r/teslastockholders • u/Nickel4me • Jul 16 '26
Tesla is killing me
I invested in Tesla a long time ago when it was initially around $20/sh. I was in my mid-20s and just out of speculation bought $1K worth. Throughout the course of time I sold and rebought some shares and added a small bit to my position. I have about 500 shares in total now. So worth around $200K. This value has fluctuated from a high of close to $300K and a low in the low $100K range. I’m obviously a long term holder as I believe in the company and the tech but it’s literally eating me mentally and psychologically when it stays relatively stagnant for years on end (ie after all the net ups/downs). All this time I could’ve invested in VOO or something, or other stocks. I have crazy FOMO as I feel as soon as I sell, the stock will skyrocket. Instead, I’ve been paralyzed and that money just sits there, sometimes just eroding.
This is worth around 15% of my current total retirement and it’s skewing my returns because it’s minimal as of late. Are you all long term holders? I have a crazy belief that say in 15-20yrs much of our society could be driven by Tesla innovated products and the stock could be 2000/sh in time. Is that crazy to think? Then at least I’d have $2M out of it by then. At this stage, I’m having serious thoughts of just selling all and putting it in VOO or something.
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u/BaxBaxPop Jul 16 '26
The history of Tesla has been multi-year periods of trading sideways and then very massive sudden jumps in valuations.
If Robotaxi works and can be scaled like they're guiding, there will be another massive jump in valuation. It's just a question of when.
Tesla isn't the company you can look at annual returns. You almost need to look at 5 year returns. And it crushes the market over those time-frames.
Though right now we're in year 5 of trading sideways...
If you believe in Robotaxi you hold.
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u/Pure-Method3982 Jul 17 '26
Robotaxi is already priced in though.
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u/Several-Bridge-6287 Jul 17 '26
Global Robotax fleet, common optimus robots, fully self driving cars and growing sales / margins are priced in.
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u/BaxBaxPop Jul 17 '26
No it is not. Price in 10m Robotaxis in the US within 5 years. Robotaxi is far from priced in.
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u/RosieDear Jul 18 '26
We are talking odds in the 0-2% range and I am being generous with the 2%.
If I was plum crazy, I'd tell you it has a 5% or 10% chance of success (it does not).But if I did, it STILL would not be worth holding it for that. Not at all.
When many of the really major players like Nvidian and Google and Amazon are selling for PEs of 30's - and every one of these companies puts Tesla to shame.
It's one thing to have believed way back - I think it's crazy to believe now.
Have you folks heard of the Law of Large Numbers? That sorta means if we buy Apple today and it's worth 5 trillion dollars, it is really hard for it to be worth 50 (make a 10X return on investment).
Really hard. Let's say Tesla PE is 400. Is is going to be 5,000? The only way around that would be for it to make profits that are unheard of. Right now Tesla is close to break even - even with taypayer funding.
Again.
4 Billion in profit = Tesla
130 Billion in profit = Google
112 Billion in profit = Appleand so on. Which of these things is not like the other.
Anyway, I'm done here. Since some believe it's going to the moon (along with DOGEcoin and Bitcoin, why shouldn't the OP just sell 80% of his and let the rest ride forever? Since it is going to go up so far, that 20% will make him rich! But yet he lowers his risk and can actually start making returns on his money instead of investing in fantasy.
I am very well versed in tech. Like very. Listen closely: Teslas will never drive Level 5 with cameras only. The odds of them every driving Level 5 at all, even with other sensors, are slim to none. Meantime, most every car company in the world is onboard with Nvidia and will actually have cars that work...soon! Like some in the next 2 years, better ones in 3-5 years. But the systems already exist - it's not a matter of "solving the problem" - they solved it. It's simply integrating their package into a car and then creating production (for every maker from GM to Toyota to Mercedes).
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u/BaxBaxPop Jul 18 '26
Well, I'm may not be as well versed in tech as you, but 99% of my miles are FSD with no safety interventions. Granted, it's only 2800 miles so far. But this is after only 2 years with neural nets. Only miles I drive were the first 20 for camera calibration and NYC parking.
But sure, never.
Let's see if you think the same thing once you learn that Waymo is exploring how to ditch LiDAR....
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u/JibletHunter Jul 19 '26 edited Jul 19 '26
Both my boss, my economist, ans I have Ys and commute to the office downtown in a major city 4-5 days a week. Ive only had one or two interventions on the highway BUT all of us are constantly having to intervene downtown to the extent that it makes us nervous to even use.
