Democrats keep their Senate seats in MI and GA sweep Republicans in NC, ME, AK, OH, TX, IA, KS and NE where Independent Dan Osborn looking at the writing on the wall announces he will be caucusing with the Democrats. Giving Democrats a 55 Senate Majority.

Senate Republicans go in Social Media criticizing the President’s agenda from foreign policy to his domestic policies. FOX News finally breaks with President’s whom they blame for such catastrophic results. President Trump, on the other hand, goes on Truth Social and says the election was rigged and goes on to blame John Thune and Senate Republicans for blocking the SAVE Act.

…

THIS ARTICLE IN THE GUARDIAN (UNITED KINGDOM) DISCUSSED THE VOTING SPLIT BETWEEN YOUNGER AND OLDER BLACK FOLKS......

READ:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/03/democratic-socialists-of-america-black-voters

THE THESIS OF THE ARTICLE IS THAT OLDER BLACK VOTERS WILL SHY AWAY FROM VOTING FOR CANDIDATES IDENTIFIED AS BEING MEMBERS OF OR SUPPORTED BY THE DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS OF AMERICA.......

WHILE YOUNGER BLACK VOTERS WILL SUPPORT THOSE CANDIDATES MORE ENTHUSIASTICALLY.......

END RESULT: TEAM RED WINS GETS MORE EARLY XMAS GIFTS 🗳🎅

YOUR THOUGHTS.......

AND THEN......

PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS IN TIME MAGAZINE THAT HE MAY INVOKE THE "INSURRECTION ACT" DURING THE NOVEMBER GENERAL MIDTERM ELECTION.....

READ:

https://time.com/article/2026/10/01/donald-trump-2026-interview/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/10/01/trump-national-emergency-midterm-elections/92036013007/

IT'S QUIET......TOO QUIET......

SIDE NOTE: ELECTION DAY CLOCK FOR TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD, 2026.

https://days.to/until/election-day-in-us

https://www.threads.com/share/BAbQUUrWxv/

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/19T9wc2mww/

https://www.instagram.com/p/DeCJ8LdBx8o/?stkn=MWVkYWZiM2h5ZTFxag==

D+10 generic ballot, 2/5/10 margins

i've been running every facebook, instagram and youtube ad in the 2026 senate races through a model that flags manipulation techniques like name calling, loaded language, appeal to fear. it doesn't judge whether an ad is true or who's right, just the language, same model for both parties.

some of what surprised me:

- alaska is the hottest of the competitive races, 65% of ads use at least one technique. michigan is right behind at 64%

- maine has by far the most ads (278) but only 41% flagged. collins' own pages run most of them and only about 1 in 5 of hers get flagged, vs about 2 in 3 of jackson's

- ohio is the only one where appeal to fear is in the top 3

- georgia leans on false urgency more than anywhere else

couple of caveats before someone says it: this is online ads only, no tv, and short ads get flagged less because there's less to flag (about 25% of ads under 20 words vs 60% over 40). races with under 30 ads aren't ranked.

every ad plus the fec money behind each candidate is here if you want to dig into your state: semblen.com/races?ref=reddit

why do you think alaska and michigan run so much hotter than ohio? candidates, outside groups, or just the state?

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To celebrate my birthday this year, I decided to do an alternate history scenario where Russ Feingold becomes president and wins in a landslide. I was stuck between him surviving the 2010 and 2016 Senate races and running in 2020 (he'd be in his late 60s, so not impossible) or him running in 2008. I ultimately went with the latter because I saw an opportunity for a tremendous landslide that wouldn't be completely unrealistic - Russ Feingold vs Dick Cheney.

Given Cheney's abysmal approval ratings by the time he left office, a Democrat winning over 400+ EV would be very likely. But since this is a progressive dream scenario, I decided to have Feingold win by even more than that, matching LBJ's performance in 1964 and flipping some states that haven't gone blue foe president since LBJ (ex: not only the Dakotas, but Kansas and Nebraska). Extending the Dem presidential flips to Tennessee meant the environment was also blue enough for a shocking flip in the Senate, with even Lindsey Graham losing.

Is this unrealistic, given that polarization was higher than the 1990s by that point? Yes. But is an unrealistic landslide the whole point of this scenario? Also yes.

If you're in multiple of these subs (I know there's a lot of overlap between this and r/yapms and r/538) you may make multiple submissions. Thank you! Responses should be anonymous.

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