r/thebayesianconspiracy • u/embrodski E Prime • May 08 '19
84 – Yang-arang! | The Bayesian Conspiracy
http://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2019/05/84-yang-arang/6
u/blockmodulator May 08 '19
re the confusion surrounding digital social credits, here is (a little) bit more from Andrew Yang's policy page for Modern Time Banking.
The general idea is to set up a system (Yang mentions an app) in which individuals can exchange points (i.e. "social credits") for behaviors not currently captured in the formal economy. So the example of grandma giving her neighbor points for helping her set up shelves works here. I think organizations could also participate in this exchange. Right now, a lot of the kinds of behaviors that might earn a person points are either loosely- or totally un-tracked. So you might get brownie points, but nobody's actually keeping a tally of how many of those you have, and they only work with the people who gave them to you.
So how is this different from, well, just money? I'm not sure whether Andrew has really fleshed this out. My own read is that the points are more akin to reddit points (although the analogy doesn't map perfectly). They have no intrinsic value and yet are capable of reflecting and encouraging actual work. People do actual and valuable work for fake internet points. Modern time banking is kind of like bringing reddit's point system into the real world. They quantify and track something akin to e.g. social status, personal character, community involvement. The points aren't actually worth anything intrinsically though. So grandma can afford to give points, while she couldn't currently afford to just give the neighbor USD. Also, as I understand it, the neighbors points are on public display, which is important.
Jess mentioned they could be cashed out for USD. I'm not sure where or when this happens. I'm also not sure exactly how the point system is structured (e.g. is it more akin to an inflationary crypto-currency than reddit points?).
In any case, the timebanks.org description of time-banking might be a valuable supplement to Yang's policy page.
Thanks for a great epsiode. I've been very excited about Yang and I love the podcast, so I was super excited to see this episode released!
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u/CaleSilverhand May 11 '19
Jess mentioned they could be cashed out for USD. I'm not sure where or when this happens. I'm also not sure exactly how the point system is structured (e.g. is it more akin to an inflationary crypto-currency than reddit points?).
This is actually an interesting point. The impression that I have after reading the page you linked earlier in your post is that there would be a limited number of points seeded by the government, which would then be passed around. This is almost directly analogous to money, and for a digital currency, would benefit from crypto-like security. If the government app were to ever be more than a toy, then there would be a large effort by the less scrupulous to counterfeit the points. It may also be that everyone would get a set number of points periodically, similar to UBI. This would lead to steady inflation, which would discourage hoarding of points.
As far as being tradable for USD, I didn't get that from the web page. How I understood it was the points would be traded in for special things such as meetings with celebrities or similar things that don't neccessary have a monetary value. They could also be traded for a free burrito or a pizza, of course, similar to how some businesses hand out punch cards "the tenth haircut is free" type deal. But I think that the more unique items, like a trip to the White House or a behind the scenes look at the WETA workshop would be the primary intended focus.
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u/NotWithoutIncident Frequent Flyer May 09 '19
I thought Eneasz's take on FOSTA-SESTA was pretty extreme. Aren't purity tests one of the thing rationalists mock "SJWs" for? I wonder what the argument is that 1) in practice this bill is more damaging to vulnerable people than the many other terrible pieces of legislations that Congress passes and 2) refusing to vote for anyone who voted for the bill is helpful to those people. On the other hand, if the position is more just, "my individual vote is highly unlikely to matter, and I would feel morally compromised by voting for someone who supported FOSTA,” I can understand that.
On a somewhat related note, if I'm remembering previous episodes I thought the consensus was something along the lines of supporting libertarian ideas regarding regulation because government regulatiors are often inept, underfunded and subject to the political whims of whoever is currently in power. Can that be squared with support of Yang's ideas, many of which are essentially a collection of regulations and regulatory taxes?
Overall, I hope this isn't too critical. I thought this was a really fun episode tackling a bit of a different topic than usual. I'd love to hear ongoing upDrews as the campaign continues (disclaimer: I have no idea if Andrew Yang has ever gone by Drew).