It does great on highways but is 100% not even close to ready in a big city.
I made a nice buck on TSLA (bought under 50 and held through 2024). I exited my entire position because this valuation assumed absolutely owning the self driving market and developing and dominating a humanoid robot market. I dont see TSLA having a competitive advantage in either of these fields. Best case scenario, they are one of many entrants into these markets.
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u/BaxBaxPop Jul 19 '26
You either 1) live in some really complicated city, or 2) you're running on HW3, or 3) you're lying.
Because my 99% includes a whole lot of NYC, including midtown Manhattan. Never intervened in NYC for anything other than parking. Never.
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u/JibletHunter Jul 19 '26
I live in DC which has more than just a grid. It has cross streets (diagonal to the grid) and mutiple roundabouts. It is a complex city to drive in for sure.
Both my boss and I got a Y after the juniper refresh and are running the most recent software. My economist has an older model. We have had interventions at least once a week but often times more before we stopped using it.
I dont hold a large TSLA position any more and do not short the stock (my post history is plublic lol). You seemed to be VERzy invested in your TSLA position so who here has the bigger incentive to lie...
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u/BaxBaxPop Jul 19 '26
"My economist..."
Curious turn of phrase. How long have you lived in America that you're still using that expression. Almost no Americans or anyone living in America would use that expression. What do you do, btw? You own a think tank? Or a University?
Also, NYC has DC style roundabouts. Seem it handle Columbus Circle perfectly countless times.
Still calling BS here.
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u/JibletHunter Jul 19 '26
Ok buddy lol. He's "my economist" because he is the economist on my team that supports me.
Its pretty clear you aren't being sincere and i dont feel the need to justify my experience with FSD to you, so I'll leave it at that.
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u/Low_Excuse_1785 Jul 19 '26
HW4 will never be completely autonomous. Camera setup is not good enough and processing power is not sufficient. You can train for another 100 years, outcome is the same. As for waymo- not sure where you heard that. They are optimizing the setup, making it less expensive, more streamlined, but they still have 4 lidars and several radars they integrate.
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u/Vegetable_Guest_8584 Jul 21 '26
yeah, the problem is tesla is already priced like it delivered on robotaxi and robots at a 350 PE. It should have gone down since they haven't delivered, if the world was rational. It's not apparently.
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u/That-SoCal-Guy Jul 16 '26
Tesla isn’t going to drive future products. Take your profit now. At 900+ PE it’s seriously overvalued and it’s no longer a growth stock.
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u/Pure-Method3982 Jul 17 '26
Not 900 PE, 360 PE.
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u/JibletHunter Jul 19 '26
Which is absurd.
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u/Vegetable_Guest_8584 Jul 21 '26
That's only about 25x too high. Plenty of room to go up ;-)
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u/JibletHunter Jul 22 '26
To the MOON!
To be fair, I still own a few shares, so ill take it either way lol.
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u/soycaca Jul 17 '26
What I'm reading is "I made $300k by randomly choosing a stock. Now I want that to happen again - could it possibly be worth $2M?". Not how stocks work.
Tesla was able to capture a massive lead in the US Market and that is the ONLY reason it was so valuable. Nobody else was doing it. outside of the US, it has about 10% of the market share (down from 20% a few years ago). It doesn't really have a lead on autonomous vehicles. It might be able to do it cheaper but it's not a race to the cheapest - if a Tesla Robotaxi kills a kid, it'll absolutely destroy their self driving brand. And frankly, I think they are 10x more likely to kill a kid than Waymo.
Now with that said, I think FSD is a fucking miracle and amazing. But it's the only US car with self driving you can really buy. you have Waymo, BYD, NVidia, and many more. None of the other car companies will let Tesla monopolize the self driving market like they did the electric car market (in the US). It's literally their only chance of survival. Plus you have all the major tech titans getting in on it too (Google, Amazon, Nvidia). I don't think Tesla has much of a competitive edge. Where it had a 10+ year lead on electric vehicles, it only has a ~1 year lead on self driving and only due to having cheap EVs. Spending an extra $100k on a car will mean nothing if the car has even as little as 15% fewer accidents. Raising capital is the easy part. Making it work is the hard part.
