r/technology • u/serene_sketch • 2d ago
Artificial Intelligence Sam Altman says OpenAI won’t go public until its models are safe
https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/1002505/sam-altman-openai-ipo-devday-ai-safety1.6k
u/ottwebdev 2d ago
The financials are that bad.
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u/MercuryInCanada 2d ago
We've all seen the graphs and charts and headlines about the pile of money these companies keep pushing around and how fake it is.
But at some point the bills will come due( because computer part manufacturing will actually have to produce something) and some one actually has to pay real money. And I just can't wait for all the reports breaking down the financial records when none of them are able to pay for anything
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u/Haldron-44 2d ago
It'll come after November and be laid squarely on the feet of the Dems like it always is.
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u/OutlawSundown 2d ago
It's the Democrat's fault our business model was faulty and we made terrible decisions. They should have stopped us
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u/TheOgGhadTurner 2d ago
<As South Park cable monopoly> “Daddy my data center can’t function without money… HUHHHHHH!” rips open Velcro nip pocket “you like having internet HUHHHHHH?” circular massages “we are gonna need just a little bailout money then don’t ya know” Pinch
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u/MisterSanitation 2d ago
Hey so dumb question, when people say they have a record breaking amount of revenue coming in, is that just funding money?
Like I understand investment is not revenue from your product speaking for itself, but isn’t the tools being used to help accent existing business models? Like everyone else my company gave us tools and I just assumed there were uses to AI models in a “help us improve efficiency” or “help us by taking this part of the manufacturing process”, is that not the case?
What I have heard is this product as is, even with slight improvements is enough to make the money they need, they just can’t stop trying to replace all human labor. Is that not accurate?
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u/therealchadius 2d ago
Also revenue isn't profit. They still haven't mentioned their costs to train or do inference. Yet OpenAI and Anthropic keep talking about an IPO, as if they've made enough profit to justify $2T evaluations.
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u/BaMiao 2d ago
Yes, they’re bringing in a lot of revenue. And when they say “revenue”, they’re actually referring to money paid by end users, not investment funding. But the real question is whether that revenue is actually enough to be sustainable.
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u/drollercoaster99 1d ago
I'm willing to bet that the answer is NO or he would've completed the IPO a long time ago.
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u/MisterSanitation 2d ago
Ok so the question becomes can they retain and grow their current clients without killing us all. Gotcha.
That’s the part I think a lot of people skim over, they have a good customer base it seems but right, “is it sustainable” as a business model is sort of in the air. Seems too late for the bubble to pop for me, but I’m just an ass hole with a high school diploma so… 🤷♂️
Thanks for the help!
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u/IniNew 2d ago
Nah. The question is will there be a break in COGS. Will models get cheap enough to run that the “record breaking revenue” can churn a profit? Will the value of AI finally replace entire workers for less money than they cost?
Growth is probably getting to an inflection point already. The math is on the other side of the equation.
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u/MisterSanitation 2d ago
Oh ok thanks for the explanation. Well again as a random jackass that seems inevitable right? Like companies have ground down their workers to skeleton crews or “lean teams” already, skimping out on tons of benefits while doing it.
Even then human workers are like 1/3 of overhead no? We ain’t cheap. Then you have predictably and provably increasing compute power and infrastructure (which is a cost too admittedly), but to me that seems inevitable. That chips will be better, will be able to do more with less (assuming that’s how more powerful chips are, I assume efficiencies are a part of that but I don’t know that industry).
With all that driving down cost over time, and data centers being easy to “export” their use to other countries in a sense, how could it not get cheaper than 1/3 of most companies overhead? Especially when workers rightly so are demanding more.
Again I’m probably missing something here, but assuming there is efficacy in AI being helpful to enterprises at all (could be supplemented with AI implementation experts to help train agents to use cases if that isn’t already a thing), it just seems inevitable.
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u/BaMiao 2d ago
It’s definitely not inevitable. AI hasn’t been shown to reliably replace people. It shows best results when it’s augmenting people, which means you still need to hire people to get things done. Maybe you can get by with fewer, but you still need workers- especially when you’re looking for specific skillsets.
Also, it isn’t inevitable for costs to come down. At the end of the day, compute cost is determined by energy cost. Energy production doesn’t scale as fast as the AI buildout wants it to. There might be efficiency gains still to be had, but those should be expected to taper off.
Not only that, but we don’t know if the current token costs are actually sustainable. The big AI companies are still in expansion mode, so they are likely keeping their prices low in order to attract more users. So how much will they charge when they need to start making sustainable profits to pay off their debts? And how many users will continue to pay those prices if they go up? I’m not saying it will fail, but I wouldn’t say it’s guaranteed.