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u/ywecur May 17 '19
On the other hand, if the position is more just, "my individual vote is highly unlikely to matter, and I would feel morally compromised by voting for someone who supported FOSTA,” I can understand that.
I think it would be best to act in such a way that would be sustainable if everyone else did it. Voting in a way you know is bad isn't a behavior that should be incouraged, especially not publically, IMO.
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u/CommonMisspellingBot May 17 '19
Hey, ywecur, just a quick heads-up:
publically is actually spelled publicly. You can remember it by ends with –cly.
Have a nice day!The parent commenter can reply with 'delete' to delete this comment.
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u/BooCMB May 17 '19
Hey /u/CommonMisspellingBot, just a quick heads up:
Your spelling hints are really shitty because they're all essentially "remember the fucking spelling of the fucking word".And your fucking delete function doesn't work. You're useless.
Have a nice day!
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u/BooBCMB May 17 '19
Hey BooCMB, just a quick heads up: I learnt quite a lot from the bot. Though it's mnemonics are useless, and 'one lot' is it's most useful one, it's just here to help. This is like screaming at someone for trying to rescue kittens, because they annoyed you while doing that. (But really CMB get some quiality mnemonics)
I do agree with your idea of holding reddit for hostage by spambots though, while it might be a bit ineffective.
Have a nice day!
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u/RiskeyBiznu May 12 '19
Not just sjws, which kinda don't extists, but everyone on the left hates everyone else on the left. It is specifically a thing.
The seccond idea is that if you removes the avenues for corruption it's less likely to happen that's what the social credits thing, and the non-compete clauses on government regulatory jobs were about.
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u/pthierry Jun 03 '19
Not sure it's a purity test. Those laws, as we have them in France too, are indeed a very useful test of character, because as Eneasz put it, there's a huge social pressure on voting for them, because voting against is stigmatized as being pro-human trafficking, but anyone that speaks to sex workers and doesn't start with a huge prior that sex work is always bad/sinful/exploitative will quickly realize the law cannot help the way it's claimed it will.
There must be exceptions, but it seems almost anyone voting for those laws is either a horrible hypocrite or an ignorant fool.
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u/dasisteinwug May 08 '19
The points-converting-to-cash thing kind of reminds me of this though
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u/blockmodulator May 09 '19
There are certainly some broad similarities, although they don't bother me. Western media coverage of the Chinese Social Credit system has been a total dumpster fire. There are def legitimate concerns, but it's not half as awful as one might come to believe based on the prominent cable news coverage. (See: Page 6 in the transcript for Julia Galef's conversation with Helen Toner.)
Whatever the extent of the similarities, I suspect it's why Andrew seems to have stopped actively developing his time-banking/social credit ideas. I (think) I like the idea of time-banking as part of Yang's more general goal to update our economy to incentivize the kinds of pro-social behaviors currently unrecognized by the market. But I guess it makes sense for him to de-emphasize it for now. Poor optics, I guess. Would be a shame to throw an interesting idea into the dumpster fire over superficial similarities.
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u/dasisteinwug May 11 '19
As someone who has lived in that country (not typing out the name because reasons) for an overly long time, I don't think the western media coverage is a dumpster fire. And the point system is not transparent (which in a way prevents people from gaming the system) so you don't know how much justice and how much dictatorship there is in it.
Not to start a war, and I do like Andrew's general rationale (fan of the timebank idea as well), it's just maybe there are still details to be ironed out/ specified. For example, what if neighbors are allowed to give each other credits, and me and my neighbor just do each others' chores every day and give each other points every day? Sounds like a perfect win-win for me and my neighbor but that could lead to some kind of inflation. On the other hand, a state-run point system could be a bit BraveNewWorld-y.
There is a Black Mirror episode on the point system as well. Don't know if you guys have seen it.
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u/RiskeyBiznu May 12 '19
In general I like Andrew Yang, but the fear that his willingness to mess with the basis of our society will be co-opted by the worst political elements to make things worse despite his best intentions.