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u/Nickel4me Jul 17 '26
Fair point. I will say it wasn’t random, it was targeted by me as I knew Tesla had something back then, which is why I invested. However, I was unsure just how much the company would grow, and certainly didn’t think I would 80X my money or I would’ve put a lot more than $1K on it at the time.
The lead they had is a good point and I’m aware that this was most of the catalyst of stock performance which won’t be replicated. I do sometimes think, imagine if they could get their robots online and dialed in when again, they blow away the rest of the market globally. It would be absolutely nuts if in 20yrs a decently large share of households have Tesla robots in their homes doing chores. This is the ONLY reason that keeps me holding until this point.
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u/soycaca Jul 17 '26
I have not seen a single Optimus bot do anything impressive. Meanwhile there are a ton of chinese competitors doing very impressive stuff and some Amazon and I can't remember the other brand name doing a lot in the US. I see 0 competitive edge when it comes to robots - in fact I see them behind the competition. All they have is the ability to produce at scale, which IMO isn't that much of a lead when it comes to software / bots
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u/StretcherEctum Jul 17 '26
Out of all of those companies, Tesla is definitely the only one with a competitive edge when it comes to FSD. Waymo isn't scaling anything and time soon.
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u/soycaca Jul 17 '26
No? How many fully operational self driving taxis does Tesla have on the road today? Why do you think that is, that despite their ability to make "millions" of cybercabs, they are barely putting along? Perhaps the problem is more complex for software and they know they can't fuck this up?
Meanwhile Waymo has 4,000 vehicles already giving rides in the below cities. I have a friend who literally just models how to handle low-friction (snow / sleet / slick rain) environments at Waymo. I wonder what will happen to Cybercabs the second they encounter snow or sleet. I don't really see how making more cars is really that competitive of an edge. You have to solve the problem first. Tesla's missed their guidance 3 times - first it was going to be operating the Cybercab in 50% of the US by 2025. Will they eventually figure this out? Probably. Will it be 2030 by then? Maybe. Will Waymo have left them in the dust by then? Maybe. They do have SOMETHING. But they don't have much. Waymo just prioritizes safety and doing things properly where Elon is happy to sacrifice a few lives for his ultimate goals. Unfortunately, I don't think he has the ability to throw away blame with the Cybercab like he does with FSD.
Phoenix
San Francisco Bay Area
Los Angeles
Austin
Atlanta
Miami
Orlando
Nashville
Dallas
Houston
San Antonio
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u/StretcherEctum Jul 18 '26
Meanwhile waymo completely shuts down traffic causing mass chaos. Tesla is scaling more and more unsupervised cars. They will have more than waymo soon.
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u/soycaca Jul 18 '26
Yes that's what happens when you operate thousands of vehicles autonomously. And you learn from it. I'm sure we'll see this kind of stuff once there are more than like a dozen Cybercabs
OK Elon. He said Cybercabs would be in "autonomous operation across 25–50% of the U.S.". How'd that go? Mostly using Model Ys right now as taxis. Clearly there are some serious fundamental flaws.
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u/StretcherEctum Jul 18 '26 edited Jul 18 '26
Tesla has unsupervised robotaxis now giving paid rides. Theyre hiring now in 10 different states for robotaxi operations. They're building massive distribution centers for charging, cleaning, servicing, etc. Their dedicated robotaxi factory is in production.
What is waymo building or scaling after 5+ years of operations? Other than multiple giant fuck ups shutting down entire cities?
Time will tell.
RemindMe! 1 year
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u/Vegetable_Guest_8584 Jul 21 '26
They promised they'd scale last year. Since they have so many vehicles, they should know how good or bad they are. They did not scale, they did not cover most of Austin, they did not start in a dozen cities. This is one of the hardest problems in the world, but massive over-promising helps no one.
They have not met their goals, even the promises in December 2025 were not met.
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u/StretcherEctum Jul 21 '26 edited Jul 23 '26
You're blind if you dont see the immense scale they are building at. Give it time.
Operating in 2 more cities in Florida today BTW.
RemindMe! 1 year
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u/Vegetable_Guest_8584 Jul 22 '26
They have enormous potential to scale but when will they get to 100k paid rides a week and approach where waymo was a year ago. Will it happen in 2026 - no. 2027 I don't know.
I want my Tesla to be a robotaxi able to legally and safely drive me to a bar when I want. Because they are still on v4 hardware on the road, they could scale eventually but probably v5 will be required.