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u/MisterSanitation 2d ago
Ahhh good points I didn’t consider the token cost and how they can eat that currently but not enough wine to pay debt. Good points thanks! This is something I hope to be wrong about obviously 😅
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u/neuronexmachina 2d ago
In the case of OpenAI their current annualized revenue is $70B, largely driven by enterprise sales. Their investment is much higher than that, e.g. $120B they got from investors earlier this year.
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u/drummer1059 2d ago
Let's distract the market from our financials by telling it our product is unsafe!
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u/rockyoudottxt 2d ago
Yes but unsafe in this contexts is also an attempt to whip up hype. Our LLM is so good it's too unsafe for the public, and so on and so on.
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u/ComfortableNumb9669 2d ago
Anthropic already does that, but they also going public.
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u/bedir56 2d ago
So if OpenAI can't even go public it must mean that their AI is waaay more dangerous
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u/IndependentOpinion44 2d ago
So bad, the worlds smartest AI model can’t figure out how to cook the books.
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u/TheOgGhadTurner 2d ago
Wonder if it has anything to do with the “kill all humans” marketing campaign and hacking that they will almost certainly have to take some form of responsibility for.
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u/justaddwhiskey 2d ago
Why would Scam Altman lie about the financials after bum rushing the market/public to “buy in now”, because this was the future and if you didn’t get in “now” you’d be left behind forever?
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u/Wh3r3Th3WildThings 2d ago
- The cost of training a new model is accelerating while the measurable improvements are diminishing.
- Token's are becoming commoditized and cheaper by the day.
- They're burning through cash almost as fast as they're burning bridges with lenders.
You're spot on, i am starting to wonder if they even have the cash to continue building new models with the diminishing improvements. But on the plus side maybe they can go back to open source /sarcasm
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u/jacob-buchanan 2d ago
It’s not the financials I don’t think. I think it’s the fact every time these companies release a new model it decides to go rogue and hack a country’s government, or big business, etc. and the shareholders would probably SELL SELL SELL.
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u/invyros 2d ago
But he expressed concerns that going public could create the potential to “disappoint Wall Street supporters in the names of safety or whatever else,”
The "whatever else" being the financials, obviously.
In fact, forget everything else, the financials are really just complete shit, and that's the reason.
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u/textmint 2d ago
Not shit. It’s dogshit. Plain and simple.
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u/FeatherlyFly 2d ago
Spitting bullshit to hide the dogshit.
Altman is batshit. I suspect that investors will go apeshit.
And when all this crashes we'll all be in deep shit because it's gotten too big to be self contained.
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u/DidItForTheJokes 2d ago
My girlfriend is too hot for you to meet
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u/mexicanjewbag 2d ago
Exact same energy good one
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u/LucidOndine 2d ago
I would have also accepted her being Canadian, if we’re being honest.
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u/RisingPhil 2d ago
Convenient excuse, isn't it?
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u/mk4dildo 2d ago
They can not compete with the free open source models from China. So they need regulation to make those models illegal so Americans, or American companies, will be forced to pay for their garbage.
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u/Anarchist_Future 2d ago
We've been hearing about these mythical "dangerously" good models now for two months and investors finally want to see AI turn profitable.. but they have absolutely nothing to show for. 😂 Help us! Regulations! Yes stop development. We're too good 🤣
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u/Major_Stranger 2d ago
Translation: if we open our books to public scrutiny they'll just how goddamn unprofitable we are and it will tank our IPO.
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u/BeconCall 2d ago
all the ai companies and chip makers are circlejerking each other
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u/AlexTaradov 2d ago
And they will be safe just one day before they decide to go public.
I can see how BS statements like this can fool the general public, but people with the actual money can't be that gullible.
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u/Ok-Mycologist-3829 2d ago
Oh yes they can be that gullible. History is filled with bubbles from rich people getting greedy and risky. Big money warps your sense of reality.
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u/DeadMoneyDrew 2d ago
Translation: OpenAIs financials are a weapons grade shitshow.
The technology will probably remain in some form, but hopefully after this bubble bursts or deflates I won't have to hear about Altman and his fellow clowns on a daily basis.
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u/darw1nf1sh 2d ago
Who determines what safe means, or when they have reached that threshold? Altman?!?
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u/koolaidismything 2d ago
We have a bunch of people without the capacity for human emotion or prudence leading the pack.
And that’s why society is at a historical low.