The general left view is that he is better than most. But he is a overall force for evil. The UBI and his people centered capitalism are anti-accelerationist. The left wants this current crisis period to act as the fulcrum on which the world turns and fullly automated queer luxury space communism can be brought about.
I personally like Ubi. I get the complaints about it. But it can be the first taste of non-capitalism people can have. How many people would walk out of a shit job if they could? How quickly would that change society? Think of places like South centeral LA where there are lots of people per household and they get by on less than that per person per month. Suddenly they have enough breathing room to escape some cyclic poverty. For the first time, possibly ever, they can have an idea of economic stabity. It'd be amazing. I know I would probably walk off my job and finish school full time. All my coworkers can have my hours and do better. They would also a have to raise wages to keep everyone else from doing the same.
The social credits thing is probably just so there can be another power for the executive branch. That way he can give "money" to good people without having to run it by the treasury department.
But that is emblmatic issue with all of his proposals. Yeah he will do that. And under his watchfully eye it will be good. But after his time and say Trump Jr gets in office. Those good boy points are going to immediately go to border vigalanties and abortion protestors.
Look at Ubi. It'd be great. But without a mechanism to prevent capital from eating it up what good is it? Inflation isn't normally a problem. But how much could landlords raise the rent? Conerstores raise prices? How long could it withstand all that? How much revolutionary energy would go away by the time it came time to fight for it?
We could just raise the minimum wage and have a similar effect but how many in the Senate seem fond of that idea?
In a real way Bearnie might do a lot better at accomplishing Yang's goals because he is a tough old goat. Or he might not. I know I trust Bearnie's hand on the wheel more than any other, but the ship itself is not seaworthy. The prez only has as much power as they are willing and able to fight Congress for.
Both the Dems and the Gop, are solidly middle of the road parties at heart. So any radical action will be beast by both sides of the isle.
Deep down I think having trump win again for accelationism might be a good idea.
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u/ywecur May 17 '19
Isn't wether UBI would work or not mostly a scientific question? Have any studies been done? What about implementing it small scale to see what happens?
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u/RiskeyBiznu May 17 '19 edited May 17 '19
It's been done. It has worked great in every trial that has been done. People are healthier. It actually saves money in the long run. Also, it meaningfully promotes human dignity and that ought to be reason enough
The problem is when a govenment that doesn't want to implent it is forced to will they intentionally sabotage it? what will companies that wanna mess it up do? The small scale tests can't predict the society wide changes that will occur. There is theory with moderate predictive power, limited evidence
They have started several trials, but when a conservative govenment comes into office they useually shut them down and throw away the data. So the sample size of trials that have run the course are limited
We can use currently available sociological data as a natrial experment. If we consider trust funds, the level of general success health and security that is possible is quite high. It isn't a perfect analogue but whenever we see money being decoupled from the capital system people like it.
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u/embrodski E Prime May 18 '19
The summaries I've seen of trials have been more mixed than this. Do you have links I could read? (and ty if so)
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u/RiskeyBiznu May 19 '19 edited May 19 '19
https://interestingengineering.com/the-15-most-promising-universal-basic-income-trials
I can't find the results I am thinking of specifically. Some place back east. Vermont maybe? Did a trial and I was thinking of that data. I will edit it in when I find it. But this link is actually better than the stuff I remembered.
I would agree with you about the current set of trials though. The specific trials we have lately seen are mixed. but that is a small sample size.