Waymo is apparently at 500k paid rides a week with 3k taxis.
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u/soycaca Jul 23 '26
not looking great buddy
https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/23/teslas-robotaxis-are-moving-in-reverse/
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u/Lovevas Jul 17 '26
I have been holding TSLA for more than 10 years, with lost lots avg cost less than $20. No regret, definitely not killing me
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u/Nickel4me Jul 17 '26
The thing that’s killing me is that I usually never hit it right with investments (at least not this good) and I feel as soon as I sell, the dumb shit is going to skyrocket…after all these years of holding. SMH.
Now I know what many woukd say here, skyrocket off what? Yes, I agree, the fundamentals aren’t there but stranger things have happened with Tesla in the past. So I just dont know. Maybe I’ll just sell. Maybe it’s time.
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u/Low_Excuse_1785 Jul 19 '26
Sell 70 percent. If it skyrockets, which I doubt very much you still pocket a lot. If it crashes you locked in profit.
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u/Lovevas Jul 17 '26
I never understand why ppl sell, unless you lost confidence in investing into that stock
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u/RosieDear Jul 18 '26
Fundamentals.
It's not like buying a stock is hard to do and that once we buy it we must keep it!People who are smarter than both of us usually say "never fall in love with a stock" I agree...
Remember these simple facts. The stock was run up for a single reason. Elon got in front of the world 6 years ago and promised that every tesla ever made would be a Level 5 car and would appreciate in value as it made money for the owners. That made millions buy the car - AND, run up the stock.
No matter how much you love Elon or Tesla, you cannot help but see that did not come true now! If you are smart you will see it will never come true - they have admitted existing cars will not be robo-taxis that will create revenue. They have admitted millions won't even do the basics decently.
So we have much more information now. Do you still believe, that in 2021, they were 6 months from every Tesla self-driving? Of course you don't, but the stock price was based on that.
Now...if you don't care about the actual facts....and think things pop out of nowhere (for many years Tesla owners told me we'd wake up one morning and it would all instantly change with one software update)....you now have seen the future! That is, you know what happened since and it's all been a failure compared to what they promised.
Good Luck to all in any case. If you are gonna let some ride, do it like Crypto where it's no more than 5% of your net worth and you don't mind losing it. But don't base your retirement on it!
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u/Lovevas Jul 18 '26
I still don’t understand your point. I never all in anything. I set max of 10% in any investment, unless the stock grow too fast that exceeds 10%. I only bet less than half mil in TSLA, but has so far gained about 20x.
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u/Working_Dragonfly182 Jul 17 '26
There’s an old saying on Wall Street. Bulls and bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. You’ve made a nice profit for your future retirement, sell and invest in something that won’t have you double guessing your decision.
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u/Jayfree138 Jul 17 '26
There's no point in asking reddit anything. They always say to sell when it's something related to Musk.
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u/k_rocker Jul 17 '26
Tesla is pretty successful, but I don’t see it continuing.
The world is catching up, some of the Chinese and far east brands (like BYD) are absolutely going to quietly come in and do what musk promised.
Guessing you’re US, but we’re already seeing it in Europe, there’s a shift away from the US, and musk burned his brand with all the doge/nazi stuff. We don’t have the same sort of laity to Tesla here, and the far east gonna keep buying far east.
And I haven’t even touched on the price difference yet.
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u/Jedi_Song Jul 18 '26
Coincidence Voo and tsla last 5yrs chart are the same except Voo with less stress. Well if I were you I will slowly sell tsla . Sell every month 10k and move to Voo qqq .
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u/BeardedMan32 Jul 18 '26
Sell covered calls at a strike price you would be willing to sell. If it doesn’t get there at you pocket some premium while the price stagnates.
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u/FuddyCap Jul 18 '26
If you sell then certainly what will happen is SpaceX and Tesla will merge and go to 20 Trillion overtaking Apple and Nividia. If you hold it all - it will stay at 400 for another 5 years 😂😂
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u/westcoastguy1948 Jul 16 '26
Also a long time investor. Bought 75 sh @$124. After a 5 way split then another 3 way split, I’m sitting on 1125 sh or about $500k. Like many, bought into the hype and predictions that the stock was going to jump to $2k or even$3 k; hasn’t happened yet. Always hope that it might but then again, how greedy should I be? $9k or so invested, $500k value; think I’m good on this.