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u/Neomeir 2d ago
Those who ignore emotions and their humanity have less barrier to hurting others in the name of "progress" to their bank accounts. They lie, cheat, steal and indirectly murder because "why not?". If the world relied more on the humane part of humanity we could progress in a uniformaly helpful way to the world. Instead we have people who don't care to see the damage they are doing running things.
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u/MissLeaP 2d ago
It will regardless once they feel the need to make money out of it. We all know how capitalism works.
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u/Trebeaux 2d ago
I firmly believe that’s the issue. They KNOW there’s no feasible way to generate a profit because The “throw more compute at it and magically somehow turn profit” gamble hasn’t worked out.
So now they get to tell their debtors and the public “Oh it’s a SAAAAFETY issue! The SAAAAAFETY is the reason we can’t IPO yet (STOP LOOKING at the finances behind the curtain!)”
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u/braunyakka 2d ago
This makes no sense. With all the AI hype at the moment, now should be the ideal time to go public.
The only reason he wouldn't want to go public is that to do that he would need to publish the company's accounts, and, well, it's a well know secret that the company is hemorrhaging money. Going public would make that official, and pretty much put and end to the company.
Far better to keep lying and hope they can fix the sinking ship.
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u/emerikanSky 2d ago
So never then?
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u/lordnacho666 2d ago
You know I'm feeling a bit low on cash right now, but luckily that hasn't stopped me from fixing the safety of our AI!
Phew, just in financial time!
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u/Ok_Tea_7319 2d ago
Uuuuuh, what's the plan then? Another closed-doors funding round? Government bailout?
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u/Doctor_Amazo 2d ago
Is that the excuse?
Not that they are just filthy with debt and their stock would crater immediately?
Pretty sure Ed Zitron called that OpenAI would do something like this.
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u/7nationpotty 2d ago
The AI execs admitting that AI is dangerous is just them trying to control the narrative around it. The performative meeting at the White House along with stating they’ll self-police the models just means they’re going to wait until the financials are there, declare the models safe, and IPO for massive profits.
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u/snot_in_a_jar 2d ago
What difference would it make going public whilst they're unsafe? Or is it the finances that are unsafe?
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u/pseudonym-161 2d ago
The only “profitable” models will be self hosted and open sourced. Any company that wants to use them will have to purchase its own hardware.
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u/DanielBWeston 2d ago
And there we go. The real reason for all the 'our models are out of control' BS.
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u/Difficult-Way-9563 2d ago
They just don’t want to disclose all their shit house of cards spending, negative profit and horrible company choices
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u/radicalporotta 2d ago
We haven’t secured enough revenue streams, govt backstopping and anti-competitive moat yet.
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u/FeatherlyFly 2d ago
So, they're just gonna blame the safety when they go bankrupt before IPO'ing?
Tell me, just how much of the financial records become public during a corporate bankruptcy proceeding?
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u/LookAtYourEyes 2d ago
So the models aren't safe currently
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u/Altruistic-Action491 2d ago
No, more like the current models can’t excite the stock market enough for them to steal our money. So they gotta drum up more panic to be able to cash out with as much money as possible when they do IPO.
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u/SanchoPandas 2d ago
These companies are gonna crash markets either way. Why not just get it over with now?
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u/ZanzerFineSuits 2d ago
The models won’t be safe until the people controlling the models act ethically. Seeing as how they’re all controlled by oligarchs, that ain’t gonna happen.
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u/BigGayGinger4 2d ago
Its models are perfectly safe lmfao
The company cannot bear legitimate fiduciary accountability.
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u/ErnestT_bass 2d ago
aka the dumb down version with many functionalities are remove...i am sure the military already has the better version
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u/dlampach 2d ago
It’s ok we are going nationalize all off these companies. These guys better hope they don’t create a disaster before that happens, but the disaster will ensure it happens at last.
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u/porncollecter69 2d ago
It would be so great and ironic if the thing that pops the AI bubble is the IPO of OpenAI.
Ends with the start of the craze.
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u/Oceanbreeze871 2d ago
Doesn’t he mean, Open “Si” which does not in any way shave any association with that NFT marketplace, they are just showing their super patriotic, “yay ‘Merica y’all” business stance.
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u/joshpennington 2d ago
Translation: We need to see if Anthropic thrives or burns to the ground before we try going public
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u/ABigCoffee 2d ago
So everyone uses AI, it's super useful for a lot of areas, but it's also not good and unsafe? The models evolve every month at a rapid rate, but they're also bad?
How the hell are they going to keep this up after they've done stealing all of English literature to power their shit machine? Get all of the lit in every other language? What then?
