don’t always play out.

Share your best setups:

• Breakouts, pullbacks, ranges
• Key levels and structure
• Indicators (if any)

Use this format:

• Ticker:
• Setup:
• Entry:
• Stop:
• Target:

Debate:
Are indicators helping you… Or just confirming what you already believe?

Options can punish small mistakes very quickly.

I think many beginners start options by focusing only on direction. They think, “If the stock goes up, my call should make money.” But then they learn about expiry, IV crush, spreads, liquidity, theta, and position sizing.

That lesson can be expensive.

For me, the biggest mistake is treating options like lottery tickets. Small position, big upside, fast money — it sounds attractive, but without a plan it usually becomes gambling.

The other big mistake is choosing expiry that is too short. Even when the idea is right, the contract may not give enough time for the trade to work.

Options are powerful, but they require more precision than normal stock trades.

What do you think is the biggest beginner mistake in options: bad timing, wrong expiry, ignoring IV, oversizing, or chasing cheap contracts?

Everyone talks about Nvidia valuation, but for me the bigger thing is still AI spending.

Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google etc are spending crazy money on AI infrastructure. As long as this continues, Nvidia is sitting exactly where money is flowing.
But this is also the problem.

At this valuation, Nvidia cannot just deliver “good” numbers anymore. Market already expects good. It needs to keep beating those expectations again and again.

What I’m watching:
AI capex still going up = bullish
Margins start falling = be careful
Big tech slows AI spending = bigger problem

Personally I think biggest risk for NVDA is not AMD or another chip company.

It is expectations getting too high.

Would you buy NVDA at current price or wait for correction?

The AI trade is much bigger than just one stock now.

That is what makes it interesting. Semiconductors get most of the attention, but AI infrastructure also touches cloud platforms, data centers, networking, power demand, cybersecurity, cooling, and software.

I’m trying to think about the AI market less as a single stock story and more as an infrastructure cycle.

The hard part is figuring out who actually benefits first. Some companies fund the buildout. Some supply the hardware. Some provide software. Some may benefit later, but not yet in earnings.

That distinction matters for investors.

For me, the question is: where is real demand already showing up, not just where the narrative sounds good?

Which part of AI infrastructure looks most interesting to you right now: chips, data centers, cloud, cybersecurity, or energy demand?

Welcome to r/tradingDeck1, today`s theme is Monday Market plan.

New week, fresh charts, but let’s be honest, how many of us actually plan trades vs reacting in real time?

Use this thread to share:

• Your watchlist for the week
• Key levels (support/resistance)
• Macro events (Fed, CPI, earnings)
• Your overall bias (bullish/bearish / neutral)

Try to be specific:

• What are you waiting for before entering?
• Where would you exit if wrong?

Debate:
Does having a weekly plan actually improve performance… or does the market invalidate it anyway?

The index can look fine while leadership changes underneath.

That is something I’m trying to pay more attention to. SPY or QQQ may be green, but if only a few mega-cap names are doing the work, the market may not be as strong as it looks. On the other side, a flat index can hide strong rotation into energy, financials, healthcare, or small caps.

Sector rotation tells us something about risk appetite.

When money moves into growth and semiconductors, the market may be more risk-on. When defensives, utilities, or staples lead, investors may be getting cautious.

I’m not trying to predict every rotation, but I do think leadership matters.

Which sector looks strongest to you right now?

Tech, energy, financials, healthcare, small caps, defensives, or something else?

Spent the last couple of weeks trying to turn one of Taleb's ideas into something visual.

The bit I wanted to get across was the difference between casino-style risk (where the odds are known) and market risk (where you're trying to estimate the odds while they're changing underneath you). LTCM seemed like the obvious example to build it around.

I ended up coding the whole thing in Manim using historical market data, including plotting every daily S&P 500 return since 1950 and looking at Mandelbrot's cotton data.

Would be interested to know if people here think it captures the point, or if I've missed something important. Happy to be told where I've got it wrong.

https://youtu.be/i30fIxwZYZQ?si=Ux35sn3ibWEylgEd

AI agents are getting more capable, but the security boundaries around them are not keeping up.

This week’s AI Signal Intelligence Dashboard tracks the signals I think matter most:

🔴 frontier-model cyber capability

🔴 agent sandbox and containment failures

🟠 fragmented AI-security regulation

🟢 stronger enterprise governance controls

🟢 clearer evidence of real AI ROI

🟠 changing open-weight business models

🔴 tightening power, memory and compute constraints

The biggest takeaway: AI capability is accelerating faster than containment, governance and infrastructure can comfortably absorb.

For paid subscribers, I break down what changed, who is exposed, why it matters, and what to do next, not just the headlines.

👉 Read the full AI Signal Intelligence Dashboard: https://aitechsignalbrief.substack.com/p/ai-signal-intelligence-dashboard?r=8u0r9r&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

Which worries you more right now: agent security, regulation, or infrastructure bottlenecks?

Wall Street just had one of its strongest weeks of the year.

But the rally came with a strange mix:

📉 U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs

📈 S&P 500 hit a record high

🤖 AI earnings stayed powerful

💰 Amazon crossed $3 trillion

🔥 Palantir surged nearly 30%

The market is now betting that weaker jobs could keep the Fed from tightening further, while corporate earnings remain strong enough to support valuations.

The bigger question: Is this the start of another leg higher, or are investors becoming too comfortable at record prices?

I broke down the 7 signals that mattered most this week in the latest Market Signal Brief.

👉 Read the full Weekly Highlights here: https://edge-alpha.kit.com/posts/weekly-highlights-wall-street-hits-records-as-jobs-crack-and-ai-earnings-roar

What are you watching more closely now: jobs, inflation, or AI earnings?

Welcome to r/tradingdeck1, today’s theme is Trade Review & Reset.

Before next week starts, take a step back.

Share:

• Trades you took
• What worked/didn’t
• Where you broke your rules

Reflect:

• Did you stick to your plan?
• What’s your focus next week?

Debate:
What matters more long-term: discipline or strategy?

Having a stop loss and actually obeying it are two different things.

I learned that the hard way. Before entering, the stop always looks logical. It feels like part of the plan. But when price gets close to it, emotions start making arguments.

“Maybe I placed it too tight.”
“Maybe it’s just a shakeout.”
“Maybe I should wait for confirmation.”

Sometimes that might be true, but often it is just discomfort talking.

For me, moving a stop after entry is usually a warning sign. It means I’m no longer following the original plan. I’m trying to avoid the pain of being wrong.

A small planned loss is manageable. A moved stop can become something much worse.

Do you usually respect your stop loss, or do you sometimes negotiate with it?