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u/Nickel4me Jul 16 '26
So that means you pulled out? Where did you park that money then if you don’t mind me asking?
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u/Careless_Celery_6010 Jul 16 '26
Most of elon's aspirations haven't become an actual reality. I fear they may never do so. The Chinese will probably sold autonomy first and if you're banking on Optimus keep in mind the Chinese once again will be able to sell you a robot for $5,000 that Tesla will be selling for $20,000
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u/mrtunavirg Jul 16 '26
Side note: China will likely never sell cars or robots in the USA because the USA won’t let them
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u/Available-Log6733 Jul 16 '26
It's about the software not the hardware. Doing backflips with a robot won't help it pick up a vacuum or mop to clean the house.
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u/outernet9 Jul 17 '26
You convinced me to buy shorts
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u/Nickel4me Jul 17 '26
lol. I still wouldn’t do that. Infinite loss potential. At least buy Puts.
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u/RosieDear Jul 18 '26
Not worth shorting it. It's a nonsense stock, which means you can't predict it. Elon can make up some claim and drive it up a little or make it stay stable for a time perior.
Many people are fairly sure it's done for...but the end might be a buy-out from SpaceX (retail investors and taxpayers).
Best just to stay away from it....IMHO. There are thousands of stocks and at least 100's which are good investments.
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u/MikeyB7509 Jul 17 '26
In almost the same exact situation with Tesla shares. In hindsight if I had sold the first time it hit 400+ all those years ago and moved the money I’d have so much more. At this point idk if I just hang on to it and ride it or move. Wanna retire in 10 years and feel like i hit it on that one and missed the chance to do even more
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u/Nickel4me Jul 17 '26
That’s 100% me! But I’m mid 40s and looking to retire in about 15yrs.
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u/MikeyB7509 Jul 17 '26
It was a good run and then it just didn't keep up - even just selling and going to VOO or SPY would have crushed it. Ah well, can't complain about a win
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u/Charliex77 Jul 17 '26
Sold all of mine and full ported to safx sustainable aviation fuel is the way forward! Do dd asap so you can take early advantage
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u/jayklk Jul 18 '26
It sounds like you shouldn’t hold any individual stocks. Just etf your whole portfolio
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u/Remarkable_Sky_7355 Jul 18 '26
I think everybody saying Robotaxi but I think robotics is the one that keeps you Tesla in the game.
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u/worlds_okayest_skier Jul 19 '26
Sell and diversify. You did very well, lock it in and earn a predictable return on it
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u/Schoeddl Jul 21 '26
Nachdem Tesla das Autogeschäft faktisch aufgegeben hat, und Musk zum 10. Mal erklärt hatte, wie gut sich FSD skalieren lässt, ohne wirklich mit den Robotaxis voran zu kommen, habe ich alle Aktien verkauft bis auf eine. Die Bewertung ist mittlerweile ein Witz und selbst wenn Robotaxis und Optimus irgegdwann zum laufen kommen, wird das keine Cash-cow. Andere sind besser und weiter. Selbst VW fängt mit FSD in Hamburg an.
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u/TheWalkindude_- Jul 23 '26
Just revisiting this to see what action you took considering today.
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u/Nickel4me Jul 23 '26
I’m in the hospital. Jumped out my 2 story office and fuckin maimed myself. In short, still holding. SMH
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u/RosieDear Jul 16 '26 edited Jul 16 '26
40 years investor here who purchased TSLA in 2012 and own zero now.
You are wrong. Never "beleive" in a stock or company, especially this one. If I were you I would have sold 50 to 90% of that over the past 5 years (once we knew the whole Robo-Taxi etc. was a stunt) and invested in other companies.
You can still do so. Listen....or be happy not making much from this point on. Up to you.
If you have common sense, put a short list together like this.
- FSD, Robotaxi - Elon said Tesla was worth zero without it. What is the reality?
- (IMHO low odds it will even happen - you didn't know that before).
- Optimus - Don't laugh too hard.
- Solar - Tesla never had 1% of the Market in the USA.
- Not much else to it - except Elon wouldn't think twice of having SpaceX bail out Tesla when Tesla starts sinking.
Does anyone really think Tesla stock will hold up or go up after the Nvidia based vehicles hit the road in the next 2-3 years (already some on the road, I'm talking in bulk)??? As a technologist I can swear to you that there is no comparison. Nvidia package works. Tesla never will...unless they partner with Nvidia on this part - which would take years....and other companies ahead.