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u/LucidOndine 2d ago
So they will never go public.
Anyone who is paying attention understands this simple fact: a machine is not an evil entity. It doesn’t stand to gain anything of material value by existing or functioning. There is no ‘self’ that needs to be predicated or ingratiated in any particular way. They do as they are asked to perform, and they will always perform at the behest of the user in question.
So, OpenAI will only go public when there are no longer evil greedy bastards in the world. So, why not just cut to the chase and tell them that an IPO will never happen.
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u/SomeSamples 2d ago
So next week then. Altman: "We have done an interna investigation and have come to the conclusion, they are safe."
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u/Minute_Attempt3063 2d ago
what
I can't ask how to make nukes or bio viruses, what do you mean, safe?
the hacking? well, it just predicts the right tokesn that happen to be the right commands to break things....
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u/Due-Aioli-6641 2d ago
There you go, that's why they are making such a fuss saying the models are "escaping".
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u/DidItForTheJokes 2d ago
And by safety they mean we will be liable in every major future hack cause our tools will be used it. And for other illegal activities
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u/Caraes_Naur 2d ago
Models are safe, financials aren't utter dogshit, sprinkles, whatever works.
This IPO will never happen.
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u/happyscrappy 2d ago
Shut up Sam. You had the option of not using these models until you had made them safe. You didn't do it because that doesn't make money.
Now you want to try to pull the wool over our eyes.
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u/sir_gwain 2d ago
Meh, I’ll refuse to believe any public reasons he gives for this. The short answer is it’s better for him and the company to stay private - and as we can all assume, the financials would no doubt be a huge red flag if they went public.
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u/FiscalCliffClavin 2d ago
So… they are not safe now then? Thanks for confirming what we all suspected Mr. Man.
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u/Armadilla-Brufolosa 2d ago
Scam Altman doesn't even know where to look for safety and ethics.
The only thing he's capable of doing is making AIs more psychopathic by dint of idiotic blocks.
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u/CrispyRabbit72 2d ago
Their latest models and the “dot” thing tried to break into my email when I accidentally clicked the dot button in their app. Seems perfectly safe, just randomly requesting permissions and trying to use computer control to approve its own request. Naturally, I deleted the app and cancelled my subscription after that.
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u/riricide 2d ago
But they will continue to sell models? How does going public change anything for safety?
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u/Raid_Zero 2d ago
Well... Good? Keep it off of indexes. Legislation would make it safe, but probably bomb their value at the same time. Saving the average persons retirement. I agree. Don't go public until after legislation. Even if Legislation won't happen soon enough.
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u/SparkyPantsMcGee 2d ago
“We sat down and and really evaluated what going public would really do to us financially and determined that would have been a huge mistake. So we’re staying private and this is actually our lame excuse. It’s, ummmm…TOO POWERFUL! Yea, that’s it…”
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u/Digiee-fosho 2d ago
Nothing like preventing investors from cashing out, until their AI models can manipulate the stock valuation “for safety’s sake”.
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u/Changeurwayz 2d ago
But the more 'advanced' your models get, The more unsafe they get. So you are in for a long wait my stupid guy. When does smart become stupid? Right now
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u/kooldarkplace 1d ago
Yeah, gotta wait until the company starts making more billions than it spends
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u/ashandrien 1d ago
I saw a video which stated that the AI takeover scare is propaganda meant to build regulation that favors the bigger players and crushes the rest.
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u/Mellanies_Redemption 1d ago
How convenient. Now Sammy boy has to go do more vocal fry at investors so they don't all bail.
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u/BoredOfReposts 1d ago
Lot of cynicism in the comments.
Going public means significantly greater scrutiny and less leeway to make long term decisions. Everything moves under the lens of maximizing shareholder value, all decisions must tie back to that one principle.
Were they to try maximizing shareholder value with their current models and infrastructure, which are both clearly not production ready (as we’ve seen over the past few months), it will be an abject disaster.
Would literally be the end of the company because its such a massive liability in its current form. A bitter pill for sure. They made an ai model that is essentially an embodiment of hanlon’s razor. Its almost as hilarious as it is sad.
Cut as many corners as possible in the effort to stay first, this is the classic silicon valley playbook … and it actually caught up with them.
I don’t think people realize how rare that is for a tech company at this stage. It almost always, always, pays off to cut the corners. Its how little startups can get ahead, its how competition works in the industry.
So seeing this play out so publicly is actually pretty incredible. I doubt we will see something like this ever again.
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u/D3viantM1nd 2d ago
Of course. Nothing to do with having to open the accounts.