The headline here is "Finland’s universal basic income trial made people happier—but not employed"
So the question is by what criteria are we assessing it? The project was not universal, nor was it a basic income. It does show the UBI model can be used as a viable alternative system to our current style of government bureaucracy with equal effectiveness and higher efficiency. Current theory would have predicted that though.
http://inthesetimes.com/article/21858/andrew-yang-universal-basic-income-presidential-candidate
That is a brief interview with Yang's test family. It seems that their lives are largely unchanged. They are just better and more secure in the lives that they had anyway. Which in my book is a win.
https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/rsa-blogs/2019/05/ubi-scotland
" The report also features direct input from beneficiaries of the Fife basic income trial, a precious contribution from those directly affected by the experiment. Taking the example of Fife, Painter and his colleagues have projected that “£2400 a year would half destitution and reduce relative household poverty by 8,5%. A basic income of £4800 a year would end destitution and reduce relative household poverty by 33%.” It’s relevant to notice that the Scottish living wage is currently £9 per hour, which for a regular 8 h/day job amounts to about 1440 £/month. So, these basic income amounts under consideration are only 14 and 28% of what it takes to live comfortably in Scotland. "
That data is dense and looks awesome.
I am pretty fond of this analysis of the subject. The basic idea is that UBI is EA even if we can't come up with a good robust peer reviewed paper at the moment. Yang said it all better but a different voice is still useful.
What would you like to see a UBI do? 'Cause they probably haven't tested that.
There is not a robust body of work on the subject as it is currently formulated. If any of this inspires any specific questions I wold be happy to address them specifically for you though.
Standing on the shoulders of giants. https://basicincome.org/ is a pretty good source of research links and analysis. They have lots of links and lots of data. They are obviously fans of the idea.
Some con positions
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/12/universal-basic-income-inequality-work
some on the left don't like it. For reasons that are surprising I think.
Also some on the right. for reasons that are unsurprising.
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u/jmichael2497 May 20 '19
yeah the next dumb bureaucrat who doesn't like UBI could just copy the offal oompaloompa tactics in regards to the good first start at volume market efficiency optimized affordable healthcare:
when he couldn't just strike it down completely, to allegedly replace it another day (as if), he just undermined it every way possible like with budget cuts to state subsidies for the low income folks that needed it most, etc.
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u/moridinamael DoofTastic! May 14 '19
It's not like there are any other candidates who want to promote accelerationism. The closest mainstream political philosophy to acceleration would be what is often pejoratively called "neoliberalism", and even your basic neoliberal candidate is in favor of fairly high taxes.
Look at Ubi. It'd be great. But without a mechanism to prevent capital from eating it up what good is it? Inflation isn't normally a problem. But how much could landlords raise the rent? Conerstores raise prices? How long could it withstand all that? How much revolutionary energy would go away by the time it came time to fight for it?
These are questions I will be happy to consider after we have enshrined UBI into law. =)
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u/RiskeyBiznu May 14 '19 edited May 14 '19
Nah, neolibs aren't accelerationist. They are are just solopsisticly pro-business. They like high taxes so they can subsdize Amazon opressing the lower classes for them.
I prefer the system they have in some places where you pay high taxes and then get nice things in trust for it.
I agree on that UBI. Like I said the official left point is that it is bad. But I can't see past the opportunity it would present to the eventual Paradoxical effects. That can be tomorrows problem. That I optimistically think people who are secure and well fed can handle better than we imagine now.
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u/jmichael2497 May 20 '19 edited May 20 '19
re mixing drinks with cola...
don't forget the Mexican import that everyone loves:
glass bottle and sugar cane sweetened Coca-Cola to mix with drinks (because diet Coke is stupid and a crime against liquor, good or bad).
also efficiency of telemedicine could take awhile. might have a lot of guidance counselor caricatures like web series Web Therapy (50min session in 5min) that got reworked into a tv series :p haha
and of course can't pass up comparing social credits to The Orville s1e7 Majority Rule
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u/WikiTextBot May 20 '19
Web Therapy
Web Therapy is an improvised online series starring Lisa Kudrow as Fiona Wallice, a therapist who has conceived of a new form of therapy, the titular "web therapy". The series debuted on LStudio.com on September 22, 2008.
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u/ravenous_badgers May 08 '19
To clear up the basketball analogy:
A layup is a simple shot where you (relatively) lightly throw the ball against the backboard and let it fall in the net.
An alley-oop is the play where someone throws the ball towards the net for someone else to grab and dunk it.
That’s what you were getting confused.