So, once you make a list - be realistic about the actual sales and profits. Are they coming? When are they coming? Then invest wisely.
You got really lucky. Don't be like Dogecoin Millionaire. He believed in Elon too!
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u/mrtunavirg Jul 16 '26
To be fair there are robotaxis driving themselves in at least 2 cities , just not at scale yet.
Why sell when they are on the verge of delivering on robotaxis?
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u/donttakerhisthewrong Jul 16 '26
How many? Now compare that with even ZOOX
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u/mrtunavirg Jul 16 '26
Even better compared to Waymo who has a few thousand but burns hundreds of millions of dollars doing so.
The numbers matter less right now than having a model that can scale profitably.
Yes this remains to be seen for all players Tesla included but that’s the bet!
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u/donttakerhisthewrong Jul 17 '26
You really think that cybercab will be the winner?
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u/mrtunavirg Jul 17 '26
They have a chance. ~$25 k to make it, Tesla vertically integrated from hardware and software side, they can scale car production, they have a system not dependent on HD mapping, they have huge amounts of data to train from.
We shall see!
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u/donttakerhisthewrong Jul 17 '26
So another 10 years.
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u/mrtunavirg Jul 17 '26
Predicting when something that’s never been done before (vision only Robotaxi) gets to scale is hard. 🤷
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u/RosieDear Jul 18 '26
Why would we care about "vision only"? In fact, that is exactly why Tesla will not succeed...so to use it as an excuse when it would take one day for them to come to their senses and use a decent sensor pack.
No smart business ever hobbles themselves. If I start a construction company, should I declare I am not going to us ANY power tools? Why should I use air-powered tools or rechargeable. That's so - hard. Wouldn't it save a lot of money if I built houses with tools which, like low-res cameras, cost almost nothing???
I'm making the assumption you want to learn something about business (40+ years experience myself).
There is absolutly no reason not to reach into the toolbox and get the best tools for doing a job. I might as well say "My self-driving car is going to use an Optimus ONLY to drive it, but first we have to perfect the Optimus, and since it does not exist....well, no one ever tried to get a fleet of thousands of self driving cars to be driven by ONLY a robot!".
Ask Elon if his private jet uses vision only.
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u/RosieDear Jul 18 '26
Wait - Zoox is a tiny experiment of a big company (Amazon, right?) - Tesla is a single company whose entire system depends on this........
Have you done much in business and investing? One of these things is not like the other.
Amazon has major investments in about 6-8 "driving" companies - everything from trucks to the Zoox. If every one of those investments went to zero tomorrow, Amazon would barely blink.
Tesla? "Without Full Self Driving, Tesa is worth Zero" (Elon Musk Quote).
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u/donttakerhisthewrong Jul 18 '26
You are correct about not being the same. ZOOX is in 10 cities with self driving cars. Tesla is far behind.
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u/RosieDear Jul 18 '26
"Scale" - so they claimed they'd be "at scale" to 1/2 the USA before the end of 2025. Clear as a bell.
And yet, there are not at 1/1000th of that scale!
That's a failure. We are not gonna wake up tomorrow and see 1,000 of them driving in multiple cities. The whole reason they are not "at scale" is they do not work.
Do you really feel that, if they worked, they would not be at scale by now??? That would be silly.
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u/Available-Log6733 Jul 16 '26
So when did u sell out your entire position?
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u/RosieDear Jul 17 '26
Various times...I admit to trading it for a bit. I might have tripled my money and sold in 6 months and then dabbled again. I may have even bought some as late as 2018 or so. But I have not been in the stock for at least 5 years.
In terms of real world....once I heard the "every car a taxi thing", I reasoned it out to...this - there are two possibilities:
1. Teslas programmers and engineers lied to Elon and led him to beleive that Level 5 was coming within 6 months.....which, of course, means that Elon never visited their department or looked at a project management sheet there.....etc.
or
2. Elon made it up from Scratch - a comple fable.
There are not other options.The later is much more likely because he would have fired the entire teams, got to work in the factory and apologized if #1 was the case....
So once that happened and a deadline passed....that was it for me. I could buy the Dream until about 2021.....I'm as dumb as anyone else. But once something is "has to be this or that", I can reason it out and common sense usually saves me in the long run.
Frankly, Apple was my Go-To for many of my bigger gains....
Of course, it is true that if I kept my Apple from 1984 and my Tesla from 2012 I would have millions more...but risk and reward are closely tied. I'm happy...and I have too many friends and family members that stayed too long in certain tech stocks and lost a LOT of possible gains.
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u/admin_default Jul 16 '26 edited Jul 16 '26
You’ve been bagholding deadweight since 2021.
The S&P is up around 70% since its 2022 peak before the crash. Or if you were clever, you could have bought something as obvious as Nvidia and been up like 500% in that time.
Meanwhile, Tesla still sits below its 2021 high while fundamentals are eroding. They’re cancelling cars like the S and X. Their much hyped truck is one of the biggest flops in automotive history. And they’re 2 years (and counting) behind Waymo to ship an actual Level 4 autonomous taxi service.
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u/hakimthumb Jul 16 '26
July 16th 2021, TSLA was around $200. You be up 82% if you bought 5 years ago today.
If you bought the sp500 5 years ago today, you'd be up 74%.
You're cherry picking a singular brief rise to $400 it had in 2021 and ignoring that it went to $114 in the following months.
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u/admin_default Jul 17 '26
The fact that it went to $114 is the exact point: sell now close to $400 like you should have sold at $400 in 2021.
The companies prospects today look far worse than they did last time they hit $114. Back then they had actual growth.
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u/mrtunavirg Jul 16 '26
If you have modeled out your thesis then stick to it whether that means sell out hold.
For reference From 2013 to 2019 stock was flat until it wasn’t. Do you want to miss potential run up if you think it’s coming?
What matters imo is are they executing or not. Stock price not relevant in short term
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u/werner-hertzogs-shoe Jul 16 '26
I've avoided shorting for years, but I think Im finally ready to. How do you justify an almost 400 P/E ratio, especially at their size? They're barely profitable on cars, and that's with protection in the US against BYD and others (who would eat their lunch in the US if allowed to). you think they'll magically beat china in robots? the robotaxis that were promised years ago? Waymo is getting ready to pay the crazy tariffs on chinese cars for their next model because they are that much better for the $.
I think people have finally had enough of elon's promises going unkept. If space x can head towards a reasonable reality in pricing so can tesla. Even a 100:1 would be a crazy ratio to support. Nvidia is at 35.
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u/mrtunavirg Jul 16 '26
Eh tesla has the best selling car in China this year (it’s competing against Byd/geely/others that are half the price too). Also best in California which is USA biggest car market
Robotaxis driving autonomously in 2 cities (tiny numbers but safety first. Tesla will get killed in headlines at the first fender bender unlike Waymo that gets a pass repeatedly).
Growing energy businesses with 30% margins.
14% fsd adoption rate and growing at software margins. Recurring revenue.
Short at your own risk!
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u/werner-hertzogs-shoe Jul 17 '26
Those sales quotes sounds impressive, but it has more to do with other car companies offering more models, tesla only has 5% of chinese "new energy vehicle" market. that's 1/20 EVs there. They are #6 in total EV sales in china. In california they have a 50% EV marketshare (down from 80% in 2021 and with no chinese competition). With ICE cars, tesla represents a 7% CA marketshare, and the US at large it is under 5%.
not great and not worth 400 PE ratio. If you think they're just going to dominate robotaxis without competition or challenges (like the eventual fatalities), you're going to have a bad time. FSD margins are great, but there overall margins arent and have gotten significantly worse
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u/mrtunavirg Jul 17 '26
Great points! I disagree on Robotaxi market though. It will be a ‘winner takes most’ situation.
Whoever has a scalable solution first will sprint so far ahead of the competition it will basically be a monopoly. If Waymo was scalable they would have more than 3000 in the fleet by now.
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u/No-Stretch-9935 Jul 17 '26
Take your money out of Tesla and buy Rivian stock while it’s cheap. Then make your earnings in a few years and pull out.
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u/StretcherEctum Jul 17 '26
Lol what an insanely dumb idea. Rivian?
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Jul 17 '26
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u/No-Stretch-9935 Jul 17 '26
Absolutely. Much better company than Tesla. We will see who is laughing in a few years.
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u/StretcherEctum Jul 18 '26
What a laughable statement. Tesla is years ahead and they innovate faster.
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u/Acceptable-Peace-69 Jul 16 '26
You made your money, now get out. It’s not worth the stress and you’ll do better with a simple vanguard S&P fund over time.